2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Giants at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: A few weeks ago, I posted a Mega Man battle video. Here’s another one, which is a group battle:

As someone who grew up playing Mega Man 2 nonstop, I was rooting for them in this video. ATLANTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins entered the Monday night game against the Raiders with no touchdowns and eight interceptions in the previous four games leading up to that contest. Despite the poor showings, this was a perfect opportunity for him to snap out of his horrible funk because the Raiders’ already-poor defense was going to be without Maxx Crosby.

Rather than succeeding, Cousins completely flopped. He threw an early touchdown to Drake London, but did nothing else. He was responsible for just three more points the rest of the evening, as the other five points came via the defense and special teams. Cousins was frazzled by constant pressure from a Crosby-less front, and he heaved some horrible passes to his talented weapons.

The Giants have several injuries on this side of the ball, but they can still generate a quality pass rush. Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux will be able to hound a clearly hobbled Cousins and force him into more mistakes. Cousins will want to lean on Bijan Robinson, but despite Robinson’s great numbers from Monday night, this plan didn’t even pan out very well. Also, the Giants have improved against the run lately, so Robinson isn’t even guaranteed to have a great game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Cousins will be better than his counterpart in this game, but only by default. We don’t even know who the counterpart will be because Drew Lock missed last week’s game with an injury, while Tommy DeVito exited early with a concussion. It could be Tim Boyle, who has no business playing football, whether we’re talking professionally or in the backyard with his friends.

One positive thing you can say about the Falcons is that their pass rush has improved tremendously since the bye. They had one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL prior to Week 12, but have generated a quality pass rush ever since. This is obviously significant against the Giants because New York has several injuries on the offensive line and blocks poorly as a consequence. It’ll be important for the Giants to have Lock or DeVito, both of whom can scramble effectively.

Malik Nabers should still be able to make some great players because of his supreme talent. Tyrone Tracy doesn’t project as well. The Falcons are a surprising fifth in run defense EPA.

RECAP: This line is absurdly high. The Giants obviously have major problems, but the Falcons stink. They’re a Group D team that has no business being favored by a touchdown, let alone 10 points against anyone.

Despite how bad the Giants are, they’ve been competitive against other bad teams this year. They’ve battled five teams in Group D and F, and while they’re 1-4 straight up against them, they also haven’t lost any of those games by more than seven points. Granted, three of those contests were with Daniel Jones at the helm, but the Giants were able to keep recent games against the Cowboys and Saints to seven and three points, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are horrendous. They’ve won one game since Week 9, and that was a six-point victory over the Crosby-less Raiders starting Desmond Ridder. In what world should they be expected to win by double digits?

I have great interest in betting the Giants, but I need to see who the starting quarterback will be. I’d be fine with Lock and DeVito, but I won’t have any interest if Boyle is the starter. I have no idea what Boyle is even doing in the NFL. He must have compromising pictures on someone because I don’t even think he’d make a CFL roster.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m off of this game because Michael Penix Jr. will start for the Falcons. It’s unclear what we’ll get out of Penix, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be worse than a decrepit Kirk Cousins. The quarterback change my energize the Falcons into having their best performance in a while.

PLAYER PROPS: In Drew Lock’s two starts this year, Malik Nabers has registered 79 and 69 receiving yards, with both numbers coming in over the posted prop. There will be plenty of garbage time, and Atlanta’s secondary isn’t very good. The best number is over 67.5 receiving yards -113 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants continue to have lots of injuries, with Brian Burns barely practicing this week. I thought about this, and I’m switching to the Falcons. If Michael Penix Jr. can be substantially better than one touchdown and nine interceptions in a five-game span, then this line is actually a bit too low.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Giants earlier in the week, but other sharp money has come in on Atlanta late. The best line is -9 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -9.

Computer Model: Falcons -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 64% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Falcons -9.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.