2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Titans at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts did a number on themselves last week. They should have gone up 20-7 against the Broncos, but Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball at the 1-yard line. Michael Pittman Jr. then lost a fumble to set up a Denver score. After that, Adonai Mitchell threw a pick-six on a stupid trick play. The Colts turned a sure victory into a double-digit defeat.

The Colts felt as though they needed to resort to a trick play because they were going up against a superior defense that excelled against the run. The Titans can be classified as such as well, as they’ve been getting healthier recently. They’re No. 6 in rush defense EPA, so they should be able to limit Jonathan Taylor pretty well.

The Titans, however, aren’t as good against mobile quarterbacks. They have severe issues at linebacker, so that could be the downfall for them in this game, as Anthony Richardson will undoubtedly be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Colts aren’t nearly as good against rushing attacks as the Titans are. They’re 21st in run defense EPA, so Tony Pollard figures to have a big game. Pollard was limited in his workload last week because of an injury and a big deficit, but he should respond with a bounce-back effort.

Pollard’s running will make things easier for Will Levis, provided he’s even the starter after being benched last week. Levis was horrendous with some mind-numbingly bad turnovers. Levis has an opportunity to redeem himself because the Colts have given up some big games to tight ends and No. 1 receivers this year, but it’s hard to have any faith in Levis.

There’s a chance the Titans could turn to Mason Rudolph once again. Rudolph can be safer with the ball, but he’s also been responsible for some horrendous give-aways this year.

RECAP: It’s not often that the Colts have played against a team worse than them this year. They’ve taken on three Group D and zero Group F opponents. They’re 3-0 in those games, but they’ve won those contests by three, six, and one points. The three-point victory occurred at Tennessee.

The Colts have a decent chance of sweeping the Titans, but I don’t have much faith in them covering the -4. They could do it, but their offense can be so limited, and Tennessee can play good defense against non-elite offenses.

I’m going to side with the Titans at +4, but I can’t bring myself to bet them either because Levis is a pick-six waiting to happen. The Titans may have covered against the Bengals last week if Levis avoided turnovers, but he naturally could not because he has such awful field vision.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like the Colts will be getting back Ryan Kelly and JuJu Brents. The Titans, meanwhile, had nine players with non-rest DNPs on Wednesday, including T’Vondre Sweat and Tony Pollard.

PLAYER PROPS: Anthony Richardson has exceeded this rushing yards prop in five of his six previous games. The Titans are very vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, and in a must-win game, Richardson will do whatever it takes. The best number is over 44.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts may get Ryan Kelly and JuJu Brents back, but they may not be 100 percent in their first game returning from injury. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game, and there are no surprise injuries. The best line is +4 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -4.5.

Computer Model: Colts -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Late money on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 68% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Colts have won the last 3 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.