2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Vikings at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: We’ll begin with the Seahawks because we don’t know who’s starting for them. Geno Smith injured his knee in the second half of the Packers game and never returned after exiting. Slingin’ Sammy Howell replaced him and then proceeded to do nothing but take sacks the entire time.

There’s a huge disparity between the two quarterbacks, and that will be emphasized in this matchup. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, and it’s not even close. Smith is terrific against the blitz. His completion percentage and EPA are actually higher when blitzed compared to when he’s not. Conversely, Howell has a complete meltdown when he sees any sort of pressure.

It’s not like Seattle’s rushing attacks projects well enough for Howell to overcome this. The Vikings are stellar at stopping the run, so Howell will constantly be in long-yardage situations, which can only lead to more sacks and turnovers. Smith would be able to get out of those, assuming that he’s healthy enough to do so.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings have their own quarterback issues. Yes, they’re 12-2, but it’s not like Sam Darnold is playing well for the most part. Darnold’s passes were all over the place against the Bears on Monday Night Football. The announcers blamed it on Darnold banging his hand on an offensive lineman’s helmet on two occasions. If so, perhaps Darnold will be better this week, although that would require him to recover on short rest.

Darnold will need to overcome this issue because the Seahawks tend to cover receivers well. The same can’t be said about their inability to defend tight ends, so T.J. Hockenson could have another big game. The Seahawks are great at getting after the quarterback, and the Vikings haven’t quite been the same since losing All-Pro left tackle Christian Darrisaw.

Turning to the running game may not be very effective. The Seahawks have been able to clamp down against the run for the most part since Leonard Williams returned to health and Earnest Jones was acquired from the Titans. We just saw Josh Jacobs crack through this ground defense, but I’m not sure if Aaron Jones will be able to have similar success.

RECAP: We’re waiting on Smith news. If Smith is able to play and doesn’t seem like he’ll be affected by the knee injury, I’d like the Seahawks. This is the first time the Vikings will have played a team with a winning record since losing Darrisaw. They’re 7-0 since losing Darrisaw, but they haven’t battled any team above Group C. The Seahawks with a healthy Smith are in Group B, so they’d provide the Vikings with a tough challenge they haven’t faced since taking on the Rams during a Thursday night loss.

If Howell gets the nod, I don’t think I’d be able to get off the Vikings. I mentioned how bad Howell is with pressure, so I wouldn’t have any faith in the Seahawks moving the ball. Backup quarterbacks are often poor bets against top-12 defenses, and Minnesota is ranked 10th in adjusted defensive EPA.

It’s only Tuesday, but the latest we have from head coach Mike Macdonald is that Smith is expected to practice and play this week. We’ll see. I’ll pencil in the Seahawks for now, but I will switch to Minnesota if Smith either can’t go or looks like he’ll be severely limited. Seattle will be a big play with Smith, especially considering that the Vikings could be looking past them with battles against the Packers and Lions on the horizon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Geno Smith practiced fully on Wednesday, which is obviously a great sign for his availability and effectiveness this week. I’m going to have a big play on Seattle if Smith plays.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks have been very soft against tight ends. We bet T.J. Hockenson with great success last week, and we’ll do so again. The best number is over 41.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith and the Seattle running backs have no injury designation. I love the Seahawks and will be upgrading this pick to five units.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock this in because there’s sharp money on the Seahawks, so I’m worried about this line falling to +2.5. The best line is +3 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad we locked in the Seahawks because this line dropped to +2.5 because of all the sharp money coming in on Seattle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Seahawks. All of the +3 lines are gone. The best I see is +2.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Vikings battle the Packers and Lions the next two weeks.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

The public is on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 70% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 22-10 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Rain, 50 degrees. Light wind.