2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: 49ers at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: What happened to the 49ers last Thursday? They were so brilliant offensively against the Bears just four days earlier, yet they couldn’t score more than six points against the Rams.

Inconsistency has plagued the 49ers this year, especially in games where Trent Williams has been missing. It’ll be interesting to see if Williams can return following an extended break. He’ll be needed with the Dolphins potentially welcoming back Bradley Chubb to play with impressive rookie Chop Robinson.

Brock Purdy will need the improved blocking because he has his work cut out for him. The Dolphins have talented cornerbacks who can limit his receivers, and Miami’s run defense just put the clamps on Joe Mixon, so Isaac Guerendo isn’t expected to do much. Purdy’s best area of attack will be to George Kittle because the Dolphins do not play well against tight ends.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Kittle won’t be the only tight end who produces on a high level in this game. Jonnu Smith has been excellent in the second half of the season, and his torrid streak should continue in this favorable matchup.

Speaking of good matchups, perhaps the most lopsided of those would occur if the Dolphins don’t get their two tackles back from injury. Both Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm missed last week’s game, and the results were disastrous. Tagovailoa had no time to throw as a result. He also couldn’t lean on the running game at all, but that’s been an issue for the majority of the season.

Either way, Tagovailoa will spend lots of time dumping the ball of to his play-makers. The 49ers will have to tackle well, which is something they have not done this year. They’ve consistently been in the top 10 of missed tackles this season.

RECAP: When in doubt, use the Dolphins rule. Miami beats good teams and loses to bad teams. That’s all they do.

The 49ers obviously would have been classified as a good team – at the very least – prior to the season, but that has certainly changed. They’ve been one of the biggest disappointments this season. They’ve blown so many leads, and they’ve had so many dud performances, such as their 12-6 defeat at home versus the Rams last Thursday.

Then again, the 49ers could be healthier this week. They’ve sorely missed their All-Pro left tackle, but Williams might be back this week after an extended rest period. His return would provide a big spark to the offense and could perhaps re-classify the 49ers as a good team. We just saw San Francisco dismantle the Bears, and if the Dolphins continue to have severe offensive line injuries, then this could be another blowout.

One thing to consider is that the 49ers are practically eliminated from the playoffs, so they may not rush back Williams or anyone else. They’re not technically eliminated, but they need a million things to happen, including the Seahawks and Rams to tie in Week 18. That’s not happening, and they know it.

Given that, I’m going to pencil in the Dolphins, but I won’t have any interest in betting them if their tackles are both out again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Williams, Terron Armstead, and Kendall Lamm were all off to poor starts for the week with DNPs on Wednesday. Based on coachspeak, it sounds like Williams is a long shot to play, so I suppose Armstead and Lamm have a better shot.

PLAYER PROPS: I like the matchups for both tight ends, but George Kittle and Jonnu Smith are so priced up, so we don’t have good value on either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trent Williams has been ruled out. Nick Bosa is questionable after being limited-DNP-limited. The Dolphins had some good news despite Jaylen Waddle being doubtful. Terron Armstead had a limited practice on Friday, while Kendall Lamm had a full practice. Something I noticed is that Tua Tagovailoa was limited twice this week with a hip injury. He doesn’t have an injury designation, but he may not be 100 percent. I’m going to pass on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Tons of sharp money has come in on the 49ers. This line is now -2. I don’t know why the sharps love the 49ers, but I wonder if they’ll feel differently if San Francisco is eliminated by kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers will have Nick Bosa, but won’t have Trent Williams. Miami, meanwhile, will have both tackles available. If that news wasn’t bad enough for the 49ers, they will be eliminated from the playoffs if the Rams hold on to their lead. Despite this, there’s sharp money on San Francisco. The best line is +2 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The 49ers are practically eliminated from the playoffs.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -2.

Computer Model: 49ers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

The public doesn’t know that the 49ers have been eliminated.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 55% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Dolphins are 34-48 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 74 degrees. Light wind.