2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Browns at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This entire section is dedicated to a very “special” person named Kyle Jaber. He replied to me when I commented on someone’s post about AMC:

Most of my tweets are just spam links to this site, which is the goal. Why would I want interaction on Twitter when I can have it here on this site? A simpleton like Kyle wouldn’t understand that, of course.

I love how that’s his insult. “Go work at the tire shop!” What’s wrong with working at the tire shop? Just by saying that, Kyle exposed himself as some sort of trustfund baby with rich parents. He likely hasn’t done a single day of hard work in his life. Instead, his parents have likely gotten him a corporate job he didn’t deserve.

The funny thing is that I made money interacting with this idiot.

I quote tweeted his tire post:

Suffer the consequences? Uh oh! What could that possibly mean? Is he going to tattle on me to his rich parents and demand that I never get a cushy corporate job like him?

Also, what does he mean, “What’s an AMC?” He replied to my comment where I bashed AMC. This guy is even dumber than I thought.

Oh, and I should note that he blocked me, and yet he was the one saying “p***y b***h gets sensitive.”

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’m typing this around 1 p.m., and I’m glad I didn’t do so an hour earlier because the Browns announced that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start at around 12:05 Eastern.

This is a great decision. Jameis Winston is much better than Thompson-Robinson, despite what we saw during his interception parade last week. Thompson-Robinson is a truly atrocious quarterback. Among all quarterbacks who have attempted 60 or more passes since the beginning of 2023, Thompson-Robinson has the second-worst EPA, beating only another Browns quarterback, XFL legend Phillip Walker.

So, why is this a great move? Because it allows the Browns to tank for a better draft pick! Winston could have torched Cincinnati’s atrocious defense. Thompson-Robinson is way too inept to do that. He’ll make some nice plays, particularly with his legs, and Jerome Ford will pick up some nice gains, but Cleveland will be very limited offensively for the most part.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Browns have a great defense, but one area in which they’re sub par is defending the deep pass. We saw this in the Monday night battle when Bo Nix completed several long throws to various receivers.

I don’t need to tell you that this can be exploited by the Bengals. Despite Cincinnati’s record, Joe Burrow is playing at an unreal level. Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins have generated such amazing numbers since the trio was reunited on the field earlier this year when Higgins returned from injury. There were some turnovers last week, but that’s unlikely to transpire again.

I didn’t mention Chase Brown, who has been tremendous as well. Brown has a tough matchup against Cleveland’s stout run defense, but he has proven to be a dynamic receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: My selection was going to be based on what the Browns did at quarterback. In the case of Winston starting, I would have liked the Browns to bounce back from a double-digit defeat. Cleveland has played a bunch of close contests with Winston. The past two games were blowout losses, but they were against Group B teams. This is easier competition than what the Browns have seen since their Monday night affair against the Broncos. They hung tight with Denver, which is a Group C team like the Bengals. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has just two victories of more than seven against non-Group F teams: They won by 10 against the Daniel Jones-led Giants and Titans. That New York game was a three-point affair before a garbage touchdown at the end, while Will Levis imploded last week. Granted, Winston could have done the same, but after last week’s disastrous result, I thought he’d be more careful with the football.

However, the Browns made the right move by benching Winston in favor of Thompson-Robinson. Because of this, I’ll be on the Bengals. Thompson-Robinson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, as detailed above, so the Browns are transitioning to a Group F team with him. Three of Cincinnati’s four battles against Group F teams were victories of seven or more, with the lone exception being the Week 1 loss to the Patriots when the Bengals showed up drunk to the game.

This line has moved from -7 to -7.5 in the wake of the Thompson-Robinson news, but that’s not enough. This line should be -10 at the very least, so I will be betting a few units on Cincinnati.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m considering this as my December NFL Pick of the Month. I usually don’t take favorites as my Pick of the Month, but this has been a year of the favorite. My main point of emphasis here is that the Browns may quit like the Giants did versus the Buccaneers several weeks ago. The Giants benched their superior quarterback, so what exactly do the Browns have to play for with Dorian Thompson-Robinson?

PLAYER PROPS: The last time the Browns faced a strong rushing attack, they gave up 200 yards on the ground to the Saints. Chase Brown just rushed for 90 yards against a tough Titans run defense, so I like his chances here, especially with Cleveland likely mailing it in because of the quarterback downgrade. The best number is over 74.5 rushing yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m pretty sure the Bengals will be the Pick of the Month. The only thing that worries me is that the Bengals had three illnesses, but one of those illnesses was to Sheldon Rankins, who has had some sort of an illness for a while now. Also, this line moved from -7.5 to -9 when Myles Garrett was downgraded in Thursday’s practice, but Garrett will play. Will the line drop as a result to negate the move? Hopefully we can get an -8.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in this pick at 1:25 a.m. on Sunday. Some books have moved to -9.5, so I wanted to lock in a clean -9, which you can still get at BetMGM. This is my December NFL Pick of the Month.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked this one in last night because sharp money has come in on Cincinnati to move the line to -10 in most books. You can still get -9.5 -110 at DraftKings though. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -6.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Decent action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 84% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Browns have won 9 of the last 12 meetings, excluding a game where the Browns sat their starters.

Joe Burrow is 43-22 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 32 degrees. Light wind.