2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Patriots at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: If it wasn’t clear that Josh Allen was MVP prior to the past two weeks, then it is now. Allen threw for three touchdowns and rushed for three more against the Rams, and then proceeded to light up the Lions for 48 points. He seems unstoppable right now.

The Patriots won’t have any response for what Allen and the Bills are doing. New England struggles against mobile quarterbacks, which is not a good feature to have against Allen. The Patriots play poorly against ground attacks in general, so James Cook will have some explosive plays.

Allen will successfully attack New England’s secondary as well. Christian Gonzalez will be able to lock down Amari Cooper, but with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back from injury, Allen has way too many options for the Patriots to handle.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots will want to keep Drake Maye away from Buffalo’s talented pass rushers, so they’ll want to establish Rhamondre Stevenson. There are two issues with this. One, the Bills have shown some improvement against the run lately, ranking 11th against it in adjusted EPA. Two, the Patriots could be way behind and forced into throwing.

As mentioned, Maye will have to deal with Buffalo’s pass rush. The Bills don’t rank very highly in pressure rate, but they blitz at one of the lowest clips in the NFL, so the defensive line’s ability to get to the quarterbacks is underrated. Also, New England’s offensive line is garbage, so Buffalo will easily win in the trenches.

Maye is capable of some big plays, so he’ll be able to put some points on the board. However, most of that will come in garbage time, which is where Maye has exclusively thrived against Group C teams or better. Maye won’t stand a chance while this game is close.

RECAP: Despite their great record, the Bills have had a very difficult schedule. They’ve battled just one team below Group C all year. That was Tennessee, and the score was 34-10. You may wonder about the Jaguars, but when they had Trevor Lawrence, Cam Robinson, and a healthy receiving corps, I had them in Group C. The Bills dismantled the Jaguars anyway.

The point of this is that the Patriots are the Bills’ easiest- or second-easiest opponent all year. Buffalo should win this one going away, just like Miami and Arizona did against them. The one concern is motivation. The Bills are chasing the No. 1 seed, so they may not be flat, but there’s a chance that they could be caught napping after their great victory at Detroit last week. I actually don’t think this will happen because the Bills just had their letdown spot against the Rams, but just wanted to point it out as a possibility.

By the way, if you’re worried about the Bills not covering a line this high, they’re 4-4-2 against the spread as favorites of 14 or more under Allen. That’s not a great record, but it just shows that they can beat the number, and fading a line this high isn’t a winning proposition either.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This game was moved to 4:25 p.m, and it’s projected to be 10 degrees. As for the injuries, all three Buffalo defensive backs who missed last week’s game – Rasul Douglas, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin – were limited in Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bills are very weak against slot receivers. There will be plenty of garbage time for Demario Douglas to eclipse his player prop. The best number is over 34.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: All three defensive backs who missed last week’s game for Buffalo are all questionable with nothing but limited practice all week. Matt Milano is also questionable with limited practices. Milano hasn’t quite been himself since his return, but he still has time to fully recover.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still like the Bills for a few units. I don’t see a reason to lock them in yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I hate the inactives report for the Bills. All of the questionable players are out: Matt Milano, Rasul Douglas, Damar Hamlin, and Taylor Rapp are all sidelined. I don’t like big favorites with cluster injuries, so I’m not going to bet this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is Bills -14 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills just crushed the Lions, but they just had their letdown spot.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -14.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -13.

Computer Model: Bills -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 86% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -14.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 10 degrees. Light wind.