2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Cardinals at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: So much for Bryce Young redeeming himself. Young had been hot heading into Week 15, but the Cowboys completely dismantled him. He was frazzled under pressure and made numerous mistakes as a result.

Young might be able to bounce back this week. Micah Parsons terrorized him last week, but the Cardinals have no such pass rusher on their roster. While Dallas is No. 1 in pressure rate, Arizona is fifth-worst. With a cleaner pocket, Young should be able to keep the chains moving.

The Panthers also figure to have success on the ground. Zach Charbonnet trampled them a couple of weeks ago, and Chuba Hubbard, who has enjoyed some great performances this year, figures to do the same.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, James Conner certainly won his fantasy owners their playoff games last week. Conner was terrific against the Patriots, scoring two touchdowns in the second half.

Conner has another great matchup this week. The Panthers are horrible against the run, ranking way below Arizona in that regard. Only three teams are worse against ground attacks than Carolina.

Conner’s great running will set up Kyler Murray in easy passing opportunities. Murray will have great matchups across the board. The Panthers have allowed some big games to No. 1 receivers this year, and they’ve been horrendous against tight ends. Marvin Harrison Jr. figures to rebound from last week’s dud outing, while Trey McBride will continue to dominate.

RECAP: We were big on the Cardinals last week because they were underrated as a result of their schedule. Arizona had battled no teams worse than Group C all year, so the Patriots were the easiest foe they had seen all season. Combine that with their desperation to win following three losses, and the Cardinals seemed like a very easy play.

The Cardinals aren’t coming off a loss this time, but they can’t afford to lose if they want to keep pace with the two teams ahead of them in the division. Thus, I think the effort will be high, so I believe they’ll win this game. The Panthers are another Group D team that was exposed last week by the Cowboys. They were able to keep games close against unfocused opponents for a stretch, but when a team actually prepared for them, they were dismantled. Arizona will be ready for the Panthers just like Dallas was, so I like the Cardinals enough for a multi-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s early in the week, but there’s sharp money coming in on Arizona. The sharps haven’t done well this year, but it’s still nice to be on the same side as them.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet on James Conner last week and will do the same this week. Carolina’s run defense is atrocious, and Conner is getting more of a workload in these must-win games. The best number is over 82.5 rushing yards -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Paris Johnson is out, which is a bummer because he’s Arizona’s best offensive lineman. I wasn’t worried about it until Friday evening when I saw that left guard Evan Brown was downgraded to DNP at the end of the week with a neck injury. If Brown is out, the Cardinals might be missing the entire left side of their offensive line. That said, the Cardinals have some nice depth on the offensive line, so I don’t anticipate moving off Arizona. In fact, this might be a higher player on the Cardinals because the flu is apparently circulating through the Carolina locker room, with Ikem Ekwonu and Robert Hunt missing practice at the end of the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m hearing that there is some sort of illness floating around Arizona’s locker room. I don’t know how serious it is, but I’m going to downgrade this play from three to two units. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is the standard -5 -110 found at BetMGM and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -4.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Plenty of money on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 73% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -4.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 40 degrees. Light wind.