2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Lions at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions suffered a number of injuries on defense last week. They also lost David Montgomery indefinitely. This one doesn’t sting as much because Jahmyr Gibbs will get more touches, which can be seen as a positive.

Detroit’s offensive line is still intact, so it’ll blast open huge running lanes for Gibbs. The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Gibbs should have a huge game. Gibbs was on track for a big performance against Chicago on Thanksgiving, but fumbled inside the 5-yard line, then barely saw any action in the second half. He’ll be looking to redeem himself.

Gibbs’ great running will open play-action opportunities for Jared Goff. The Bears can clamp down on top receivers, but they allow plenty of production to tight ends, so a healthier Sam LaPorta figures to thrive.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: As for the Detroit defensive injuries, the team lost Alim McNeill and Carlton Davis, which were two big pieces of the stop unit. McNeill was a terrior in the interior of the defensive line, while Davis had been enjoyed a great bounce-back season as one of the starting cornerbacks. They’ll sorely be missed.

However, the Lions may not miss them very much in this game. The Bears have no offensive coordinator because their interim offensive coordinator was promoted to interim head coach, which has predictably led to two games in which Chicago has been completely discombobulated offensively. The Bears made tons of mistakes against the Vikings, and that’ll continue on a short week.

One area in which the Bears can succeed is throws to Keenan Allen because the Lions give up lots of production to the slot. However, Detroit can clamp down on the run, so D’Andre Swift won’t get anything on the ground, putting Caleb Williams in unfavorable down-and-distance situations.

RECAP: I loved the prospect of backing the Lions at -7.5, which was the advance spread, and then at -7, which was the line on Monday. The Bears were blown out at Minnesota, so I thought the spread would move back up to -7.5. Instead, it has fallen to -6.5. What gives?

I’m not sure, but I’ll take it as a gift. The Bears have no real head coach and no offensive coordinator, so they don’t stand a chance against superior teams. They were blown out at San Francisco and Minnesota, and I’ll be shocked if they’re not blown out again this week.

It’d be one thing if the Lions weren’t focused, but they will be. They’re coming off a loss in a marquee game. Dan Campbell has done well in these spots, owning a 5-1 ATS record after a loss as a favorite. That’s obviously a small sample size, but backing great teams following a defeat is a winning strategy.

One last thing is that the weather will be discussed because Goff is often far worse outdoors. The weather is projected to be 28 degrees. However, it’ll be sunny and not windy, so I don’t think that will impact Goff very much.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I got a scare when I looked at the injury report and saw that 10 Lions players were DNP on Wednesday, but eight of those were for rest. The Bears, conversely, have two offensive linemen with DNP tags related to concussions.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m looking to bet Jahmyr Gibbs over rushing yards. David Montgomery is out, while Chicago’s run defense sucks. The best number is over 89.5 rushing yards -115 at ESPNBet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Frank Ragnow isn’t on the final injury report, so I love the Lions and the Jahmyr Gibbs prop. Conversely, the Bears might be down two offensive linemen. I know the Lions have suffered several injuries, but they may get back stud safety Ifeatu Melifonwu back on the field for the first time all year. Also, Jaylon Johnson was DNP on Friday with an illness. His absence would be very painful for Chicago’s defense.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking this in at 3:25 a.m. I was hoping to see some movement to -6, but some books have gone to -7. A couple of books still have -6.5 -110: BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Emmanuel Moseley is returning this week, which helps a bit with Detroit’s injuries. This is another game in which we locked in last night that moved toward our side. Some sharp money on Detroit has moved this line to -7 in most places. You can still get -6.5 -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions will look to rebound off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.

Computer Model: Lions -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Plenty of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 88% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Dan Campbell is 5-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Lions -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.