2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Jaguars at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Pediatrician’s Appointment. What could possibly go wrong when I took one of my kids to the doctor for the first time?

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s difficult to handicap this game because we don’t know if Aidan O’Connell will play. Wait, did I just type that? I never thought I’d care if O’Connell would be able to suit up for a game, but this is where we are.

O’Connell said he’d play Monday, but he never logged a single practice. Instead, it was Desmond Ridder, who was utterly awful until the final two drives against Atlanta’s prevent defense. One might think that Ridder would have an easy matchup against the Jaguars, but he enjoyed a similar great spot against the Falcons, but failed to take advantage of it. He was so bad that he was incapable of connecting with Jakobi Meyers on a single occasion until the final couple of drives.

The Jaguars are just as bad against the run compared to the pass. The Raiders won’t be able to take advantage of this either, so that’s why O’Connell’s presence will really determine Las Vegas’ ability to score.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe that Mac Jones looked like a viable quarterback last week. Sure, he did stupid stuff like running out of bounds for a 7-yard sack and throwing a couple of interceptions. However, he was able to move the chains well in between the 20s.

Though Jones only has one of his remaining play-makers around him in Brian Thomas Jr., he should be able to move the chains on the Raiders, who have a poor defense. Maxx Crosby is out, so the diminished pass rush won’t affect Jones too much. Jones should be able to lean on the run as well with the Jaguars possessing one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: I can’t see myself betting this game. These are two of the three worst teams in the NFL, and they’re both quarterbacked miserably. Besides, we don’t even know who the Raiders’ quarterback will be.

If the Raiders start Ridder, I’ll be on the Jaguars, albeit for no units. The Raiders benefit more from losing because they need a quarterback, and the only way to get one next offseason is to finish with one of the two top picks in the NFL Draft. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are showing more fight at least.

O’Connell would give the Raiders more of a chance. I might consider backing the Raiders at that point, but I still may fall on the Jaguars. Either way, I won’t be betting this game unless one team suffers catastrophic injuries during the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aidan O’Connell practiced fully on Wednesday. With it appearing as though O’Connell will suit up, I’m going to switch my pick to the Raiders, but I’m very far away from betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aidan O’Connell will return. I thought about changing my pick to the Raiders, but I didn’t for two reasons. First, Jordan Meredith, who has been the Raiders’ best offensive lineman since the midpoint of the season, is doubtful. Also, three Raiders missed practice with an illness on Friday, so the flu could be going around the locker room.

PLAYER PROPS: Brenton Strange was a monster last week with 11 catches. I like him again here against the Raiders, who can’t stop tight ends at all. The best number is over 37.5 receiving yards -111 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no interest in this game aside from the Brenton Strange play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no urge to bet this game, but the sharps are on the Raiders. The best line is +2.5 -105 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -1.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Everyone is betting the Jaguars. OK.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 76% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 65-111 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Raiders are 19-35 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.