2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Rams at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: It took Aaron Rodgers a while, but we’re now seeing the future Hall of Famer finally play up to his expected level. Rodgers hadn’t played his best for a long while, but he’s caught fire the past two weeks.

Perhaps we should have expected Rodgers to take a while. He was a 40-year-old (now 41-year-old) coming off an Achilles tear. It makes sense that it would take him more than a year to recover. Then again, Rodgers has gone up against two teams that can’t rush the passer recently. That’ll be different this week, as the Rams rank in the top 10 in pressure rate. Rodgers is not protected very well because of injuries, so Los Angeles will be able to bring the heat, perhaps negating Rodgers’ sudden great connection with Davante Adams.

Rodgers hasn’t needed to lean on his rushing attack the past two weeks, but he may have to do so in this game. The Rams are 22nd against the run, so with another week of recovery time, Breece Hall could have a nice performance.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While Rodgers taking more time to recover than expected should have been predictable, it’s incredibly surprising how poor the Jets have been defensively. They can’t stop anyone. Mac Jones looked like Tom Brady against them last week, save for a couple of passes that were intercepted. The Jets are 25th in adjusted defensive EPA even though they were expected to be in the top five this year.

The Jets can’t stop the run at all, which was prevalent this past week when Travis Etienne gashed them with ease in the first half. If the Jets couldn’t contain Etienne, how will they deal with Kyren Williams, who just looked great versus San Francisco?

Williams’ great running will make things easier for Matthew Stafford. His receivers would normally have impossible matchups against the Jets’ talented cornerbacks, but those corners haven’t been able to cover anyone this year. Brian Thomas Jr. and Tyreek Hill just had huge performances the past two weeks, so Puka Nacua figures to post some amazing stats.

RECAP: The Jets have been such a huge disappointment this year, but they’ve done well the past two weeks. They led the entire time against the Dolphins and ultimately lost in overtime, and then they scored 32 points against the Jaguars on the road. Perhaps they can talk themselves into building something for next year.

That sentiment may end this week for a couple of reasons. First, the Jets are a bad team, and I like fading bad teams coming off victories because those sort of teams often struggle to sustain success.

Second, this is a step up in class for the Jets. This should not be surprising in the slightest, but the Jets have really struggled against Group A and B teams this year. They’ve had six games against those caliber of teams, and they are 0-6 straight up and 0-5-1 against the spread against them.

I would classify the Rams as a Group B team with their receivers being healthy. They’ve had impressive victories at San Francisco and Seattle recently. They also took down the Bills. They’re extremely well coached, while their defense has improved a lot lately. Their stop unit should be able to keep Rodgers in check, while their offense won’t have any issues against New York’s horrible defense. As a bonus, they’re also coming off extra rest, which Sean McVay will be able to use to his benefit.

If you couldn’t tell, I love the Rams this week. Except, I don’t. Here’s why: This game doesn’t mean much for the Rams. If you don’t believe me, I urge you to plug in the results in the NFL Playoff Machine, which you can find via a Google search. If the Rams win this game and the next one, they’ll still miss the playoffs if they lose to the Seahawks in Week 18, provided Seattle beats Minnesota, which is very possible if Geno Smith plays this week. Both the Packers and Redskins have tie-breakers over the Rams, so a wild card spot isn’t a realistic option. This all comes down to the Week 18 showdown versus Seattle.

I don’t know if the Rams will know this. If they do, they could take this game lightly, especially when considering that they’re coming off two huge wins against the Bills and 49ers. Thus, I would urge you to be cautious here because while the Rams are much better than the Jets, they could just be completely disinterested in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Quinnen Williams, Michael Carter, and Alijah Vera-Tucker all missed practice on Wednesday. It’s still early in the week, but all three absences would be huge, particularly Williams.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m not in love with anything in this game, so I’ll pass.

SATURDAY NOTES: Michael Carter is out, though D.J. Reed will return this week. Quinnen Williams is questionable, but he was DNP in practice all week. Nothing has changed for me regarding a potential bet on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Quinnen Williams is out for the Jets, which is a big loss for them. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -3 -105 at Caesars and DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

This game means nothing to the Rams.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.

Computer Model: Rams -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Decent action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 79% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Aaron Rodgers is 133-96 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-22 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Sunny, 25 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.