2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Texans at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes’ status is obviously in doubt in this game in the wake of his high ankle sprain. Andy Reid said that Mahomes could have returned if needed, but I would like to call BS on that one because Mahomes could barely walk as he limped off the field upon suffering that injury. However, it should be noted that Deepak Chona, a sports medical analyst, said that he expects Mahomes to play on this high ankle sprain because Mahomes did so before, albeit in the Super Bowl.

Even if Mahomes is sidelined, the Chiefs project well against Houston’s defense. The Texans have been poor in two areas this year. The first is against the run. Isiah Pacheco should be getting better each week, and he’ll finally be needed here with Carson Wentz or a hobbled Mahomes at the helm.

The other area in which the Texans have struggled is when it comes to missed tackles. They are fourth in the NFL in missed tackles this year, so Mahomes dumping the ball off on short tosses to his weapons could prove to be effective, especially when targeting tight ends because the Texans have been poor against tight ends this year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans aren’t dealing with major injuries on this side of the ball, save for Stefon Diggs. However, they have their own glaring issues on offense.

The Texans have struggled with poor play-calling all year. They’re first in early-down runs. When they battle a team that can’t stop the run, this is great. However, they often put C.J. Stroud in long-yardage situations when going up against a strong rush defense. That’s exactly what the Chiefs have. Kansas City will be able to limit Joe Mixon, meaning Stroud will be going up against a dangerous pass rush on third-and-long all the time.

Stroud won’t be shut out or anything, however. The Chiefs have some major liabilities in their pass defense. Nico Collins will be able to make some big catches. There will also be an opportunity for the Texans to utilize Dalton Schultz because Kansas City has been very weak against tight ends, but Houston hasn’t used Schultz as much this year for some reason.

RECAP: It’s odd that a 13-1 team would have more to play for than a 9-5 team, but that’s the case in this game. The Chiefs are still fighting for the No. 1 seed, while the Texans have clinched their division and have no upward mobility. They are stuck with the No. 4 seed. They could actually sit their starters the next three weeks, and it wouldn’t affect them at all.

The Chiefs may not have Mahomes, but that could be seen as a positive for this game alone. Good teams tend to rally around backup quarterbacks, and Wentz is a premium reserve. Despite this, there was a six-point line shift toward Houston with the advance spread being Kansas City -4. This is way too much of an overreaction, especially when the team receiving those six points has nothing at stake.

I like the Chiefs to rally around Wentz and win this game. The Texans are a mess anyway with their poor blocking and tackling, and I don’t see that being resolved on a short work week. I’ll mark this down as TBA for now because of Mahomes returns, I won’t want to back a hobbled quarterback, even if he’s the best player in the NFL.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully, so he’s going to play. This has caused the line to go from +2.5 to -3.5. I want no part of Kansas City with Mahomes being potentially hobbled, so I’m going to change my pick to Houston. However, I don’t really want to bet the Texans because this is a meaningless game for them as a result of being locked into the No. 4 seed.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Texans have allowed big performances to every tight end they’ve battled recently. In fact, the past two tight ends they’ve gone against have caught a combined 16 passes. Patrick Mahomes won’t be able to run as much this week, so he’ll target Travis Kelce more than usual. The best number is over 49.5 receiving yards -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

We’re throwing the Kelce receiving prop into a same-game parlay at FanDuel because they have the better payout. The other legs are Dalton Schultz over 36.5 receiving yards, Joe Mixon over 21.5 receiving yards, and Noah Gray over 22.5 receiving yards. Like the Texans, the Chiefs also struggle against tight ends, so both Schultz and Gray make sense. Meanwhile, Mixon’s receiving workload has increased ever since Stefon Diggs went down for the year. This $25 parlay pays $258.76 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report, so he’ll play. I don’t trust him to be 100 percent, however, so Houston would be tempting if this game meant anything to them. I don’t plan on betting this game, but I’d side with the Texans if I had to bet either team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Texans. The sharps are on the Chiefs, although at +3 or lower. The best line is Texans +3.5 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Texans have nothing to play for.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Houston: 64% (138,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 97-25 SU, 64-56 ATS (50-43 ATS when not favored by double digits.) ???

Chiefs are 13-31 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 35 degrees. Light wind.