2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Eagles at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Josh Allen is the MVP frontrunner right now, but Saquon Barkley was considered to be following the initial matchup between these teams. Barkley had a great performance on a Thursday night, gashing the Redskins for 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

There’s no reason to think that this game will go any differently. Barkley has a tremendous matchup against the Redskins, who are dead last in run defense EPA. Barkley is even well rested from last week because he didn’t have much work, so he’ll ready to have explosive plays against Washington.

Barkley’s running will continue to make things easier for Jalen Hurts. DeVonta Smith is back at full strength, so it’ll be difficult for the Redskins to fully contain Philadelphia’s aerial assault, especially given that they’ll have to concentrate on Barkley.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins didn’t nearly have as much offensive success in that aforementioned Thursday matchup. The stats don’t look too bad for Jayden Daniels, but keep in mind that much of Daniels’ production came in garbage time. Daniels had severe issues moving the chains otherwise.

It must be noted that Daniels wasn’t fully healthy for that game because of a rib injury. He’s fine now, so he should be better in the rematch. However, this is still an incredibly difficult for matchup for him and his receivers. Philadelphia’s secondary is excellent, and Daniels won’t have much running room because the Eagles understand how to deal with mobile quarterbacks.

Daniels won’t get much help from his running game. Brian Robinson mustered just 3.9 yards per carry in the initial matchup, which was even better than expected because the Eagles have one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: The Redskins are a good team, but they haven’t exactly been tested this year. They’ve battled just three teams in Groups A and B all season. All three games were losses. They lost by eight to the Eagles, seven to the Ravens, and one to the Steelers. The rest of their games have been against Group C or worse.

The Eagles should be able to prevail. They’re coming off a win, and they already beat the Redskins already this year, so this may seem like a poor motivational spot. However, this game is for the division. Good teams will often get up for a game if they’re told they can accomplish something great like winning their division.

It’s odd that we’re getting -3. This line opened up -3.5, but despite the action on the Eagles, this line has fallen to -3. This indicates that the sharps are on the Redskins. This doesn’t mean as much this year because the sharps have been horrible, constantly backing bad underdogs. The Redskins aren’t bad, but they are substantially worse than the Eagles, who, again, should be motivated.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenny brought up a great point that Saquon Barkley might be limited this week based on an injury he suffered last week. Barkley was DNP on Wednesday, but only for rest purposes. Zach Ertz was DNP with a concussion.

PLAYER PROPS: I want to bet Saquon Barkley, but I need to make sure he practices fully on Friday. Update: I’ll be betting Barkley after he practiced fully on Thursday and Friday. The best number is over 94.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Saquon Barkley practiced fully on Thursday and Friday, so nothing to be worried about in that regard. I still like the Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp action coming in on the Eagles, but nothing substantial. The best line is Eagles -4 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 77% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 12 of the last 15 meetings.

Jalen Hurts is 10-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Redskins are 22-35 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 29 degrees. Light wind.