2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Steelers at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 37-33 ATS through 14 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Falcons -4

Bengals -5

Vikings -7

Redskins -7.5

Steelers +5.5

Cowboys +2.5

The public won their top three plays, and four of their top six. The public is now 41-35.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Jaguars -1.5

Bills -14.5

49ers +1.5

Broncos +3

Packers -13.5

Two double-digit favorites, one road favorite, and two underdogs. Nice variety this week!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have two major injuries that will impact the result of this game, with one on both sides of the ball. Offensively, George Pickens’ status is crucial. Pickens has missed the past couple of games with a hamstring issue. We’ve seen the offense capsize without him, and understandably so. He was the only downfield threat, so without him, Russell Wilson has been forced into utilizing lesser players like Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin.

Having Pickens will be so important against the Ravens. Baltimore’s pass defense has been notoriously horrible this season, and Pickens can expose their weakness. If Pickens isn’t available, Wilson won’t be able to throw very well into the Ravens’ secondary.

If Pickens is out, the Steelers won’t be able to move the chains at all. Their running game will be defunct against the Ravens, who have one of the top ground defenses in the NFL.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The defensive injury for the Steelers is to T.J. Watt. The elite edge rusher got hurt against the Eagles. Our latest update on him is that Mike Tomlin said that the “door is ajar” for Watt to play this week.

I don’t need to tell you how crucial Watt is for any matchup because he’s one of the best defensive players in the NFL. However, he’s so important for battling the Ravens because the talented edge players are how the Steelers can keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket. Pittsburgh has built its defense to contain Jackson, and it’s had so much success doing so. The Steelers won’t have that same sort of success without Watt.

If Watt is in, I don’t think the Ravens will accomplish much offensively despite their high seasonal rankings. They won’t be able to run very well with Derrick Henry, and Jackson will struggle as well. If Watt is out, things will certainly open up for Jackson.

RECAP: We need to know the status of two significant Steelers before we can properly handicap this game. Pickens is essential to Pittsburgh being able to throw the ball downfield and attack Baltimore’s greatest weakness. Watt is vital to the defense being able to contain Baltimore’s top strength, which is obviously Jackson on the move.

If Pickens and Watt both play, I’ll be on the Steelers. This spread is far too high with Baltimore being an overrated team. The Ravens have some severe issues, and they’ve only blown out three teams this year, so I would be shocked by a touchdown-plus victory.

On the other hand, if Pickens and Watt are out or severely limited, it’ll be tough to back the Steelers. If Pittsburgh can’t throw the ball or stop Jackson from scrambling, how can it possibly compete with Baltimore?

I’m going to pencil in the Steelers for now, but I’ll have updates later in the week. Check back soon, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Pickens was DNP on Tuesday and Wednesday. T.J. Watt was DNP on Tuesday, but limited on Wednesday. We’ll see what the final injury report says, but it’s looking like this may be a zero-unit pick on Baltimore.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Pat Freiermuth’s production has increased ever since George Pickens got hurt. Pickens is out again, and Freiermuth has an easy matchup against Baltimore’s poor defense against tight ends. The best number is over 35.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM.

We’re parlaying the Freiermuth over receiving yards at FanDuel once again even though that line is over 36.5 at FanDuel. The other legs in the parlay are Calvin Austin over 37.5 receiving yards, Zay Flowers over 60.5 receiving yards, an Isaiah Likely over 24.5 receiving yards. George Pickens is out, so Austin looks good. Meanwhile, the Ravens have some injuries at receiver, so Flowers and Likely are logical plays. This $25 parlay pays $243.38 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The good news for the Steelers is that T.J. Watt will play, so they’ll be able to contain Lamar Jackson again. The bad news is that George Pickens will be sidelined once again, so the offense will be dreadful. I’m going to side with the Steelers, but for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: T.J. Watt will play, while George Pickens will not. The Steelers will be able to contain Lamar Jackson, but how will they be able to score with no downfield threat? I still lean toward Pittsburgh, but I can’t bet either side. This sharps are on the Ravens for what it’s worth. The best line is +7 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -5.

Computer Model: Ravens -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Sharp action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 64% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 63-35 ATS as an underdog.

Russell Wilson is 34-16 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 36-19 ATS as an underdog.

Lamar Jackson is 12-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.