By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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As we close in on the start of the 2017 season I’ll be giving you my fantasy projections for each team. To do that I’m using Twitterer @JustinFreeman18‘s helpful spreadsheet. To get yourself one, you just need to donate $10 or more to Support No Kid Hungry and show him your receipt in an email. The Excel workbook he gives you allows you to enter total plays, rush/pass ratios, rushing and receiving workloads, and target shares – all with helpful information like those ratios and percentages for the coaches and offensive players for the past three seasons. Check it out and maybe feed a kid while you’re at it!
The Baltimore Ravens threw the ball more than any other team last season and finished 20th in points scored. They would love to run the ball more and effectively, but a poor offensive line, a suspended back in Kenneth Dixon, a below-average Terrance West and a receiving specialist in Danny Woodhead will most likely keep that from happening.
The Ravens may be better defensively than last season, but the lack of a running game will inevitably keep their defense on the field longer than it should be, wearing the defenders out as the games move into the fourth quarter.
Last season, Joe Flacco and company threw the ball 65 percent of the time versus running the ball just 35 percent of the time. The next closest were the Detroit Lions, who threw it 63 percent of the time. Like I said, Baltimore would rather get those percentages closer together to balance the offense, but I expect the team’s “running” game will often consist of short passes to Danny Woodhead. I have the Ravens set up for a 36/64 rush/pass ratio in the spreadsheet, and unless Kenneth Dixon really comes on in the second half, I expect it will be close.
As far as total plays go, John Harbaugh’s team has hit 1,002, 1,056 and 1,045 over the last three seasons, with those last two under offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. Baltimore’s upgrades to the offense this off season were to the passing game, which really makes it even more likely Flacco will end up throwing the ball a ton, which means Baltimore will once again be near the top in total plays, which I pegged at 1,050.
Here are my assumptions for the percentage of runs and targets for the more relevant fantasy players, which then spit out projections, which you will see below.
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | |||
| Terrance West | |||
| Danny Woodhead | |||
| Kenneth Dixon | |||
| Jeremy Maclin | |||
| Mike Wallace | |||
| Breshad Perriman | |||
| Mike Campanaro | |||
| Ben Watson | |||
| TEAM | |||
| Rush Mkt Shr | Yds/Rush | Rush TD Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 30% | 3.9 | 2.5% | |
| 15% | 4 | 2.5% | |
| 40% | 4.5 | 2.5% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 7% | 0 | 0% | |
| 8% | 4.1 | 2.3% | |
| ———- | ———- | ———- | |
| 100% | 3.9 | 2.3% |
| Tgt Mkt Shr | Yds/Rec | Rec TD Rate | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 4% | 5.8 | 2.4% | 69% |
| 15% | 6.7 | 3.7% | 76% |
| 7% | 6 | 3.8% | 70% |
| 20% | 11.6 | 4.8% | 65% |
| 16% | 13 | 3.5% | 55% |
| 13% | 14 | 4% | 59% |
| 5% | 9 | 1.7% | 80% |
| 10% | 8.9 | 6% | 65% |
| 10% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| ———- | ———- | ———- | ———- |
| 100% | 9.22 | 3.6% | 59% |
| Int Rate | QB Snaps |
|---|---|
| 2.3% | 99% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 1% |
| ———- | ———- |
| 2.3% | 100% |
Breaking down Baltimore’s running backs is a fool’s errand, but I’m just the fool to try! I am no fan of Terrance West, and if the Ravens want a running back who can get more than what is blocked for him, they should be champing at the bit for Kenneth Dixon to return from suspension in Week 5. Dixon should beat out West for touches once he returns, but if Woodhead can stay healthy, he likely will be a target hog, hurting Dixon’s overall value.
Joe Flacco just isn’t a very good fantasy quarterback. He finished as the 20th-best fantasy quarterback last season, but finished second in attempts with 672 to Drew Brees’ 673. Brees happened to finish third in fantasy points. The additions of Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead should help Flacco this season and if he was a better player, I would be on board with him as a sleeper pick, but as it is, I just can’t trust him, as his track record speaks for itself in fantasy.
Flacco should pass for a ton of yards. Last year, he finished with the seventh-most yards and gave three players over 100 targets. This season, the target leader should be Jeremy Maclin, who will take over where Steve Smith left off in the slot. Maclin might have trouble getting into the end zone, but the targets and receptions should be there.
The same is true for Danny Woodhead, who could end up leading the whole team in targets if he stays healthy. Last season, Dennis Pitta led the team in targets and was awful. Woodhead and Maclin are big upgrades in the short passing game that Flacco will likely be immersed in.
This year, we likely won’t see the big target numbers for the tight end position with Woodhead and Maclin in place and due to a dearth of talent at the position. The Ravens have a slew of tight ends, but none are ready to break out, while the presumed starter, Ben Watson, is 37 years old and coming off an injury.
The Breshad Perriman and Mike Wallace hype fell off after Jeremy Maclin was signed, but there still are a lot of targets to go around and Wallace and Perriman will be working deeper down field than Maclin and Woodhead. I expect Perriman will cut into Wallace’s work enough to keep Wallace from another 1,000-yard season and likely hurt both of their upsides, but there is some value there in a pass-happy offense.
These projections, of course, are a best-case scenario as far as injuries are concerned, but I do believe the additions of Maclin and Woodhead are a boost for Flacco, and in this offense, both Maclin and Woodhead should be the top targets, giving both of them nice PPR value. I’d be all-in on Maclin this season if I felt the Ravens would be more efficient and spend more time in the red zone, but they will need their offensive line to stay healthy and improve, and for Flacco to play his best football, for any of their offensive players to get into the end zone enough to make a big impact on Flacco and Maclin’s fantasy stats.
Here are my Ravens projections based on .5 PPR scoring:
