By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
As we close in on the start of the 2017 season I’ll be giving you my fantasy projections for each team. To do that I’m using Twitterer @JustinFreeman18‘s helpful spreadsheet. To get yourself one, you just need to donate $10 or more to Support No Kid Hungry and show him your receipt in an email. The Excel workbook he gives you allows you to enter total plays, rush/pass ratios, rushing and receiving workloads, and target shares – all with helpful information like those ratios and percentages for the coaches and offensive players for the past three seasons. Check it out and maybe feed a kid while you’re at it!
The Arizona Cardinals didn’t make many drastic changes to their team this season, but will get a healthier John Brown, Tyrann Mathieu and Jared Veldheer back for 2017. Carson Palmer had a poor first half of last season and took a beating behind a suspect offensive line as the team finished 7-9. This year shouldn’t be terribly different from last year, but the Cardinals do have a light schedule as they play the AFC South, NFC East, Detroit and Tampa Bay outside their stronger home division.
When setting up this season’s total plays and rush/pass ratio, I didn’t want to veer too far from last season’s numbers. The Cardinals will again lean heavily on David Johnson, but should have better luck in the deep passing game if John Brown can stay healthy.
Over the last three seasons, Bruce Arians has finished with 964, 1015 and 1045 total plays with run/pass ratios of 41/59, 45/55 and 38/62. I’ve set the Cardinals totals for 2017 to 1020 plays with a 41/59 ratio. I believe Arizona should have a few more leads this year, which will allow the team to run the ball a little more often, and not always with David Johnson.
Here are my assumptions for the percentage of runs and targets for the more relevant fantasy players, which then spit out projections, which you will see below.
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | |||
| David Johnson | |||
| Andre Ellington | |||
| Kerwynn Williams | |||
| Larry Fitzgerald | |||
| John Brown | |||
| J.J. Nelson | |||
| Jaron Brown | |||
| Jermaine Gresham | |||
| TEAM | |||
| Rush Mkt Shr | Yds/Rush | Rush TD Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 1.2 | 1.9% | |
| 71% | 4.4 | 4.2% | |
| 5% | 5.5 | 2% | |
| 10% | 4.5 | 3% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 12% | 4.1 | 2.3% | |
| ———- | ———- | ———- | |
| 100% | 4.4 | 3.7% |
| Tgt Mkt Shr | Yds/Rec | Rec TD Rate | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 17% | 9 | 4.8% | 68% |
| 5% | 11 | 2% | 75% |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 22% | 10 | 5.4% | 63% |
| 18% | 14.4 | 6.5% | 55% |
| 8.5% | 17 | 6% | 50% |
| 4% | 15 | 4.3% | 60% |
| 12.4% | 10.36 | 4.8% | 66.4% |
| 13.1% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| ———- | ———- | ———- | ———- |
| 100% | 10.2 | 4.6% | 54% |
| Int Rate | QB Snaps |
|---|---|
| 2.4% | 99% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 1% |
| ———- | ———- |
| 2.4% | 100% |
Johnson does want to see the ball 30 times a game, which isn’t that far from his 24 touches last season, but it really would be a crazy amount, especially if the Cardinals can shore up the offensive line and get Brown back on track. They very much need to get the ball down the field instead of relying so much on Johnson, and if things go as they’d like, the scoring opportunities would go up for him, but the total touches would likely fall a bit.
Last season, Johnson saw 74 percent of all rushing attempts and 19 percent of the passing attempts. I expect the rushing share to regress just slightly to 71 percent and the target share to also drop a couple percentage points to 17 percent due to some help from his teammates and what I assume is the hope of the team to not completely use Johnson up before his 27th birthday.
I currently have Le’Veon Bell ahead of Johnson as the No. 1 draft pick, but I’ve also picked Johnson in that spot this season. They are both at the top of their game and both have similar upsides.
Palmer, if he can stay healthy, should see a boost in passing touchdowns with the help of Brown, but Palmer will likely have some down games, like last season. Overall though, he’s in a great offense and played well to end last year. He makes for a nice late-round value.
Larry Fitzgerald has started hot the last two seasons only to cool off as the year drags on. This is likely due to his old body slipping away into the ravages of time, but there’s no doubt he’s still the main target for Palmer. The trouble now is that Fitzgerald doesn’t have the explosiveness that he once had and his yards per catch have fallen as he’s become more of a possession receiver. The good news is that there’s more hype for John Brown this season and Fitzgerald is going under the radar a bit. Fitzgerald should still be a strong play, especially in PPR leagues.
I’m high enough on John Brown this season to push him ahead of Fitzgerald in non-PPR points. We saw what Brown can do when healthy back in 2015 when he caught 65 passes for over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns. I think we can get a similar season out of him this year, even though I’m being slightly more conservative.
The backup running backs aren’t really exciting, as none would be able to take on Johnson’s workload and there would be a committee with Kerwynn Williams as the likely early down back and Andre Ellington as the receiving back. Both would have fantasy value of course, but neither is worth rostering in your average fantasy league.
Rookie Chad Williams will likely be behind Jaron Brown, but his upside is likely higher than Brown’s if he could move his way into playing time. Williams is much more suited for a dynasty bench spot than anything in redraft though.
You can see my projections below here. If this passing game can really get back on track, I do expect those passing/receiving yards to get a boost, but I don’t want to go overboard with Palmer, who still needs a squeaky clean pocket to do big time damage.
