By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
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As we close in on the start of the 2017 season I’ll be giving you my fantasy projections for each team. To do that I’m using Twitterer @JustinFreeman18‘s helpful spreadsheet. To get yourself one, you just need to donate $10 or more to Support No Kid Hungry and show him your receipt in an email. The Excel workbook he gives you allows you to enter total plays, rush/pass ratios, rushing and receiving workloads, and target shares – all with helpful information like those ratios and percentages for the coaches and offensive players for the past three seasons. Check it out and maybe feed a kid while you’re at it!
The defending NFC champions will look quite similar to last year’s offense, which of course is a good thing since they led the league in points scored last year. The biggest loss will be offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who went to San Francisco to try to resuscitate that flailing franchise. The Falcons plan on running the same offense, now under Steve Sarkisian. Their numbers were crazy last season, and a repeat will be tough, but the personnel are still there.
I believe there will be some natural regression after such a sustained offensive outpouring, and with the Falcons’ defense improving over the season last year, I expect the defense to be more of a factor this year, which in turn could make them more conservative if opponents aren’t scoring.
Last season, the Falcons were extremely efficient, running just 958 plays, ranking them 26th in the league, but they also scored the most points in the league, averaging 32 per game. It will be tough to keep that extreme efficiency going, but they will no doubt continue to run fewer plays than other teams in comparison to their points scored. I expect the Falcons to run a few more plays than last year, so I’ve tabbed them at 987 total. Their rush/pass ratio was 44/56 last season. With a stronger defense, we should see a few more rushing attempts, which has me setting Atlanta’s ratio at 45/55 this season, which isn’t much of a difference.
Here are my assumptions for the percentage of runs and targets for the more relevant fantasy players, which then spit out projections, which you will see below.
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | |||
| Devonta Freeman | |||
| Tevin Coleman | |||
| Terron Ward | |||
| Julio Jones | |||
| Mohamed Sanu | |||
| Taylor Gabriel | |||
| Justin Hardy | |||
| Austin Hooper | |||
| TEAM | |||
| Rush Mkt Shr | Yds/Rush | Rush TD Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | 3.4 | 0.6% | |
| 54% | 4.8 | 5.2% | |
| 28% | 4.4 | 4.5% | |
| 3% | 4.1 | 4% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 1.8% | 11 | 10% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 0% | 0 | 0% | |
| 5.4% | 4.1 | 2.3% | |
| ———- | ———- | ———- | |
| 100% | 4.6 | 4.5% |
| Tgt Mkt Shr | Yds/Rec | Rec TD Rate | Catch Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 13% | 8.5 | 5% | 83% |
| 8% | 10.5 | 7% | 78% |
| 1% | 9 | 3% | 70% |
| 27% | 15.08 | 6% | 67% |
| 15% | 11.1 | 5% | 70% |
| 10% | 16.3 | 5% | 71% |
| 6% | 9.45 | 6.5% | 66% |
| 15% | 12 | 7% | 70% |
| 5% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| ———- | ———- | ———- | ———- |
| 100% | 11.77 | 5.5% | 67.9% |
| Int Rate | QB Snaps |
|---|---|
| 1.8% | 99% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 1% |
| ———- | ———- |
| 1.8% | 100% |
The dynamic between Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman should stay the same as long as both remain healthy. Coleman isn’t going to go away anytime soon, which is probably just fine for Freeman, as he’s still getting goal-line looks and doesn’t get worn down with the full workload. Last season, Coleman’s rushing touchdown rate was 6.8 percent and his receiving touchdown rate was 7.5 percent. Those numbers will be tough to match, but this offense is set up for quick strikes, and I expect overall the rates will stay higher than average across the board.
Last season, Matt Ryan upped his career averages by big margins, and I expect him to build off those numbers instead of regressing to his norm, but that doesn’t mean he will up his stats. Instead, I believe he’ll keep many of his good analytics, but it will be a monumental task to keep the same pace in game-to-game averages for 16 games like last season.
Julio Jones continues to dominate when healthy, but his foot has hurt his overall value in fantasy, as well as his severe lack of red-zone targets last season. Those targets should move up to normal ratios this season, and I expect his touchdown numbers to improve. The only worry is that nagging foot. The good news is that he’s played through the injury and continues to put up good numbers, just not the numbers that would keep him as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, which he is talented enough to be.
Austin Hooper should make a big jump this year and be a strong red-zone target for Ryan. Jacob Tamme is out of the picture, and Hooper has shown he can handle the job, both as a blocker and receiver. He likely won’t get the top-end targets he would need to be a top-five fantasy tight end, but he could accumulate a goodly amount of touchdowns in this potent offense. I have him conservatively at five, but could see that number rise.
Mohamed Sanu hurt his shoulder last season, but even if he’s healthy, I don’t expect him to be a major target as long as Jones and the running backs are fully involved.
Taylor Gabriel can do a lot of things, but he’s still only a part-time player and it’s hard to bet on his touchdown efficiency from last season. He’s an interesting best-ball league candidate due to his play-making ability, but consistency will be tough for him to find this season.
The Falcons have a strong group on the offensive line and a good core of young defensive players, which makes it easy to predict another winning season. The trouble is figuring out which offensive players will continue to put up numbers and how much an improved defense and new offensive coordinator will impact those numbers. I expect another strong offensive showing from the Falcons, but finding that same intensity and game flow on offense will be tough to replicate.
Here are my Falcons projections based on .5 PPR scoring:
