2016 Fantasy Football: Rookie Dynasty Draft

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Published May 18, 2016

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We just completed our rookie draft in my dynasty league, and I thought it might be helpful to some out there to see how it played out. This draft did include free agents, so they aren’t all rookies, but there weren’t many good free agents out there, so the majority are rookie picks. This is a 14-team league, so the value will be slightly better for those in 12-teamers.

When picking rookies in dynasty leagues, I usually favor wide receivers since they have more longevity as a pro versus running backs, but you of course also need to think of your roster. If you are severely devoid at one position and you feel like the pick is a toss up, then go with the position you need, but remember that most rookies aren’t making a huge impact Year 1, so think longer term whenever you can.

1.011Adam LevitanElliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
1.022Patrick DaughertyColeman, Corey CLE WR
1.033Sigmund BloomTreadwell, Laquon MIN WR
1.044Mike ClayDoctson, Josh WAS WR
1.055Patrick DaughertyFuller, Will HOU WR
1.066Chet GreshamThomas, Michael NOS WR
1.077Seth TrachtmanShepard, Sterling NYG WR
1.088Josh NorrisDixon, Kenneth BAL RB
1.099Mike ClayHenry, Derrick TEN RB
1.110Ryan Van BibberProsise, C.J. SEA RB
1.1111Raymond SummerlinPerkins, Paul NYG RB
1.1212Mike ClayCarroo, Leonte MIA WR
1.1313Fantasy DoucheBoyd, Tyler CIN WR
1.1414Pete PriscoHooper, Austin ATL TE
Round 1:
The consensus No. 1 pick is Ezekiel Elliott as it should be. He's already going in the first round of many re-draft leagues, and is poised to be a top back behind the Cowboys offensive line for as long as he can stay healthy.... The Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson picks all went about as ADP has shown. Treadwell has been going ahead of Coleman, which I agree with, but nothing abnormal here.... Will Fuller did go a bit earlier than expected, with ADP slotting him as the 10th-overall pick. I especially dislike the Fuller pick due to all of the talent with good opportunities this season that was available with the sixth pick.... Thankfully, I was left with some pretty good players to choose from with the seventh pick, with Sterling Shepard, Derrick Henry, Michael Thomas and Kenneth Dixon. Besides Elliott, these four are probably my favorite rookie picks this year. My team is pretty weak at wide receiver, so that's where I was leaning from the start, so it came down between Shepard and Thomas for me. I like both quite a bit, and would be happy with either, but I went with Thomas as I think his touchdown potential is a little bit higher.... The next three picks played out as I figured they would. After those it became less predictable. C.J. Prosise is getting quite a bit of hype right now, and I believe it is deserved. I don't see him doing all that much this season, but his long-term upside is quite high. With this rookie draft not being as full of great players as some, I feel like Prosise has the upside to make him worth a first-rounder for sure....

2.0115Fantasy DoucheDrake, Kenyan MIA RB
2.0216Patrick DaughertyMitchell, Malcolm NEP WR
2.0317Chris BurkeHoward, Jordan CHI RB
2.0418Ryan Van BibberBooker, Devontae DEN RB
2.0519Chris BurkeHiggins, Rashard CLE WR
2.0620Chet GreshamGoff, Jared RAM QB
2.0721Seth TrachtmanLynch, Paxton DEN QB
2.0822Evan SilvaMarshall, Keith WAS RB
2.0923Seth TrachtmanWentz, Carson PHI QB
2.124Fantasy DoucheSmallwood, Wendell PHI RB
2.1125Raymond SummerlinThomas, Mike RAM WR
2.1226Mike ClayHenry, Hunter SDC TE
2.1327Adam LevitanWashington, DeAndre OAK RB
2.1428Pete PriscoPayton, Jordan CLE WR

Round 2:
Round 2 has some nice players, but none I would consider no doubters, because I have plenty of doubt. This is why I'm either trading my pick or going with someone I think has a lot of upside if they happen to play up to their potential. I was leaning Carson Wentz when deciding between him and Jared Goff, but I think Goff has a similar upside and should be the better of the two to start their careers. I currently have Drew Brees and Tony Romo, so this wasn't a must pick for me, but both of my guys are getting up there in age and I think it's worth rostering a young quarterback in your dynasty leagues.... There are also plenty of running backs who have decent opportunities for playing time this season. Most will be dropped from your dynasty team in a year or two, but the opportunity is too hard to pass on. Kenyan Drake, Jordan Howard, Devontae Booker, Keith Marshall, Wendell Smallwood and DeAndre Washington all should be able to push the incumbent running back and win the backup job on their respective teams. I'm not as high on Drake or Howard as some, but really with this group, it is a bit of a crapshoot. The opportunity is probably the best reasoning to grab one from this group.... I'd probably grab Henry Hunter over the wide receivers picked in this round. As long as he stays healthy, he is slotted in as the starting tight end for the Chargers after Antonio Gates retires, and Hunter has enough ability to be a Top-10 fantasy tight end when he's starting.

3.0129Seth TrachtmanCooper, Pharoh RAM WR
3.0230Pete PriscoMiller, Braxton HOU WR
3.0331Fantasy DoucheErvin, Tyler HOU RB
3.0432Josh NorrisHeuerman, Jeff DEN TE
3.0533Pete PriscoWilliams, Jonathan BUF RB
3.0634Chet GreshamCollins, Alex SEA RB
3.0735Patrick DaughertyHigbee, Tyler RAM TE
3.0836Nick MensioWatson, Terrell CLE RB
3.0937Josh NorrisJones, Cardale BUF QB
3.138Chris BurkeRobinson, Demarcus KCC WR
3.1139Ryan Van BibberDeValve, Seth CLE TE
3.1240Evan SilvaTamme, Jacob ATL TE
3.1341Raymond SummerlinBoehringer, Moritz MIN WR
3.1442Pete PriscoSharpe, Tajae TEN WR

Round 3:
Tyler Ervin is probably the running back in the third round with the most immediate opportunity and upside. He has Lamar Miller ahead of him, and I like Miller, so this isn't about bad competition, but it does look like Miller is the only back on the team who we can easily say is ahead of Irvin. Irvin could also see time in the offense as a receiving option this year, and has the ability to be a three-down back if Miller goes down. I'm sure Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes aren't going to go away completely, but Ervin's upside is worth it in the third round of your rookie draft.... I took Alex Collins based less on upside, but more on his steady ability that I think would give him early down work if Thomas Rawls were to be injured.... As far as fliers go for quarterbacks, I like Cardale Jones a lot. He was not a good fit with the spread offense and should prove to be a strong drop-back pocket passer if given the right tutelage.... Jeff Heuerman is an interesting pick if your rookie draft also allows you to grab free agents. The Broncos don't have a top tight end, and Heuerman is expected to fight for the starting job this summer.

4.0143Adam LevitanFerguson, Josh IND RB
4.0244Patrick DaughertyKessler, Cody CLE QB
4.0345Sigmund BloomPeake, Charone NYJ WR
4.0446Raymond SummerlinLasco, Daniel NOS RB
4.0547Pete PriscoWilds, Brandon ATL RB
4.0648Chet GreshamBraverman, Daniel CHI WR
4.0749Chris BurkePrescott, Dak DAL QB
4.0850Fantasy DoucheLouis, Ricardo CLE WR
4.0951Chris BurkeVannett, Nick SEA TE
4.152Chris BurkeMoore, Chris BAL WR
4.1153Raymond SummerlinDuarte, Thomas MIA TE
4.1254Evan SilvaEllington, Bruce SFO WR
4.1355Sigmund BloomGarrett, Keyarris CAR WR
4.1456Pete PriscoBarber, Peyton TBB RB

Round 4:
This is the round you will be extremely lucky to get a long-term player, but it does happen. Any player you get from here on out has major flaws that they will need to address, and that can often mean moving around the league before. Keyarris Garrett is probably the most well-known pick from this round. Garrett fell further than some thought he would and wasn't drafted, but did land in Carolina after the draft as a UDFA. I thought about him over Daniel Braverman, but I just liked Braverman a bit more, but I could see Garrett having a bit more upside if he can live up to his potential.... I will most likely pass on Dak Prescott in rookie drafts this year. He could provide some rushing numbers to boost his value if he can get on the field, but I just don't like his ability as a passer enough. I doubt he'll see the field anytime soon.

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