2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Cowboys at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Football is back! It’s been a long summer, but the 2025 NFL season is finally here. We’ll be posting our picks every Tuesday, as usual.

We had a losing season last year, but we did very well Week 8 onward. I realized then that I was falling into some stupid traps, so I made the correct adjustments and went 79-63 between Weeks 8 and 17. I do an audit of my picks during the summer and discovered other things that could really help us this year. I’m expecting a massive 2025 season.

Also, if you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. We already have features available for premium subscribers like detailed injury reports. We’re also working on some other things as well. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

At any rate, I’m looking forward to this season. I’ve done a lot of research this summer to refine my handicapping. We’re coming off a great year, and I think this season could be even better!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Eagles’ offense because that’s where the news is concerning this game. I’m referring to the Micah Parsons trade, of course (check here for the NFL Trade Grades.) The Cowboys already had some holes on their defense, and now they’ll be missing Parsons, who really enhanced the unit last year when he played. When Parsons missed action, Dallas’ defense was far worse.

With Parsons gone, the Cowboys won’t generate much pressure on Jalen Hurts. The reigning Super Bowl MVP will be able to do whatever he pleases in the pocket. He’ll also run circles around the Cowboys and their weak linebacker corps, which won’t have DeMarvion Overshown anytime soon.

The greatest mismatch on this side of the ball is Philadelphia’s front versus Dallas’ weak defensive line. The Cowboys struggled against the run last year, while the Eagles run the ball better than any team in the NFL. Hurts and Saquon Barkley will eat up big chunks on the ground.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys won’t be able to stop the Eagles, so their only chance of being competitive in this game is to keep pace with them on the scoreboard. I imagine some people will believe this is possible because Dallas possesses big fantasy names like Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, but I don’t believe this is true.

The Cowboys have two big problems on this side of the ball, especially pertaining to this matchup. The first is that their offensive line is mediocre. They have some injuries up front, and they already weren’t very good in that area. The Eagles have one of the top defensive fronts in the NFL, so they’ll be able to win in the trenches rather easily on this side of the ball.

The second issue is that the Cowboys have a one-dimensional offense. They have absolutely no running game to speak of, which means they’ll be easy to defend. Elite defenses can devour one-dimensional offenses, so Philadelphia won’t allow Dallas to do very much.

RECAP: There’s a huge disparity between the Eagles and the Cowboys. Philadelphia is an elite team, ranked in Group A of the NFL Power Rankings, while Dallas is a Group D squad. This spread should be about -10, so I like the Eagles to cover.

The only thing that worries me concerning this spread is that because it’s north of seven, we’re going to be open to a back-door cover. With the Chiefs on the horizon next week, the Eagles may take their foot off the gas in the second half, which would allow Dallas to sneak within a touchdown in the final minutes. Then again, the Eagles absolutely hate the Cowboys, so they may decide to step on their arch rival’s throat.

I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Eagles. I think the best thing to do with them this week is tease them down to -1.5. We’ll need to find another leg for this teaser, which I will do in the coming days.

LOCKED IN: This spread has moved to -8 in most sportsbooks. It’s even jumped to -8.5 -105 at DraftKings. FanDuel still has -7.5 -110 available, so let’s locked that in right now. Note that $25 of this bet will be boosted 50 percent, which is a promo available on FanDuel. Another will be a no-sweat for $10. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked in the Eagles at -7.5 because this line is now -8.5 at many sportsbooks. It wouldn’t shock me to see a -9 at some point on Thursday to potentially get people off Philadelphia teasers. There are no injuries of note here outside of the players who were already on PUP.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Jake Ferguson over receiving yards tonight. The Cowboys will be playing from behind, so they’ll be throwing the ball often. Ferguson has a great matchup, given that the Eagles have a tight end-funnel defense. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings is offering a parlay boost up to $15. We’re going to bet Jake Ferguson over 38.5 receiving yards, DeVonta Smith over 54.5 receiving yards, Saquon Barkley over 95.5 rushing yards, and Eagles -5.5. Smith should have a big game like he did versus Dallas last time because A.J. Brown is bothered by a hamstring injury. Barkley figures to trample over Dallas’ poor defense. And the Eagles -5.5 is safer via a back-door cover scenario. This $15 parlay pays $168.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

wAlt Line: We’re looking at a wAlt line for tonight, which would be Eagles -19.5 +285 at DraftKings. We can get a slightly better number elsewhere, but DraftKings is offering a no-sweat bet up to $25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys continue their stupidity by activating Miles Sanders over Jaydon Blue, the only running back on Dallas’ roster who has any explosive ability. Unbelievable. Anyway, there was sharp action on the Cowboys at -7.5 and a bit at -8, but not at -8.5. You can still get a great -8 at BetMGM for -102 vig. Good luck to those tonight and for the rest of the season. Let’s have a great year!

TOUCHDOWN SCORING BETS: DraftKings has a couple of boosts. They’re listing Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown at +150 instead of their normal price of -145. They’re also offering a 50-percent boost on a touchdown scorer, so we’re going to take Saquon Barkley from -175 to -116. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

LIVE BET: Just bet the Eagles -3.5 +105. Not sure how much longer this Cowboys charade will continue. I got that line on DraftKings, but it has since fallen to -3.5 -110. You can still get -3.5 -104 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Eagles -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Decent money on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 67% (398,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.