NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 0-0 ($0)
2025 NFL Picks: 9-2-1 (+$890)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 7, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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DENVER OFFENSE: It didn’t matter who the quarterback was. The Broncos looked like the Greatest Show on Turf in the preseason. Both Bo Nix and Jarrett Stidham piloted the offense with great precision, as the running backs, receivers, and tight ends all made big plays.

The preseason can be misleading, but the offensive firepower will once again be apparent in this game. The Titans are in the running to have the worst defense in the NFL. Their pass rush took a big hit with Harold Landry departing. Neither Landry nor departed cornerback Chidobe Awuzie were properly replaced, so Nix will have plenty of time in the pocket behind his stout offensive line to locate Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram and the other receivers for big gains.

The Titans still at least have Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat on the defensive line, so they figure to be better against the run than the pass. However, Sean Payton’s new joker, R.J. Harvey, could have success as a receiving threat out of the backfield versus some awful linebackers.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: If the Titans still had their quarterbacks from a year ago, this would be a total blowout. Neither Will Levis nor Mason Rudolph would stand a chance against Denver’s strong defense.

Cam Ward is a much better passer. He is making his first start, so there are bound to be mistakes, but he’s accurate and possesses great mobility. He’ll be able to make plays with his legs to keep some drives alive. There will be mistakes, however, especially because Ward won’t be able to rely on his top receiver, Calvin Ridley, who will be smothered by Patrick Surtain II.

RECAP: I don’t know what to make of this game. I can make arguments for taking both sides. When it comes to siding with the Broncos, fading Ward in his first start seems like a smart idea, especially when considering that he’ll be playing against a great defense in a tough Mile High environment. We saw Jayden Daniels get debacled in his first start last year at Tampa Bay, and while I like Ward as a prospect, he’s no Daniels. This could get ugly for Ward.

So, why not back the Broncos? Because Sean Payton has an abysmal track record in his first couple of weeks of an NFL season. This is not a small sample size either. Payton is 3-18-1 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season since returning from suspension. That’s right. He’s 3-18-1 against the spread. This includes some outright losses as a big favorite, including a defeat to a bad Buccaneers squad when he and Drew Brees were favored by 10 at home in New Orleans.

I don’t know why Payton sucks in the first two weeks of the season, but I’m not about to stand right in front of a 3-18-1 train and put my money on that side. Perhaps we’ll see both elements in this game, where the Broncos get out to a big lead, but surrender a back-door touchdown at the end.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some -8.5 lines have appeared, and there’s even a -9 at Caesars. If you like the Titans, wait until kickoff because there’s an outside chance that you could nab a +10.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos won’t have Dre Greenlaw, which is the most prominent injury heading into this game. Of course, Denver could still cover without him. I saw one known Broncos analyst proclaim on Twitter that this was a trap game for the Broncos. Trap for what? Does he really think the Broncos are looking ahead to the Colts? I know it’s the Battle of the Horses, but still.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t understand why Courtland Sutton’s receptions prop is priced at 4.5. He had at least five receptions in every game last year beginning in Week 8, save for one, which was the infamous Battle of the Horses. Bo Nix targeted Sutton seven times in one half alone in the final preseason game. The best number is over 4.5 receptions -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have taken the Broncos to -9. I guess they have no issue standing in front of the 3-18-1 Sean Payton train.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned in the morning, the sharps are on the Broncos. This line has risen to -9 in some books, and there’s even a +9.5 -109 available at BetRivers. I still have no interest in betting this game, however.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Broncos -11.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 55% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Sean Payton is 3-18 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of thunderstorms, 83 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers had so many injuries last year, they were unrecognizable by the end of the season. There are still some injuries, especially to the receivers, but the team is much healthier now. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams, all of whom weren’t there at the end, will be playing in this game.

The Seahawks have built a stout defense, but I don’t trust the linebacker corps. This presents a big problem against Christian McCaffrey. While McCaffrey has a very low chance of remaining healthy all year, he’ll thrive at the beginning of the season, and he’ll be able to take advantage of this liability.

The 49ers will be able to attack the middle of the field with George Kittle as well. Kittle had a monster performance in his one game versus Seattle last year, and he’ll thrive once again to open the 2025 season.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the 49ers have lots of returning personnel, the Seahawks do not. Their quarterback and top receiver from a year ago are gone, with Geno Smith and DK Metcalf now with the Raiders and Steelers, respectively. The Seahawks brought in Sam Darnold to replace Smith, which is an immediate downgrade. Darnold played like a Pro Bowler last year, but won’t perform nearly as well in Seattle.

Darnold figures to get off to a rocky start with his new team. Nick Bosa, who is also returning from injury, will be hounding Darnold, who won’t receive the appropriate blocking from his offensive line. Darnold won’t be able to lean on two talented receivers like he did in Minnesota. He has Jaxson Smith-Njigba, but no one else who’s proven. I like rookie Tory Taylor, but this is just his first game.

The Seahawks will try to run the ball as much as possible to keep Darnold safe. Fred Warner, who was limited with injuries last year, will be at full strength to help clamp down on the run. However, the defensive tackle talent in front of him is very questionable. Seattle will move the chains on the ground better this year because of the additions of Grey Zabel and Robbie Ouzts, so Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet could do well to keep San Francisco’s offense off the field.

RECAP: It’s hard not to be optimistic about the 49ers this year, at least in the regular season. They’re healthy now, and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL. In fact, it’s the easiest schedule I’ve ever seen in my 26 years of covering the NFL for WalterFootball.com. Their toughest game is at Houston! What a joke.

I believe the 49ers will cover more often than not in the regular season, at least while they’re still relatively healthy. They have issues at receiver, but are fine otherwise, and that includes McCaffrey. The star San Francisco back won’t be healthy all year because of his chronic Achilles tendinitis, but he’s fine now. Enjoy betting on him while you can!

I can’t say I’m as high on the Seahawks. Darnold was able to benefit from elite offensive coaching and Justin Jefferson last year. He doesn’t have that in Seattle, so I’m not expecting the Seahawks to be as good as the 49ers at full strength. Thus, I’m backing the 49ers at -2.5, but I don’t see a significant betting angle in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I feel like the Seahawks are a hipster pick. People are taking them because Sam Darnold was so great with the Vikings last year. Well, Darnold no longer has Justin Jefferson or Kevin O’Connell aiding him. The love for Seattle seems unfounded, but then again, maybe San Francisco’s roster is too diminished.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought we’d get Christian McCaffrey drama this year, but I didn’t believe it would occur in Week 1! McCaffrey has been downgraded with a calf every day this week, failing to practice on Friday. Everyone with the 49ers has said McCaffrey has a good chance of playing, but that’s what they told us last year. I don’t trust anything coming out of San Francisco, so we’re going to have to wait until 3 p.m. on Sunday to see if McCaffrey can go. His status will reflect my pick unit size.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Kyle Shanahan said Christian McCaffrey will play, but I won’t believe it until I see it. We’ll revisit this around 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey is active, but at what capacity? It’s hard to trust anything here. I’m going to lay off the 49ers. The sharps are betting this game either. If you want to bet San Francisco, the best line is -2 -110 at both BetRivers and Bet365. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: 49ers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Lots of late money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 70% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: 49ers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Seahawks are 31-19 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 22-11 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 83 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: We have to begin our pick analysis on this side of the ball because of a huge trade that occurred this offseason. I’m talking, of course, about the Packers acquiring Darian Kinnard from the Eagles. OK, OK, it’s Micah Parsons, arguably the best defensive player in the NFL. The Packers had a mediocre pass rush last year, but that will obviously be strengthened by Parsons’ presence.

Another big addition the Packers made this offseason was acquiring Nate Hobbs. He’s an excellent slot cornerback, so he’ll be able to slow down Amon-Ra St. Brown a bit. This is obviously not ideal for Jared Goff, who needs everything perfect around him to succeed against top competition. Goff won’t have that here, as he’ll be dealing with Parsons on the edge and interior pass rushers skating by his underwhelming interior linemen who will be tasked to replace Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler.

Ragnow and Zeitler being gone will hurt the rushing attack. Ben Johnson’s creativity will be missing as well. Jahmyr Gibbs could hit some explosive plays, but the consistency with the rush won’t be there this year.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Lions are missing personnel on their defensive front as well, as Alim McNeill isn’t healthy enough to take the field after suffering an injury late in the year. The Lions will have Aidan Hutchinson back on the field, but the defensive line is not at 100 percent.

The Packers have a strong offensive line that will be able to protect “No Cookie” Jordan Love fairly well. Love won’t have Jayden Reed at his disposal, but he’ll able to make use of his new deep threat, Matthew Golden. With former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn gone, there could be some breakdowns in the secondary.

Green Bay should be able to establish the run, too. Josh Jacobs was highly effective last year, and with McNeill sidelined, the Lions could allow some big runs.

RECAP: I’m not surprised that as of Tuesday evening, the Lions are getting more action than any other team in the NFL this week. Sure, the Packers have Parsons, but Detroit went 15-2 last year, sweeping Green Bay in the process. How can you not bet them as underdogs!?

The Lions have a massive Week 1 preparation disadvantage. They obviously don’t have a new head coach-new quarterback dynamic to overcome, but they have two new coordinators who will need to construct a game plan against Matt LaFleur, one of the best coaches in the NFL. The last time we saw a team with two new coordinators in Week 1, the Eagles nearly lost to the horrendous 2023 Patriots. The Packers are a far tougher opponent than that New England team.

In addition to the two new coordinators, the Lions will also have to overcome a reshuffled interior offensive line. The reason why I was so high on the Lions several years ago to begin with was because they had an elite offensive line. That’s not the case anymore. Their tackles are still exceptional, but their guards and center are huge question marks.

I like the Packers to cover this spread and win by a field goal or more. I have Green Bay rated above Detroit in my NFL Power Rankings, so I would have made this line Green Bay -3.5. Getting the three is key.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance that Micah Parsons may not play. If he’s out, I assume the line will drop to -1.5 or maybe even -1. However, it sounds like Parsons will give it a go after receiving an injection, but you never know with these things.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been asked if I considered being less bearish on the Lions because they’re getting all of their defensive players back from injury, but that’s not true. They’re still missing a star in Alim McNeill and two key players in Levi Onwuzurike and Malcolm Rodriguez. The Packers also have their injury issues with Micah Parsons, Jayden Reed, and Nate Hobbs all questionable with limitedx3 or DNP-limitedx2 practice setups this week. The inactives list will dictate how many units I’ll have on the Packers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on three key injuries for the Packers, so we’ll finalize the unit count around 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Of the three injury question marks, only one is out. That would be Nate Hobbs, as both Micah Parsons and Jayden Reed will play. There’s more public action on the Lions than any team this week, but the sharps haven’t weighed in on either side. The best line is -1.5 +105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Packers -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Tons of money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 89% (145,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Lions have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Packers are 9-6 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: We know Matthew Stafford will play in this game, but at what capacity? Stafford dealt with some serious-sounding back issues throughout August. These things can be overblown, but there were reports suggesting that Stafford had problems doing routine things like even walking around. He could be limited in his natural ability, but he could also perform well after being injected.

Another concern for the Rams’ offense is the left tackle situation. Alaric Jackson was expected to miss some time with blood clots in his lungs, but he’s already practicing. Perhaps he’ll return sooner than expected, but I’d still be surprised if he were to play in this game. This isn’t good news for the Rams, who will have to deal with Houston’s electric edge rushers.

The Rams may have to lean heavily on Kyren Williams. There might be an opportunity for the Rams to get something on the ground with Williams, given that the Texans were just slightly above average at stopping the run last year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the Rams have a concern with their offensive line, it’s centered around one position and one player. The Texans have much greater problems in this regard. They lost Laremy Tunsil and have holes everywhere.

This is going to be a huge problem for C.J. Stroud because the Rams also roster several incredibly talented pass rushers. Jared Verse, in particular, caught fire at the end of his rookie year, so he should be able to make a big leap in production in his second season. If so, he’ll start the 2025 campaign off with a bang.

Another issue for the Texans is their lack of a rushing attack. Joe Mixon will be sidelined for at least four weeks, so Houston will have to lean on Nick Chubb, who lacks any sort of explosion after tearing his knee nearly two years ago.

RECAP: If you were to tell me that Stafford is completely healthy, I’d be all over the Rams in this game. They’re a much better team than the Texans, who have some severe issues. Their offensive line was ranked 32nd in the league by Pro Football Focus, and with Mixon sidelined, there’s no rushing attack. A strong defensive team like the Rams can devour one-dimensional offenses, especially when you consider the strength of the Rams’ defense, which is their pass rush. Verse and company will create havoc for Stroud.

Furthermore, the Rams have a big coaching edge. Sean McVay is one of the best head coaches in the NFL and has a great track record in Week 1 as a result. DeMeco Ryans hasn’t been around nearly as long, and his team nearly lost to the Colts to open last year.

The problem with backing the Rams is that Stafford may not be 100 percent. I hate backing injured quarterbacks. It can sometimes work out, but it’s frustrating to side with such an important player limited by injury.

Let’s wait and see what the injury report says, and whether or not we get any concise reporting. Unfortunately, there aren’t any good reporters covering the Rams, and that includes Jourdan Rodrigue, who is a complete disaster as a reporter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but we don’t have anything on Matthew Stafford yet. I have my doubts that we’ll get something, given how shoddy the reporting is around the Rams. If Jourdan Rodrigue did her job rather than whine about being oppressed all the time, then maybe we’d have some info on Stafford.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Athletic’s Rams reporter, Jourdan Rodrigue, spent all day Friday tweeting about other teams with the exception of one post saying that Sean McVay said everyone would be ready to go. Of course, we couldn’t get anything concrete on Matthew Stafford, so we’ll have to wait and see how he plays.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public is pounding the Texans, so if you want to blindly fade casual bettors, Rams -3 is the way to go. Unfortunately, we have no news on Matthew Stafford.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s nothing from the sharps in this game, and there’s nothing from me either. We just don’t know how Matthew Stafford will perform with his ailing back injury. The best line for the Rams is -3 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Rams -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The public is pounding the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 76% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sean McVay is 6-2 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens destroyed the Bills in the first meeting between these teams last year. A big part of that was Matt Milano’s absence. The talented linebacker was missing, and Buffalo, as a consequence, couldn’t stop Derrick Henry. Milano was on the field during the playoff rematch, and the Bills obviously had a better result.

Then again, Mark Andrews blew it with three mistakes in the worst game of his career. Had Andrews not fumbled twice, or if he hadn’t dropped the two-point conversion at the end, Baltimore may have prevailed. The Ravens were still able to move the ball effectively, even with Milano on the field. They obviously weren’t nearly as dominant as they were in the first matchup, but Lamar Jackson is way too good to contain. He’ll have all of his weapons back, and that includes Andrews, who will be looking to redeem himself in this game.

One nice addition the Bills made to their defense is Joey Bosa. While Bosa isn’t the same dominant force he once was, he can still play at a high level, and he’ll be able to put some pressure on Jackson. However, the Ravens have kept their offensive line intact, which is obviously a good thing. Not only is continuity key, but the Ravens have a strong blocking unit that will be able to keep Jackson mostly secure.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills were able to run on the Ravens in the playoff battle. James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson combined for nearly 130 rushing yards. Baltimore was stout versus the run in the first part of the season, so how did this happen? The issue for the Ravens was that they moved star defender Kyle Hamilton from linebacker to safety because of how poor the team was against the pass.

It’s unclear how the Ravens will utilize Hamilton this year, but they added three talented defensive backs this offseason in Jaire Alexander, Chidobe Awuzie, and Malaki Starks. These players will allow Hamilton to play closer to the line of scrimmage, so I don’t expect Buffalo to have the same rushing output in this game.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s secondary will have a gift, which is Khalil Shakir’s health. Shakir has a high-ankle sprain and is unlikely to play in this game. Shakir isn’t a traditional No. 1 wide receiver, but he happens to be Buffalo’s top receiving threat. Without him on the field, the Bills’ passing attack will be much easier to defend.

RECAP: The Ravens nearly swept the Bills last year. They clobbered them in the initial matchup and then self-destructed in the playoff battle. Had Andrews not fumbled a single time or dropped the two-point conversion, Baltimore may have prevailed.

I think it’s important to note how the two games went last year because the Ravens made big improvements to their roster this offseason. The Bills added some pieces as well, but it doesn’t look like they’re going to have Shakir for this game. That’s a huge loss against a secondary that was greatly upgraded during the spring.

Given the divergence between the teams, as well as Baltimore’s strong desire for revenge, I’m going to side with the visitor in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens are now favored! It appears as though sharp money is moving this line, perhaps because of some pessimism regarding Khalil Shakir’s ability to play this game because of his high-ankle sprain.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s interesting that the Ravens are now favorites after opening as 1.5-point underdogs. This has been the work of the sharps, who have been backing Baltimore.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: How can you not bet Mark Andrews anytime touchdown? He completely botched Baltimore’s chances of beating Buffalo in the playoffs. We’re also going over on Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen rushing yards because mobile quarterbacks tend to run often in big games. Here are the best numbers for each:

Mark Andrews anytime touchdown +190 at BetMGM

Lamar Jackson 60+ rushing yards +182 at FanDuel

Josh Allen over 40+ rushing yards +158 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay will include these three elements, as well as Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns, which obviously correlates with the Andrews prop. We can bet Mark Andrews anytime touchdown, Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns, Lamar Jackson over 48.5 rushing yards, and Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards +1650 at DraftKings with a 50-percent profit boost up to $30. This pays $495. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think I’m going to raise my units to two or three. I’ll have an update around 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: First of all, we have a bonus prop bet on DraftKings. They’re offering +150 on Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen to both rush for 25+ yards. Second, we have more sharp money coming in on the Ravens. I still like them, though I’m confused about why Keaton Mitchell is a healthy scratch. The best line is a natural -1.5 -110 at FanDuel or ESPNBet. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Ravens.

Playoff revenge for the Ravens.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Ravens -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 51% (187,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 12-5 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, where the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago Bulls. Guys, I have to be frank with you. I don’t really care about this game. I tried to get Roger Goodell to make my Philadelphia Eagles play on Monday so I could broadcast the game, but Roger Goodell is a looser who hates my Philadelphia Eagles. That’s why I hired that guy to come after him in the NFL headquarters, but that idiot went to the wrong floor. I used up all my allowance money, so now I can’t stop Goodell.

Emmitt: Thanks, Frank. I thoughted your name was Kevin Reilly, but you says that your name Frank, so it like the old saying go, you learn somethin new every year.

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s not what I meant at all. It’s just an expression. My name isn’t actually Frank.

Tollefson: Reilly, you know, I think that Emmitt Johnson guy might be on to something. I think you need a name makeover. “Kevin Reilly” has the stench of a man who lives with his mother all over him. Now, if you can become Frank, wow, wow, WOW, talk about a hunk! This guy can smoothly come up to any lady in the bar and take her home with him. After using a roofie or chloroform, of course.

Reilly: Tolly, don’t be a fool. There’s no way Mother will let me bring a woman home with me. I also don’t have enough allowance money remaining to buy chloroform either. But now it’s time to go down to the sidelines with our sideline reporter, Clarissa Thomas.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Frank. I’m the first to report that Walter Payton will be coming out of retirement to play in this game against the Minnesota Twins. Back to you, Frank.

Reilly: This is stupid. First of all, my name is not Frank! And second, I’ve never heard of this Walter Patron guy, so who cares if he plays? I want to discuss my Philadelphia Eagles! To do that, we’ve brought in two new analysts this year. The first is Lindsey OK. I would ask her a question, but I need a translator because Mother told me that I can’t talk to girls.

Lindsey OK: It’s OK, Frank, I heard your question, so I can answer it, but first, let me say how much of an honor it is to be on this broadcast because I’ve been reading- I mean watching it for so long. It’s just another step in my journey as a football analyst, as I try my hardest to overcome all the stereotypes directed at me. Do you know how many people have told me that I’ll never make it in the industry because I’m a woman? It says a lot about me that I’ve been able to overcome all of these hurdles to reach the pinnacle of my career to date, which is to join this broadcast on a full-time basis. So, to answer your question, let me first talk more about how hard it has been to overcome the hurdles of being a woman in this industry.

Reilly: Well, she didn’t answer the question, so let’s go with our second analyst, Mina Kleins. I also need a translator here because I am not allowed to speak to women.

Mina Kimes: It’s OK, Frank, I heard your question, so I can answer it, but first, let me say how much of an honor it is to be on this broadcast because I’ve been reading- I mean watching it for so long. It’s just another step in my journey as a football analyst, as I try my hardest to overcome all the stereotypes directed at me. Do you know how many people have told me that I’ll never make it in the industry because I’m both a woman and an Asian? It says a lot about me that I’ve been able to overcome all of these hurdles to reach the pinnacle of my career to date, which is to join this broadcast on a full-time basis. So, to answer your question, let me first talk more about how hard it has been to overcome the hurdles of being a woman and being an Asian in this industry.

Reilly: What is an Asian?

Tollefson: Are you kidding me, Reilly? Asians are people on the continent of Asia. It’s a magical place where women are submissive, and you don’t even need roofies or chloroform to turn women into sex slaves.

Reilly: Sounds icky, but I don’t believe you. Mother said in my home school class the other day that there is only one continent: America. New Daddy, you were in class that day. Tell ’em, New Daddy!

Jay Cutler: I dunno, Frank.

Reilly: MY NAME IS NOT FRANK! STOP CALLING ME FRANK! I SAID TO BE FRANK! I DIDN’T SAY MY NAME IS FRANK!

Charles Davis: Frank, let’s talk about famous Franks, Frank. There’s Frank Thomas, Frank. What do you think about Frank Sinatra, Frank? Don’t forget about Frank Langella, Frank. We can talk about Frank Abagnale, Frank. State your opinion on Frank Capra, Frank. Have you considered Frank Ocean, Frank? How about Frank Lloyd Wright, Frank? We’ll now transition to Frank Zappa, Frank. Let’s not dismiss Anne Frank, Frank. And not included in this is Frank “Kevin” Reilly, Frank, not because his name isn’t Frank, but because he’s not cool enough to be famous, Frank.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! OR SHOULD I SAY FRANK DAVIS!? HOW DOES IT FEEL FRANK DAVIS!? HA, GUESS I HAD THE LAST LAUGH, FRANK DAVIS! We’ll be back after this!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears were supposed to have an electric offense last year. That’s what we were told when Caleb Williams was drafted. Williams had the best supporting cast ever for a No. 1 overall pick, they said. Well, while Williams had some great games as a rookie, he had far more poor performances, particularly at the ends of the Detroit and Seattle games when he froze as time was ticking off the clock. Williams also had some major problems holding on to the ball for too long, resulting in a high number of sacks.

Enter, Ben Johnson. The former Lions coordinator was considered the crown jewel of the coaching circuit, and he should be able to help Williams improve. Williams will need a Johnson boost in this game because he’ll be going up against a defensive mastermind in Brian Flores, who was able to confuse Williams in two matchups last year. The thing is, it’s unclear if Johnson will help Williams that much right away. Something like this may take time, even with the improvements the Bears made to their offensive line.

If, however, Johnson enhances Williams immediately, the Bears will have an opportunity to score some points. Williams will have plenty of talented weapons at his disposal, including Rome Odunze, whom I believe will make a big leap in 2025. I’m not completely sold on the Vikings’ secondary, so there should be an opportunity for the Bears to score some points.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Bears aren’t the only team that made big upgrades to the offensive line this offseason. The Vikings signed Ryan Kelly and Will Fries away from the Colts and then used a first-round pick on Donovan Jackson. They’ll be able to push the Bears around in the trenches, given that Chicago’s defensive line is mostly lackluster.

The Bears also have an issue in the secondary, with top cornerback Jaylon Johnson nursing an injury. Johnson may play in this game, but he might not be 100 percent. If he’s operating at less than full strength, that’ll be a huge issue because Johnson will be tasked to cover Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison is suspended, but the Vikings have T.J. Hockenson at full strength, as well as Adam Thielen to provide a boost in the slot.

The question everyone’s wondering is if J.J. McCarthy will be able to get the ball to Jefferson and the others. Well, we had similar questions at this time last year with Sam Darnold. Kevin O’Connell is a brilliant offensive coach, and he’s been able to get the most out of any quarterback he’s coached, whether it’s Darnold, or Nick Mullens, or Joshua Dobbs. Even Kirk Cousins had his best year under O’Connell. I’m quite comfortable in backing McCarthy, who was the 10th-overall pick in a loaded draft class.

RECAP: The Vikings are one of three playoff teams from a year ago to turn a weakness into a strength. Minnesota had poor interior blocking, which was the reason why it couldn’t generate any offense in the playoff loss to the Rams. The front office took note of this and signed two talented free agent linemen and used a first-round pick on a guard. When his team drafted this guard, O’Connell called him and asked, “How would you like to join the best offensive line in the NFL?”

The Bears also made big improvements to their offensive line, but blocking wasn’t an issue at times last year. Caleb Williams took a massive number of sacks because he held on to the ball too long in the pocket. I’d be worried about this heading into 2025 if the Bears didn’t hire Ben Johnson. It remains to be seen if Johnson was able to repair Williams, but something like that may take some time.

Johnson could become a great coach, but we already know that O’Connell is one. O’Connell has a strong track record in Week 1 as an NFL head coach, while Johnson will be coaching in his first game, so I like the Vikings in this Monday night affair. The Vikings also happen to be the better team, and yet we have to lay only 1.5 with them, which seems like a bargain.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Vikings, but Andy Iskoe made a compelling case for the Bears on our Tuesday show:

WEEKLY PROP: I’m betting any quarterback to throw for 450-plus yards in a single game at +1600 on FanDuel. This occurred three times last year, and one hitting effectively pays for the whole year. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some concern when Christian Darrisaw missed Thursday’s practice, but he was full on Friday, so he should be fine. The most prominent player who will miss this game, outside of Jordan Addison, could be Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards, who hasn’t practiced yet because of a hamstring.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Christian Darrisaw is listed as questionable, but was full in practice on Friday and Saturday.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Bears were 22nd versus the run last year and did nothing to improve that. Aaron Jones rushed for 106 and 86 yards in the two meetings last year. Jordan Mason was added, but Jones should still be the primary ball-carrier to start the season. The best number is over 49.5 rushing yards -111 at DraftKings.

We’re going to stay on DraftKings for our same-game parlay because we’re getting a 30-percent boost. We’re going to parlay the Jones rushing yards with Olamide Zaccheaus over 24.5 receiving yards, and Vikings moneyline. This $30 parlay pays $213.90. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PROMOS: DraftKings is offering a no-sweat bet up to $25. We’re going to use 0.25 of our two units on Vikings -1.5 -108 at DraftKings. FanDuel, meanwhile, has a 50-percent profit boost up to $25, so we’re going to take the Vikings -1.5 up to +137. FanDuel also has a no-sweat bet up to $10. We’re going to use 0.1 of our remaining 1.5 units on Vikings -1.5 -110.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are some major injuries for both teams. The Vikings will be missing Christian Darrisaw and Harrison Smith, while Chicago will be down two cornerbacks – Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon – as well as T.J. Edwards. I think this favors Minnesota because the Bears have cluster injuries. The sharps disagree because they’re on the Bears. In fact, Chicago is now a favorite in most sportsbooks, though DraftKings still has them listed at +1.5. The best line for the Vikings is +1 -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 52% (310,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Opening Line: Vikings -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 65 degrees. Light wind.