NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
2025 NFL Picks: 18-9-1 (+$165)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 14, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray’s sudden Sunday illness really pissed me off. I loved Arizona, but dropped them from four to two units because I didn’t know what to expect from Murray’s illness. I had a suspicion that Murray was faking it like a kid who didn’t want to go to school just so he could play video games all day. “But coooachhh, I don’t wannnaa play foootball!” Poor Kyler has to wait several years to become a full-time streamer.

Murray should be healthy for this game, and if so, he’ll have an easy time torching Carolina’s beleaguered secondary. The Panthers can’t stop a nose bleed, so Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride figure to have big performances, as Murray has all day to throw.

Meanwhile, James Conner and Trey Benson figure to dominate on the ground. The Panthers just allowed Travis Etienne to look like the second coming of Barry Sanders, so Conner and Benson will pick up chunks of yardage with ease.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young is very fortunate that the officials overturned a pick-six of his last week with a ticky-tack penalty; otherwise, his 26-10 loss would have been 33-3, and there would once again be discussions about benching him.

Young will survive another week, but it’s tough to like his chances. He still can’t see over the line of scrimmage, and his Adam Thielen/Jalen Coker safety blankets are not available. There’s Tetaoiroa McMillan, but he was an overrated prospect coming out of college who only went in the top 10 because owner Axe Tepper wanted to make his Young blunder look better.

The Panthers won’t get shut out, at least. Chuba Hubbard could have a decent game, given that Arizona’s defensive line has some issues. Alvin Kamara had a nice showing last week, so Hubbard could be in for something similar.

RECAP: We bet the Cardinals last week, and they covered despite Murray being sick prior to the game. They were an obvious play because the Saints are one of the worst teams in the NFL, while Arizona has a habit of demolishing such opponents. As pointed out last week, the Cardinals were 7-1 versus bad opponents last year.

The Cardinals were given a gift from the NFL scheduling gods because they get to battle another terrible team. The Panthers, as discussed last week, were being completely overrated because they kept three games close last year against teams that didn’t try hard at all against them. People somehow forgot that Carolina was blown out many times when it opponents had a great game plan prepared for them.

Given that Arizona got tripped up at Carolina last year, I assume that it’ll be more prepared for this game. Unless they’re a no-show for some reason, the Cardinals shouldn’t have any issues demolishing the Panthers, who are easily one of the worst teams in the NFL.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken the Cardinals up to -6.5, but haven’t touched them at that number – at least not yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no major injuries on either side. Something I’ll add is that Carolina’s pass rush was absolutely pathetic last week despite battling a mediocre Jaguars offensive line. The Cardinals figure to block better than the Jaguars, so Arizona’s offense should be very productive.

ODDS BOOST: BetMGM has a 20-percent odds boost, up to $25. We’re taking Cardinals -6.5 -115 to +104.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Most of the -6.5s are gone with sharp money coming in on Arizona. You can still get -6.5 -118 at BetMGM at the moment. I think we can wait until kickoff to maybe get a better price.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Cardinals. All of the -6.5 lines are gone, except for the -6.5 -120 available at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -4.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

The public loves the Panthers for some reason.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 68% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cardinals -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

DENVER OFFENSE: Many fantasy players and bettors were very bullish on Bo Nix heading into the season, but he was a big disappointment in the opener. He was responsible for three turnovers, though one of his two interceptions was the result of a miscommunication. Still, this was troubling, given that the Tennessee defense isn’t very good.

I didn’t think the Colts defense would be very good either, but they were superb in Week 1. Miami didn’t score a single point until garbage time. Then again, it was just Miami, and the Broncos have the firepower to score more points. Their offensive line is far better than Miami’s, so Nix will have far more protection than Tua Tagovailoa did last week.

Running could be problematic. The Colts didn’t allow anything on the ground last week, and that could once again be the case this Sunday. The two defensive tackles should be able to swallow up R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts couldn’t be stopped last week. Literally. They scored on every single possession. However, something tells me that the magic will come to an end this Sunday.

I don’t need to tell you that Denver’s defense is far better than what Miami has. Instead of Storm Duck, the Broncos have Patrick Surtain II, so they’ll be able to limit Michael Pittman Jr. The Broncos can also bring lots of pressure, so Jones may feel some heat in the pocket, unlike last week. One area where Jones could have success is targeting Tyler Warren, given that Denver isn’t great versus tight ends.

Jones will have to do most of the work himself because he won’t be able to lean on Jonathan Taylor. Though Taylor will be looking to redeem himself after dropping the ball shy of the goal line versus this team last year, it’s unlikely that he’ll find any running room because the Broncos were fourth versus the rush last year.

RECAP: The Colts might be the toughest team to evaluate right now. They had a record-breaking performance in which they scored on all seven positions and shut out their opponent until garbage time. They’re ranked No. 1 in overall EPA after one week. They beat the pathetic Dolphins, however, so it’s difficult to take this seriously.

Still, there’s a chance that the Colts could be decent. If they’re an average Group C team, then we’re getting great line value with them because the spread should be pick ’em or Denver -1. However, if the Colts are the Group D I pegged them to be to start the season, then this spread is correct.

I’m going to be on the Colts for two reasons. First, as I said, this spread is either correct or tilted in favor of Denver, so the Colts seem like the right side from that perspective. Second, Sean Payton is a notoriously slow starter. I discussed this at length last week, but Payton is now 3-19-1 against the spread in Weeks 1-2 since he returned from his Bountygate suspension. I don’t know why he sucks in Weeks 1 and 2, but he just nearly lost to the Titans at home. If his team could nearly fall to the Titans, then they can certainly lose to the Colts in the infamous Battle of the Horses.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Colts, which is the side I believe Tom likes in the infamous Battle of the Horses. I still don’t have a strong opinion, though I do want to print Battle of the Horses t-shirts.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts could be shorthanded in the Battle of the Horses. Charvarius Ward, who was excellent last week, has been ruled out, while stud edge player Laiatu Latu missed practice Thursday and Friday. The Colts are the superior team in this heated rivalry, but I can’t go with the Broncos because of how poorly Sean Payton’s teams struggle to start the year.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No new betting info here, but I’d like to say that there will be Battle of the Horses shirts and hats available in the WalterFootball.com merch store soon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money was on the Colts earlier in the week to bring the line down from +3.5 to +1.5, but some other pro money came in on the Broncos at -1.5. The best number is +2.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 54% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Sean Payton is 3-19 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I can’t tell you how frustrating it was to see Xavier Worthy get knocked out of the game before the opening drive in Brazil even concluded. We just lost two units on Jalen Carter getting ejected prior to kickoff, and then we saw four units go down the drain because Worthy’s absence ruined Kansas City’s entire game plan. The Chiefs eventually got their act together in the second half, but they couldn’t climb out of their hole.

Worthy probably won’t play in this game, but Andy Reid will be able to formulate a game plan to exploit Philadelphia’s big hole at No. 2 cornerback. The Eagles had issues stopping the Cowboys last week – albeit without Warren – so Reid certainly took notice. It’s also hard to imagine Reid not game planning for this battle since the schedule was released back in May.

The Eagles could completely foil Reid’s plans, however. They rattled Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl with their relentless pass rush, and they could do the same thing in the rematch. Josh Simmons is better than Joe Thuney at left tackle, but there’s no Thuney-type presence at left guard. With Carter back on the field, the Eagles could easily dominate the trenches.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I found it hilarious that people blamed Saquon Barkley’s underwhelming performance in the Super Bowl on fatigue. I seriously heard that many times this past spring and summer. I imagine those same people were critical of Omarion Hampton in his debut.

These people should probably consider looking at run defense rankings because they’d find that the Chiefs are near the top. They’ll be able to limit Barkley again, unlike the Cowboys in the opener. Thus, Jalen Hurts will have to do more.

Hurts is an incredible scrambler, but ripping the ball downfield is not his specialty. He was great in the Super Bowl, but outside of one long pass to Jahan Dotson, his ability to launch the ball downfield versus Dallas wasn’t very great. Just ask A.J. Brown what he thinks with his one target. The Chiefs are very weak to the pass, as we saw when Justin Herbert torched them in Brazil, but the Eagles may not be able to take advantage of that liability this time.

RECAP: It’s a shame that the Eagles and Chiefs are playing against each other this week because they’d both be fine bounce-back overreaction candidates. The Eagles struggled to beat the crappy Cowboys, while the Chiefs lost outright. Both teams, however, lost key players before the conclusion of the first drive, and this greatly impacted their game plans.

I’m going to side with the Chiefs in this game. Reid has been preparing for this game for five months after Philadelphia demolished his team in the Super Bowl. I also like the idea of backing Mahomes off a loss. Any elite quarterback will have a positive track record following a defeat, and Mahomes obviously qualifies as such.

Also, it seems as though the Chiefs are a better overreaction candidate than the Eagles. I say this because Kansas City opened -1.5 and is now +1. I know this isn’t a huge line move, but it’s an indication that the Chiefs are a bit undervalued.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This was Andy’s strongest pick of the week on our Wednesday picks show. He loves the Chiefs. I’m also on the Kansas City side, but with far less conviction.

PLAYER PROPS: I love A.J. Brown for the squeaky wheel narrative. This matchup is great, too, because Brown eats up man defenses, and the Chiefs play a ton of man. The best number is over 66.5 receiving yards -111 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Dallas Goedert is out, but that doesn’t really move the needle for me, especially considering Kansas City’s injuries at receiver. I’m still torn on this game. What’s amusing to me is that my two picks show guests – please subscribe here – both love opposite sides. Andy Iskoe said the Chiefs were his to play of the week, while Evan Daniel loves the Eagles enough to put them on contest cards. It’s pretty crazy how two sharp bettors can completely be on opposite ends of the spectrum.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: FanDuel is offering a 30-percent boost on the Chiefs-Eagles game. I like A.J. Brown over 73.5 receiving yards, JuJu Smith-Schuster over 34.5 receiving yards, Patrick Mahomes over 23.5 rushing yards, and Saquon Barkley under 87.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $260.25. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no interest in either side. The matchups favor the Eagles, while the spot favors the Chiefs. This is a true coin flip for me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Eagles, while the public is pounding the Chiefs. I don’t often side with the public in this sort of split, but I am in this instance. The best line is Chiefs +1.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

Super Bowl revenge for the Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Public on the Chiefs, sharps on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 64% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 13-31 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Patrick Mahomes is 100-26 SU, 66-58 ATS (52-45 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 13-9 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 93 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Return of Q. I ran into a very weird person for the second time.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: J.J. McCarthy looked terrible through three quarters on Monday night. He constantly had passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, and he had some horrible misfires. The issues with the audio and the poor pass protection at left tackle didn’t help matters. However, the switch flipped on for McCarthy in the fourth quarter, and he was suddenly unstoppable.

It’ll help McCarthy if Christian Darrisaw is available for this game. The Falcons improved their pass rush in the offseason, so they’ll be able to generate heat on McCarthy if Darrisaw is unavailable. This will obviously make things extremely difficult, especially given that Justin Jefferson will have to deal with a No. 1 cornerback this week after getting a reprieve Monday night with Jaylon Johnson sidelined.

The Vikings will need to establish Jordan Mason to give McCarthy more of a chance if Darrisaw isn’t around once again. This will be difficult, given that the Falcons are better against the run than Chicago is.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Vikings won’t have as much success running the ball this week, the Falcons will do much better in that regard. Bijan Robinson scored a long receiving touchdown last week, but didn’t do much on the ground. This was expected because the Vita Vea-led Buccaneers were second versus the run last year, while Minnesota was just in the middle of the pack.

With Robinson doing more on the ground, Michael Penix Jr. will have an easier time operating in short-yardage situations. I don’t really trust the Minnesota cornerbacks, so Drake London could have a big game.

The Vikings will have to disrupt this with their pass rush. They might be able to do this, as their talented defensive line projects well against the Falcons and their third-string right tackle.

RECAP: Maybe I’m overreacting, but I moved the Vikings down from Group A to Group B. McCarthy was awful for three quarters. I know he was great in the final frame, but the Bears’ already-mediocre defense was missing three starters. I expected more of a convincing win by the Vikings.

With that in mind, I made this line Minnesota -3.5, which is a bit shy of the current line of -5. We’re not getting any key numbers, so I don’t see any line value with the Falcons even though I believe they’re the right side in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After some consideration, I’m changing this pick to the Vikings, though I won’t bet them unless Drake London is sidelined. Minnesota is the better team, and I think fading NFC South teams outside of the division is generally a good idea.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Falcons have a big injury edge in this game. Drake London was considered questionable earlier in the week, but he’s not on the injury report. Darnell Mooney will play, too. Conversely, the Vikings will be missing their best offensive lineman – Christian Darrisaw – and their do-it-all front-seven player, Andrew Van Ginkel. I don’t like backing NFC South teams outside of the division, but Atlanta is just much healthier and will have the luxury of an extra day of preparation.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going with Drake London over 73.5 receiving yards, Justin Jefferson under 76.5 receiving yards, Darnell Mooney under 40.5 receiving yards, and Jordan Mason over 56.5 rushing yards. I love London because Michael Penix Jr., as a young quarterback, is locked in on his No. 1 receiver. This is why I dislike Mooney, who may not be healthy. Jefferson isn’t appealing because Christian Darrisaw is out, while Jordan Mason is handling most of the workload. This $30 parlay pays $495 with a 50-percent boost. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY II: FanDuel also has a 50-percent boost, so we’re going with a safer parlay. We’re going with Drake London 50+ receiving yards, Drake London 5+ receptions, Bijan Robinson 50+ rushing yards, and Jordan Mason 30+ rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $55 with the boost. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If the Sunday afternoon games go well, I’ll consider betting the Falcons for a small amount. Check back around 7:45 p.m. for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: In addition to Christian Darrisaw and Andrew Van Ginkel being out, Harrison Smith will be sidelined as well. This could be the reason why the sharps are on the Falcons, while the public is on Atlanta. I’m not going to bet this game because of the tilt from the bulls**t back-door cover in the Arizona game. If you want to bet the Falcons, the best line is +3.5 -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Tons of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Vikings are 49-38 ATS at home since 2014 (18-23 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you didn’t see it on the home page, our Stocks to Buy section is back! We called the GameStop beat today.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The demise of Houston’s offensive line was accurately portrayed. It’s unclear why, but the Texans dealt Laremy Tunsil this offseason and failed to find much-needed upgrades in the interior. They were graded as having the worst offensive line in the NFL, which looked accurate in the opener versus the Rams. C.J. Stroud didn’t have a chance.

Fortunately for Stroud, his offensive line has a much easier matchup in this game. The Buccaneers don’t bring nearly as much heat as the Rams, so Stroud will have more time in the pocket. The Buccaneers have problems covering receivers and tight ends, so Nico Collins also figures to rebound, while Dalton Schultz could have one of his better performances of the year.

One thing the Texans won’t be able to do effectively will be running the ball. The Buccaneers clamp down on the run extremely well. They severely limited Bijan Robinson on the ground, so they shouldn’t have a problem keeping Nick Chubb from gaining much.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While Stroud will have more time in the pocket, the same won’t be said of Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers still won’t have Tristan Wirfs in this game, and it’ll actually be felt against the Texans, who have some serious talent on the defensive line.

Mayfield won’t have much time to throw, but when he does, he might have some luck locating his two talented receivers. The Texans lost Derek Stingley in last week’s loss, so if he can’t return, Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka will have an easier time getting open.

The Buccaneers won’t be able to run very much either. Bucky Irving is very talented, but Houston’s stalwart front should be able to win in the trenches, especially with Wirfs still sidelined.

RECAP: I’m no fan of the Texans this year. They have an atrocious offensive line which was ranked 32nd according to Pro Football Focus. I’d put the Dolphins behind them, but the Texans’ blocking unit is certainly in the bottom five. Stroud stood no chance against the Rams last week.

However, the Buccaneers also have their flaws. Their defense isn’t very good, while their offensive line took a hit with Wirfs sidelined. Also, Tampa Bay’s pass rush doesn’t strike me as a unit that can take advantage of Houston’s poor blocking.

I’m leaning toward the Texans in this game, but that’s all I have. There’s no line value in this game – I made the spread exactly -1.5, which is what the real line is – and there are no other angles I see.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to change this unit count to two. The best unit in this game is the Houston defense, and we get to fade an NFC South team from outside the division.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance the Buccaneers could be without both tackles, given that Luke Goedeke hasn’t practiced yet this week. That could be a nightmare against Houston’s elite pass rush.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Luke Goedeke may play after being limited on Saturday, but I still like Houston.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going with the Nick Chubb under rushing yards. Chubb is a shell of his former self, and Tampa Bay’s run defense is elite because of Vita Vea. The best number is under 53.5 -112 at FanDuel.

Our same-game parlay will include the Chubb under, as well as Nico Collins over 76.5 receiving yards, Dalton Schultz over 37.5 receiving yards, and Texans +7.5. This $25 parlay pays $189.09, boosted 30 percent on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers will have Luke Goedeke tonight, which is a bit disappointing but perfectly fine for our Houston bet. There’s no real lean with either the public or sharps. The best line is Houston -2.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.

Computer Model: Texans -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 55% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 143-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Texans -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, otherwise known as Sin City, for tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oakland Raiders! Guys, I’m joining you by Zoom call because Mother wouldn’t let me go to Sin City because she thought I would be corrupted. It’s probably for the best because I’d probably spent all of my allowance at Circus Circus trying to win Jalen Hurts and Nick Foles bobblehead dolls out of the crane machines. You guys might think I’m a jack of all trades, master of everything, but I can’t win at those darn crane games. I even asked Mother to ask the manager to rig it for me, and I still couldn’t win!

Emmitt: Thanks, Jack. I thoughted your name Frank from last week game, but now you say you Jack. But Jack, I real sorry you can’t not joined us in Sim City. I already betted all of my money on the coin flip for the football game. I bet edge every time and soonder or later, the coin gonna land on edge, and I gonna have the last laughed.

Reilly: Emmitt, let’s not begin with this again. My name is not Frank, or Jack. My name is Kevin Reilly. If you don’t start calling me by my real name, I’m going to tell on you to Mother, and then you won’t get macaroni and cheese when you visit us for dinner.

Tollefson: Reilly, relax, don’t threaten others by taking your mom’s macaroni and cheese away from them. And like I said last week, you should embrace a new name. Kevin Reilly can’t talk to women. Jack Reilly is a smooth and slick individual with lots of slave women in his cellar who cook and clean naked for him. What a stud. I’d be jealous if I didn’t live the life myself!

Reilly: Tolly, it’s not that I can’t talk to women. I totally can. It’s just that Mother won’t let me. But maybe, just maybe, if I can fool Mother into thinking I’m Jack Reilly, I can. Let’s try. Hey Clarissa Thomas baby, I’m Jack Reilly, I’m so smooth, will you give us a groovy sideline report, babe?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Jack, wow, I’m blushing right now. I have the sudden urge to cook and clean naked for you now. I don’t even need to be tied up for chloroformed like that Tolly guy’s ladies. I don’t even know what my report was because I’m so flustered.

Tollefson: What the f**k!? Cooking and cleaning with no cellar torture? You, sir, are a god!

Reilly: I told you, Tolly. Jack Reilly is the man of the ladies. Let’s try this again. Hey, baby lady who taught me what Asians were last week, how about we swing by the soda shop, and I buy you a bowl of macaroni and cheese?

Mina Kimes: See, this is what I was talking about last week. I need to work so hard to overcome stereotypes. I am a great football analyst, and yet all people see is that I am an Asian woman. People need to recognize how great I am at football analysis. For example, I’ll be the only one talking about this game, and I’m excited for it. Here’s a cool little tidbit for you: Not only is Geno Smith a top-10 NFL quarterback, he’s also a top-one NFL quarterback. No one is better at football than Geno Smith. This is just but a taste of my great football knowledge that I can feature on any football telecast, but all people see is short Asian lady, and I’m so much more than that.

Reilly: Who the f**k is Geno Smith? And yes, I can curse because I’m Jack Reilly instead of Kevin Reilly. Take that, Mother! I mean, woman I don’t know who’s probably the mother of some super cool guy with a great Nick Foles bobblehead collection. We have one more lady of the night here on the show, and I say that because it’s night time, and the ladies are here. Who are you babe, and why do you look so good?

Sarah Spain: WHY ARE YOU OPPRESSING MEEEEE REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Reilly: Whoa, I don’t know who will ever want to be involved with that mess. Not even the cool Jack Reilly can get her number. I guess everyone has their limits. Except New Daddy, of course, because he landed Mother!

Jay Cutler: Oh yeah, I’m real winner to get a stepson who is older than me and yet still lives in his mom’s house and pretends to be other people.

Reilly: New Daddy, you should be thankful that I live with you so we can hang out all the time!

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about father-son hangouts, Kevin. How about going to a ball game, Kevin. Then there’s playing catch, Kevin. What do you think about going to ice cream, Kevin? Let’s chat about taking your little boy to the playground, Kevin. Let’s hope Kevin stays away from playgrounds now, Kevin. How about-

Reilly: Charles Davis, first of all, my name is Jack! And second, how can I go to the playground with my dad if you say I shouldn’t be allowed near playgrounds, huh? Didn’t think about that one, did you, idiot!? We’ll be back after this!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers had an impressive victory in Brazil over the Chiefs. They moved the chains with ease for most of the evening, with Justin Herbert shredding an inept Kansas City defense.

Herbert should continue his hot streak in this game. He has more weapons at his disposal this year with Keenan Allen back on the roster and Quentin Johnston perhaps finally coming into his own. The Raiders have a great pass rush, but they also lack talent in their secondary. Herbert should be able to exploit those weaknesses, while Joe Alt and the rest of the offensive line figure to keep him clean. Omarion Hampton, meanwhile, should have a slightly better game than what he showed us in Brazil.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Chargers have a key injury that will not be recognized by the public. That would be to Denzel Perryman. Many casual bettors may have heard of him, but don’t know the impact that Perryman provides. Whenever Perryman has been out of the lineup, his teams have been far worse against the run.

Perryman is week to week with a high-ankle sprain. This will obviously benefit Ashton Jeanty, who didn’t have the best debut. However, Jeanty will have much more running room in this contest, thanks to Perryman’s absence.

Jeanty’s tough running will make things easier for Geno Smith, who performed well in his Raiders debut last week. There’s a slight shot Smith may not have Brock Bowers, who got banged up at the end of the victory over the Patriots, but he’s listed as day to day, so chances are that he’ll be on the field. Smith has plenty of weapons at his disposal, so he should have some success moving the chains.

RECAP: The Chargers really surprised me in their Brazil matchup against the Chiefs. Not only did they win a big game for the first time in four years; they also were very aggressive in doing so, constantly throwing the ball at the end as opposed to going into a conservative, protective shell.

I liked seeing this from the Chargers, and it makes me think that they can really go places this year. They should also be able to expose the weaknesses of the Raiders, all while protecting Herbert well.

I’m not in love with the Chargers this week because they’re in such a weird spot as a road favorite following a big victory as an underdog, but I would take them in an office pool. It should be noted that the line moving from -3 to -3.5, while unappealing because three is such a key number, is a sign of strength for the Chargers because the books aren’t afraid of sharp money coming in on the Raiders +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think I’d have some betting interest in the Chargers at -3 because they could be a special team this year. However, -3.5 is a much tougher ask because three is the primary key number in the NFL.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brock Bowers hasn’t practiced yet this week. If Bowers is out, and we get a -3, I’d consider a wager on the Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Brock Bowers reportedly has a good chance to play, but we’ll see. I’ll have an update on Monday, of course.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I like Dont’e Thornton’s over receiving yards. The line is just 25.5, which Thornton could clear with one catch. He’ll catch more than one ball, giving us plenty of outs. The best line is over 25.5 -118 at BetMGM.

DraftKings has a 50-percent profit boost for one game. I’m going with Dont’e Thornton over 26.5 receiving yards, Ladd McConkey over 5.5 receptions, and Ashton Jeanty under 66.5 rushing yards. This $30 parlay pays $225. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brock Bowers will play. I was leaning toward a unit on the Chargers, but now that won’t be the case. The sharps haven’t weighed in on this game either. If you want to bet the Chargers, make sure you get a -3, but don’t pay above -3.5. The best line is -3 -124 on Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Slight lean on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on Las Angeles: 62% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Raiders are 38-57 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.