2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Broncos at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

DENVER OFFENSE: I have to imagine that the Raider defense was excited about the possibility of battling a rookie quarterback twice per year after dealing with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert so often. Of course, things have regressed for the Raiders, who had the No. 7 EPA defense last year. Thanks to countless injuries, the Raiders are dead last in defense.

The Raiders already tried to battle Bo Nix once, and it didn’t end well. In that game, Nix was a solid 19-of-27 for 206 yards and three total touchdowns. Nix didn’t have much experience at the time because that was just his fifth start. He’ll be even better in this contest, given that he’s coming off such a brilliant performance against Atlanta. Granted, the Falcons had a secondary missing three of its top four cornerbacks, but it’s not like the Raiders cover well. They’ve been awful to No. 1 receivers, and their pass rush won’t be able to do much to disrupt Nix, given that he’s protected so well.

One other thing the Raiders can’t defend at all is receiving backs. Javonte Williams appeared to lose his job to Audric Estime in Week 10, but was somehow able to reclaim it versus the Falcons. Williams can catch passes well out of the backfield, so he should have his way against the Raiders.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While Nix is protected very well, the same can’t be said of Gardner Minshew. The Raiders have a horrible offensive line that doesn’t stand a chance in this matchup. The Broncos are fifth in pressure rate, so they’ll hound Minshew all afternoon.

I don’t need to tell you that this is troubling for Minshew. While all quarterbacks play poorly while under pressure, Minshew has one of the greatest dichotomies between being kept clean and being under duress. When pressured, Minshew’s completion percentage drops a whopping 33.5 percent, and his YPA plummets 2.4 yards. It’s truly horrendous. Minshew is an interception machine, so he could easily toss some picks in this game.

The one way the Raiders will move the ball is by Minshew constantly completing passes to Brock Bowers. This was a strategy that worked for a bit against the Dolphins. If the Broncos have one defensive weakness, it’s their inability to stop tight ends.

RECAP: The Raiders had owned the Broncos heading into 2024. That changed in the first meeting between these teams. Denver obliterated the Raiders in the first meeting. They won 34-18, and the result wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. The Raiders did all of their damage in garbage time. Denver was up 34-10 before a garbage-time octopus.

I don’t see why anything would change in the rematch. Sure, this game is in Las Vegas, but the Raiders don’t have any sort of a home-field advantage. In fact, I’d expect more Denver fans to be in the stands. The Raiders have a backup quarterback at the helm, and he doesn’t stand much of a chance against one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Broncos have battled four bad quarterbacks this year: Justin Fields, Minshew, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young. The Broncos are 3-1 straight up and against the spread against those quarterbacks, and the lone loss was a 13-point output by the Steelers.

Minshew won’t do anything against the Broncos until garbage time. I’m looking forward to betting many units on Denver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eight Raider players missed Wednesday’s practice, including top cornerback Nate Hobbs and center Andre James. Seeing this, it wasn’t surprising at all to see this line move to -6.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m interested in a Gardner Minshew interceptions prop because of the crazy pressure he’ll see in this game. Minshew has thrown at least one pick in six of his nine games this year. I’m not seeing a viable line at the moment, however, so check back later.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Raiders weren’t in a deep enough hole in this matchup, they may be down their top three cornerbacks in this game. Nate Hobbs and Jakorian Bennett have been ruled out, while Jack Jones barely practiced all week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are also against us here, betting the Raiders down to +5.5 for some reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps are on the Raiders. I still like the Broncos. The best line is -5.5 -110 at many sportsbooks, including FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.

Computer Model: Broncos -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Public and sharp money on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.