2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Vikings at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Not quite the response I was expecting! I guess DeeDubb is not a fan of math.

Here’s one where I didn’t need to issue a response:

Thanks, Cassandra! I thought someone named Tywin would be better with their money, though then again, Tywin did go bankrupt at the end.

I was trying to find an actual e-mail I received, but stumbled upon this old one instead. I’m not sure if I posted it last January:

I think it’s funny that this guy berated my humor, but began the e-mail with “HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA.” Clearly, something I said or did was funny.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Sam Darnold did well to bounce back from his horrendous performance against Jacksonville. There’s no reason the Vikings should have nearly lost to the Jaguars after outgaining them 402-143, but they nearly did because Darnold threw three interceptions, including two into the end zone. Many expected the turnovers to continue last week, but Darnold played a clean game.

The Vikings had to attack the Titans through the air because of how strong Tennessee’s ground defense is, so Darnold’s positive performance was crucial. Minnesota will deploy a different method of moving the ball in this game. Chicago is far weaker to the run than the pass, so Aaron Jones will be Minnesota’s primary threat against Chicago.

It’s difficult to imagine the Bears having much success against Jones, so Darnold will be able to capitalize on play-action and short-yardage opportunities. Having easier down-and-distance situations will be vital with Christian Darrisaw out of commission.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Darnold wasn’t the only quarterback in this matchup to rebound from a ghastly performance. Caleb Williams lost to the Patriots because he took nine sacks and threw horribly inaccurate passes. He bounced back against the Packers, nearly leading his team to its first victory over Green Bay since 2018.

While Williams thrived last week, there’s reason to believe that he’ll regress in this matchup. This is the first time he’ll be seeing Brian Flores, which is not a good thing. Flores’ chaotic blitz schemes can confuse veterans, so Williams will be in for a new experience. It should be noted, however, that Williams has handled the blitz well despite being a rookie. He has thrown four touchdowns and only one interception while being blitzed this year, though Flores’ schemes are a different animal.

Williams, unlike Darnold, will have to do most of the work in this game. The Vikings are stellar at stopping the run, so D’Andre Swift won’t find nearly as much running room as he had versus the Packers last week.

RECAP: Williams played much better last week, but he didn’t exactly have the best matchup. Following a hot start, Green Bay’s defense has regressed.

Minnesota’s defense has not. As detailed in the matchup portion, I expect Flores to confuse Williams and force him into some turnovers. Williams can counter with some great scrambles like we saw last week, however, so I don’t think Chicago is hopeless in this matchup.

I’m going to be on the Vikings, but don’t plan on betting them. I don’t see much of an edge with the -3, especially given that the sharps bet Chicago down from +3.5 to +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looked like the sharps were on the Bears when this was bet from +3.5 to +3, but other pro money came in on Minnesota to move the line back up to +3.5. D’Andre Swift missed Wednesday’s practice, but his absence wouldn’t move the needle for me because Roschon Johnson is a capable backup.

PLAYER PROPS: The Bears have surrendered 65 rushing yards or more to an opposing back in their previous four games. I’ll be surprised if Aaron Jones isn’t the fifth. The best number is over 60.5 rushing yards -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Chicago is getting Teven Jenkins back from injury, which is huge against the Vikings. I considered switching my pick to the Bears as long as the line is +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is my least-favorite game of the week from a betting perspective. The sharps have been on both sides, betting the Vikings at -3 and the Bears at +3.5. The best line is Minnesota -3 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 56% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Bears are 19-13 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.