2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Titans at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Video of the Week: We had a musician on during the summer during one of our fantasy football mock drafts. His name is Schmidty from Philly, and here’s his latest song:

Schmidty from Philly is one of my oldest friends, so please give him a follow, a thumbs up, and everything else!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Though the Texans won 34-10 against the Cowboys, they didn’t exactly have the best performance. C.J. Stroud missed some throws despite the return of Nico Collins. Stroud began the year on fire, but has cooled off considerably recently. It was speculated that the receiver injuries were to blame, but things didn’t really change in the wake of Collins’ return.

Perhaps Stroud and Collins needed a game to get their chemistry right. It’s possible that they could have a much better output in this game, especially when considering how poor Tennessee’s defense has become against the pass. The Titans began the year with two stellar cornerbacks and a solid linebacker, but Chidobe Awuzie and L’Jarius Sneed have both been out a while, while Ernest Jones was traded. Tennessee had no answer for Sam Darnold last week, so stopping Stroud seems like it’ll be an issue.

Stroud will need to be better in this matchup because while the Titans are poor to the pass, they still stop the run effectively. No team runs at a higher clip on early downs than the Texans, thanks to Bobby Slowik’s predictable play-calling. The Texans will need multiple injuries to Tennessee’s front seven for Mixon to reach his full potential this upcoming week.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Poor Will Levis can’t catch a break. He had an impossible matchup against the Chargers two weeks ago that saw him score 10 points until the final minute in garbage time. Last week, he took five sacks and was intercepted once against Minnesota’s blitz-happy defense.

It won’t get any easier for Levis, who has to battle DeMeco Ryans’ top-10 defensive unit. The Texans also blitz at a high clip, which is troubling for Levis because he handles the blitz so poorly. Levis has thrown seven touchdowns and five interceptions when not blitzed this year. When blitzed, he has one touchdown and three picks, and all of his other numbers are considerably worse.

Unlike the past two weeks, however, Levis could lean on his rushing attack. The Chargers and Vikings handle the run well, but the Texans do not. Tony Pollard could break off some long runs, provided that the Titans don’t fall too far behind.

RECAP: We went against Levis last week because of a great schematic matchup against him. Levis is horrendous against the blitz, so he didn’t stand much of a chance against the Vikings, who blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Levis was sacked five times and threw an interception.

This is another tough matchup for Levis. The Texans have a top-10 EPA defense, and they’re also top 10 in blitz rate. We’re going to see more sacks and interceptions from Levis.

I wish we had a better running matchup for the Texans, but I think they’ll be able to win this game rather easily. Levis scored just 16 points at home against Houston last year, so if the result remains the same despite the change in location, all the Texans need is 25 points, which is very feasible for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nine Tennessee players missed Wednesday’s practice, including Calvin Ridley with an illness. If that many players end up being out, I may expand this unit count.

PLAYER PROPS: There aren’t any player props I like in this game, unfortunately. I would like a Will Levis interception, but the best odds available are at -170, which is too expensive.

SATURDAY NOTES: Good news for the Texans: Will Anderson will be back in the lineup. Bad news for the Titans: L’Jarius Sneed is out (placed on IR), while Roger McCreary is questionable after barely practicing all week. Another major injury is to Jack Gibbens, who became Tennessee’s best linebacker in the wake of the Ernest Jones trade. He’s out as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are against us here. They’re on the Titans. The best line is -7.5 -110 at ESPNBet, followed by -7.5 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

TEASER ADDED: I forgot to add a teaser. I’m going with the Texans -2.5 and Chargers +8.5, which I bet on Bookmaker for -120 vig. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -8.

Computer Model: Texans -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Predictable betting action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 75% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Titans have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -9.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.