2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Buccaneers at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: If you missed the news, the Giants have benched Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito. This was a great decision if New York’s goal is to tank the rest of the season because there is no metric by which DeVito is better than Jones. We saw plenty of DeVito last year, and among all qualifiers (125 pass attempts or more), he had the fourth-worst EPA among all quarterbacks. The only quarterbacks worse than him were Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Bailey Zappe.

DeVito appears to have a solid matchup in this game based on Tampa Bay’s overall defensive ranking, but that would require him to perform well against Todd Bowles. I’m no fan of Bowles as a head coach, but he’s a defensive mastermind who confuses young quarterbacks. Bowles blitzes at a high clip, which spells trouble for DeVito because he did not handle the blitz well as a rookie.

It would be great for DeVito if he could lean on his rushing attack in his first start, but he won’t be able to do that. The Buccaneers are stellar against the run, so they’ll be able to limit Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jones’ benching isn’t the only offensive change we’ll see in this game. Mike Evans is expected back. He was practicing on Monday, so it would be a surprise if he weren’t active.

Evans’ return is huge for the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield will be thrilled because he won’t have to rely on bum receivers like Rakim Jarrett and Sterling Shepard any longer. Evans provides a great mismatch against a Giants secondary with issues at cornerback.

New York’s worst problems defensively have to do with the running game. The Giants have one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Bucky Irving has a great performance.

RECAP: Something I love to do is fade backup quarterbacks against great defenses. They have a low cover rate for obvious reasons. Prior to the lockout when teams had a chance to practice more, these backups would at least stand a chance, but that’s not the case anymore.

Now, the numbers say that the Buccaneers do not have a great defense. In fact, they’re 31st in adjusted EPA. However, there’s a huge disparity between how Bowles handles veteran quarterbacks and inexperienced/bad signal-callers. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), and Spencer Rattler. In those seven games, they’ve allowed an average of 15.6 points, and they’re 5-2 against the spread.

DeVito certainly belongs in that pantheon. I’ve shared the numbers with you. He’s exciting, and he had a cool win on a Monday night versus the Packers, but he doesn’t deserve to be a starter in the NFL. Bowles will eat him alive.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No surprise to see this line jump to -6. Evan Daniel pointed out on our Tuesday show that several Giants players voiced their displeasure with the Daniel Jones benching, so that’s a great sign that we’re on the right side. Mike Evans, by the way, was limited in Wednesday’s practice.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Buccaneers. Malik Nabers popped up on the injury report today with a groin issue. If he’s ruled out, this line could move to -6.5 or perhaps even -7. The best line right now is -6 -105 at BetMGM.

PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers allow lots of yardage to tight ends. Theo Johnson was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but was full on Thursday, so I don’t think there’s anything we need to worry about. The best number is over 21.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers could be getting almost everyone back from injury. Mike Evans was limited-full-limited in practice this week. Jamel Dean practiced fully every day. Tristan Wirfs was limited all week. There’s also Zyon McCollum, who was full in practice on Friday after being DNP the other two days. Meanwhile, Malik Nabers told the media that he intends to play, but he won’t be the first player to be overconfident with injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Malik Nabers will play, but so will Mike Evans. Tristan Wirfs is out, which is a bummer, but Jamel Dean will be back on the field. I still like the Buccaneers, which we locked in earlier. The sharps bet Tampa below -6. There are some -6.5s out there now, but you can still get -6 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 87% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 139-96 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 53 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 15 mph.