2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Patriots at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: I never want to forget how truly inept Mike McDaniel was without Tua Tagovailoa, but the Dolphins have been much better on this side of the ball ever since their starting quarterback returned to action. Moving the chains against the Raiders was always going to be easy, but Tagovailoa went toe to toe with the Bills two weeks before that.

Tagovailoa would have had such an easy time against the Patriots in the initial matchup between these teams, but New England has gotten better on this side of the ball recently. That stems from a number of injured players returning to action of late. This includes Christian Barmore, who played his first game of the season last week. Barmore didn’t see the usual number of snaps, but he’ll be more active in his second game. This is troubling for the Dolphins, who don’t protect well in the interior.

The Patriots still don’t project all that well against the run, however, so something has to give. The Dolphins haven’t been able to rush the ball all that well this year because of the diminished blocking, but they had some rare success against New England in the first matchup. We’ll see if that continues, given that the Patriots are healthier now than they were in that first meeting.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have also gotten better on this side of the ball since the first matchup between these teams. Of course, that has to do with Drake Maye quarterbacking the team instead of Jacoby Brissett. Maye makes some stupid decisions at times, but he also creates some terrific plays, showcasing his immense upside.

Maye’s ability to scramble will be useful against a Miami defense that has done a better job of pressuring quarterbacks lately. The Dolphins have also improved against the run, so Rhamondre Stevenson won’t have as solid of a performance as he enjoyed in the first meeting.

The Dolphins have some weaknesses on this side of the ball, however. They’re incredibly poor against tight ends, as we saw last week when Brock Bowers had a ridiculous game against them. Hunter Henry should thrive. Miami isn’t great versus outside receivers either, though the Patriots don’t exactly have the personnel to take advantage of that liability.

RECAP: The Patriots were once one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’re still not very good, but they’ve gotten better with Maye replacing Brissett and some players returning from injury. As a result, they’ve done well in some recent games. They beat the Jets and Bears, went to overtime on the road at Tennessee, and kept the Rams game to within six. I think they’re worth a shot at +7 against the Dolphins. I wouldn’t have felt this way back in October, but things have changed.

Besides, the Dolphins are in a poor spot. They’re coming off two consecutive victories, and following this game against an opponent they’ve already beaten, they have to take on the Packers on Thanksgiving night. They know that they have issues beating good teams, and Green Bay is a far superior opponent compared to New England. It would be a bit shocking if the Dolphins were fully focused for the Patriots.

Also, we were getting good line value. The advance spread was -6.5, yet the line went to -7.5. I don’t know what made the line go through the No. 2 key number, but the sharps felt the same way because they bet the Patriots down to +7. It’s still nice to get five-and-a-half of the six key numbers with sharp support by fading a distracted opponent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Terron Armstead or Kendall Fuller for the Dolphins in Wednesday’s practice. It’s obviously still early, but I’d love to see them both miss this game.

PLAYER PROPS: Hunter Henry has been a beast in most games, and I suspect that will continue this week. The Dolphins have surrendered lots of big games to tight ends, including Davis Allen two weeks ago, so Henry should be able to clear the over. The best number is over 41.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kendall Fuller is out. Terron Armstead is questionable after being DNP all week. He played under those conditions last week, but Miami may opt to hold him out with another game in four days.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Gonzalez is active, but so is Terron Armstead. The sharps haven’t really weighed in on this game (slight action on New England). The best line is +7.5 -112 at Bookmaker and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

The Dolphins already beat the Patriots, and they have to play against the Packers in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 62% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Dolphins have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Dolphins are 33-47 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.