2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Chiefs at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 27-24 ATS through 10 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chiefs +2.5

Vikings -6

Lions -13

Bengals +1.5

The public split their top plays, so not much to say here. The public is now 29-26.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -7.5

49ers +2

Broncos -5

Texans -8

Steelers -3.5

Nothing surprising here except for the 49ers. I guess the public hasn’t given up on them yet.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Something I missed two weeks ago in the Panthers-Giants London game was that D.J. Wonnum returned from injury to play for Carolina for the first time. Wonnum was one of the many crucial injuries the Panthers suffered early in the season. His presence gave the Panthers a quality pass rusher to bolster their league-worst pressure rate. As a result, Carolina held the Giants offense in check and won the game.

The Chiefs have blocking issues on the edge, so Wonnum’s presence will have an impact in this contest. Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing his best, so Carolina’s upgraded pass rush may not give him the reprieve he needs after a tough battle against the Bills.

Mahomes would love to just feed the ball to his running back. The problem is that Isiah Pacheco may not be quite ready to return to action, so we may see one final week of Kareem Hunt in Kansas City’s backfield. Hunt has done well as a fantasy player, but he is not efficient in the slightest, as he leaves far too much meat on the bone whenever he touches the ball.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers may get another impactful player back from injury this week. That would be Adam Thielen, who got hurt back in Week 3. Obviously, Thielen is not the same dynamic receiver he once was, but he’s still a quality possession target for Bryce Young.

Young going up against Kansas City’s defense isn’t ideal, but he’ll at least have one matchup he’ll be able to exploit. Ja’Tavion Sanders figures to have a big game because the Chiefs have been so porous against tight ends. This dates back to Week 1 against Isaiah Likely. Young should have enough time to deliver the ball to his athletic rookie tight end, given that he has quality blocking in front of him to help repel the talented Kansas City pass rushers.

Unfortunately for Young, he won’t be able to rely on Chuba Hubbard, or Johnathan Brooks, for that matter. The Chiefs happen to possess one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so they’ll be able to keep the Carolina backs in check.

RECAP: The Chiefs almost certainly have to bounce back, right? They were undefeated, but lost their first game of the year. I’m sure most people expect them to rebound.

History doesn’t agree, however. Previously unbeaten teams coming off their first loss do not have a great track record in their next game. Dating back to 1989, which is as far back as my database goes, teams in this situation are 32-43 against the spread in Week 7 onward. In other words, teams that started 6-0 or better and then lost their first game cover at a 42.7-percent clip. Having said that, they are 2-0 against the spread as double-digit road favorites, so there’s that.

I hate trends, and I never want to use one to bet a team. I will, however, use them to avoid wagers, so I won’t be backing the Chiefs, especially given that they have a short week coming up with a game on Friday. Besides, the Chiefs almost never cover these high spreads in the regular season.

The problem is that I don’t want to back Carolina either. The Panthers have gotten a bit better from their October swoon, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’d be a bit more appealing if Andy Dalton were playing, but I don’t want to wager any money on Young unless he’s battling another terrible team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Isiah Pacheco had a limited practice on Wednesday. Reports indicate that he has a good chance of playing, but there’s no telling if he’ll be close to 100 percent in his first game back in action.

PLAYER PROPS: The Chiefs allow a ton of production to tight ends. I’d love to bet Ja’Tavion Sanders’ over receiving yards, but I’m not seeing that prop anywhere right now. I’ll come back to this later. Update: I’m betting the over on the Sanders receiving prop. The best number is over 19.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Isiah Pacheco won’t play after all. The Panthers looked a bit more appealing to me until I remembered that they are the Panthers, and that they could easily lose 40-7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s no surprise that the sharps haven’t bet this game. I would still bet the Panthers if I had to pick a side. The best line is +11 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Chiefs could be deflated off their first loss. They also have to play on Friday.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The public is paying this high number.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 81% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 93-25 SU, 63-53 ATS (49-40 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 13-8 ATS after a loss.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-11 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.