2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Cowboys at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys just lost 34-10 to Houston, but they’re very lucky that game was that close. Dallas scored on a fluky touchdown when KaVonte Turpin ran into the end zone after Jeff Okudah fell down. Cooper Rush then had multiple interceptions that were dropped. The Cowboys easily could have lost 48-6.

Adding injury to insult, Dallas lost three offensive linemen to injury during the game, including their top blocker, Tyler Smith. If the Cowboys are down Smith and some other offensive linemen, they may score absolutely nothing in this contest, given how much pressure the Redskins can generate.

The Redskins have a great pass defense under Dan Quinn, but they’re far weaker to the run. The Cowboys won’t be able to capitalize on this weakness. First of all, they could be way behind, which could take them out of the run. And second, their ground attack is way too pedestrian to be any sort of threat.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins haven’t been as explosive offensively lately. Perhaps Jayden Daniels’ rib injury is to blame. It could also be that the Redskins have battled three tough defenses in their previous four games, as Chicago, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia can make it difficult for any offense to score. The lone exception in that span was the Giants, and Washington generated 27 points and 358 net yards of offense in that contest.

The Cowboys are on the Giants’ defensive level. They have Micah Parsons, but that’s about it. Their secondary has been ravaged by injury, so Daniels, who has a mini bye week to get healthier, will be able to exploit this weakness with his great deep passes.

The Redskins will have plenty of success running the ball as well. Brian Robinson will also have the luxury of getting healthier during these nine days off, so he’ll be able to pick up where Joe Mixon left off Monday night.

RECAP: I almost wrote up the Redskins -9.5 on Monday, but saw that the vig on FanDuel had moved to -115. This spread was -10 everywhere else, so I thought I’d wait.

I don’t want to wait. I’m going to bet the Redskins now at -10. There’s a very good chance that this line soars once the sportsbooks realize the colossal error they made with this spread. The Cowboys are awful, and their terrible quarterbacks have no chance against a top-10 defense like Washington’s.

I’m locking in Cowboys -10. Most sportsbooks have already gone to -10.5, but you can still get -10 -110 at Caesars and ESPNBet. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We locked this in at -10, and we will be betting alt lines at -13.5, -20.5, and perhaps even -27.5. Tyler Smith and Zack Martin missed Wednesday’s practice.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Joe Mixon against the Cowboys and won. We’re going to fade Dallas’ poor run defense yet again. The best number is over 70.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

I’m also going to bet Robinson to score a touchdown and two touchdowns. The Cowboys have surrendered 18 rushing touchdowns, and they tend to allow multiple scores in many games. I’m going to wait until the Gronk Spike promo appears on FanDuel on Saturday to bet this.

Update: The best lines for Robinson to score at -145 for an anytime touchdown and +450 for two touchdowns at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Marshon Lattimore for the Redskins, but the Cowboys are in far worse shape. They’re getting DaRon Bland back, but they’ll be without Zack Martin and perhaps Tyler Smith, who barely practiced this week. We’re going to have alt. line bets posted later.

ALT LINE BETS: I’m betting the alt lines on the Redskins at -13.5, -19.5, and -27.5. The best numbers are +120, +250, and +680 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game above -10. We already bet the Redskins at -10, which is nice because this line is -10.5 across the board. The best line is -10.5 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -10.

Computer Model: Redskins -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

There should be more money on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 75% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.