2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: 49ers at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 8: Miracle at the Las Vegas Airport.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers already had plenty of injuries, so they didn’t need to see Brock Purdy dealing with a shoulder issue. Purdy reportedly has shoulder soreness and is day to day with the injury. There hasn’t been any indication that Purdy is in danger of missing this game, but he may not be 100 percent.

As far as the other injuries on this side of the ball, George Kittle missed last week’s game, while Trent Williams and Aaron Banks were not completely healthy. Perhaps they’ll be closer to 100 percent after a week, but it’s too early to tell. The offensive linemen will be especially crucial for the 49ers to take advantage of Green Bay’s defensive weakness, which is against the run. If Christian McCaffrey has the blocking, he could have a big day. The 49ers will be hoping that this includes the work done in the red zone because their offense has been woeful deep in enemy territory.

As for Kittle, he’s less vital because Jauan Jennings has emerged as a dynamic threat. With Jennings and Deebo Samuel, Purdy has a couple of terrific weapons to beat Green Bay’s secondary. The only question is if Purdy will be healthy enough to do so.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The 49ers also have injury woes on this side of the ball. Nick Bosa was very questionable heading into last week’s game, as he barely practiced. He played, but wasn’t healthy. He had to leave the contest early, sparking Seattle’s comeback.

Bosa is a huge difference-maker, so if he’s out of commission, Green Bay’s offense will function very efficiently. The Packers need all the breaks they can get, given that they’re going to be matched up with a stop unit that is still ranked in the top 10.

Despite San Francisco’s high defensive ranking, the Packers will be able to exploit some matchups. For instance, the 49ers really struggle against tight ends, so I would expect Tucker Kraft to perform well. San Francisco is great versus the run, but has problems with receiving backs. Josh Jacobs has been getting more pass-catching work lately, so that could make a difference in this game.

RECAP: You have to love media overreaction sometimes. The 49ers were the NFC representative in the Super Bowl last year, yet the NFL Network’s David Carr stated that they are “done.” They’re done, apparently, because they didn’t have Kittle or Bosa on the field at the end of the Seattle game.

The 49ers are not playing well, particularly in the red zone, but they’re a very talented team and should be able to figure things out eventually. When they do, we’ll be getting them in a nice buy-low opportunity. The problem is that they’re so banged up. They already had a slew of injuries, and now Purdy is banged up as well.

Despite all of these injuries, the 49ers are a massive public dog. I think fading this is the right move, especially when the Packers have playoff revenge on their minds.

I’m not going to project a wager quite yet, but if the injury report looks bleak for the 49ers, I’ll be betting some number of units on the Packers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Nick Bosa or Trent Williams in Wednesday’s practice. The good news is that George Kittle wasn’t even on Wednesday’s injury report.

PLAYER PROPS: There are some injury question marks, so nothing stands out at the moment.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brock Purdy is out, causing this line to rise to -5.5. I normally like backing good teams playing their reserve quarterbacks, but can the 49ers be classified as a good team? Nick Bosa is out. Trent Williams is very injured. Charvarius Ward is out. Dre Greenlaw is out. Talanoa Hufanga is out. Brandon Aiyuk is out. I’m going to remain on the Packers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll see if Trent Williams plays. If he’s out, I may bet Green Bay at -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams is out. The sharps are on the Packers. As promised, I’m betting Green Bay. This will be a one-unit wager at -6 -113, found at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -1.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 56% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Kyle Shanahan is 12-7 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Packers are 65-43 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 53-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Chance of rain, 43 degrees. Light wind.