2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Ravens at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego, home of the San Diego Chargers and the San Diego A**holes who took one game from my Philadelphia Phillies the last time they played in the playoffs, but my Philadelphia Phillies aren’t nearly as great as my Philadelphia Eagles, who are definitely going to the super game. Guys, like I said last week, I’m the head honcho here, and I have a lot of influence, and so I went to the network heads and I demanded that I broadcast nothing but games featuring my Philadelphia Eagles. I thought about forcing them to have my Philadelphia Eagles win every game, but my Philadelphia Eagles are so great they don’t need any help. Ha! Do you guys agree? And if you don’t, I will punish you.

Emmitt: Thanks, Edge. It are very impressive that you the head nacho. I hope to one day have a lot of influenza like you has with the network head. But forgive me if I am oversleeping my boundary here but why you only talking to the corporate head? Why not the corporate arm, the corporate stomach, and the corporate toe?

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s just a figure of speech, like, “I’m so hungry I could eat a horse,” or “She’s as bright as the sun,” or “If you don’t vacuum the house and then rub Mother’s feet, Mother will take away all your Nick Foles bobbleheads.”

Tollefson: Reilly, I like that you brought up figures of speech, because we have one in my household. It goes like this: “Any female slave who cooks and cleans the worst each month will be buried six feet underground.” It’s a beautiful thing because not only does it keep them on their toes; they also get to enjoy this great figure of speech I have. Even the female slave who is buried each month gets to die knowing that she contributed to a great figure of speech!

Reilly: Tolly, if Mother let me talk to girls, I think I’d bury some of them six feet underground, too, especially the ones who laugh at me and wouldn’t want to talk to me, but don’t worry, I have their names written down in the basement, and I used Mother’s lipstick to write the names! Speaking of, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. This is the first NFL game where two sister coaches will battle each other. That’s right – both Jim and John Harbaugh transitioned into women, and they will now be known as Jaime and Joan Harbaugh. What a great day for diversity! Speaking of diversity, we are now joined by this woman with bushy hair. Hello, ma’am, who are you?

Javier Milei: AFUERA! AFUERA! Esta mujer es una idiota! Ella no es necesaria en esta transmision! Ninguno de ustedes, idiotas, es necesario en esta transmision porque son completamente inutiles!

Charissa Thompson: Did I just hear you say the word “porque?” I would like some pork, thank you, and please give me some truffled mashed potatoes as a side, please.

Javier Milei: AFUERA! AFUERA! Esta mujer no tiene idea de lo que esta haciendo! Es la peor reportera secundaria de todos los tiempos! Ninguno de ustedes sabe como retransmitir un partido de futbol, especialmente ese imbecil que colecciona munecos con cabezones de Nick Foles como si tuviera 10 anos, pero es un anciano raro que vive con su madre. Y, por cierto, nos merecemos un partido de la NFL porque hemos hecho que todo sea mucho mas eficiente en Argentina. Gracias y Dios los bendiga.

Reilly: Hold on, I’m putting this in Google translate now. Mother said I can use my phone as long as I don’t text any girls because they will corrupt me. Here is the translation: “This woman has no idea what she’s doing! She’s the worst sideline reporter ever! None of you know how to broadcast a football game, especially that moron who collects Nick Foles bobblehead dolls as if he were some 10-year-old, but he’s some weird old man living with his mother. And by the way, we deserve an NFL game because we’ve made everything so much more efficient in Argentina. Thank you, and God bless.” Who is he talking about when he said the weird old man? I collect Nick Foles bobblehead dolls, which are the greatest thing, but I’m definitely not some weird old man! Camel Toe Harry, who do you think this Javier Mallett guy is talking about?

Kamala Harris: When I was growing up in my middle-class family, we would talk about stuff. Because that’s what middle-class families did. They’d talk about stuff. And when we’d talk about stuff, we would talk about stuff. You know what I’m saying? We’d talk about stuff. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. We’d talk about stuff, because when you talk about stuff, stuff is what you talk about, HAHAHAHAHAHA. But I will be unburdened by what has been because I have met the most wonderful man tonight. He’s a strong man, a leader, a head honcho, and someone can ride with him to the top!

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, you are not riding with me to the top, you’re not riding with me anywhere, including the bottom, because that’s where you belong, the bottom, and not just the bottom, the very bottom, because you were the worst presidential candidate anyone has ever seen, and no one has ever seen anything like it, and believe it, people will ride with me to the top, and not just the top, the tippy top and even beyond that because we’re going to do so much winning that people will be sick of all the winning that we’ll do, and they’ll say, “Trump, we’re so tired of winning because you’re doing such a great job as president, so instead of winning, can we know what it feels like to lose sometime, Mr. Trump, can we please take a break from winning because it’s so boring, and you’re so great?” and I’ll tell them that they need to keep winning because if they don’t win, total losers like Kamala and Biden will win instead, and then everyone will lose, they will lose bigly, and then they’ll want to win again, and the only way they can do that is with Trump, who is the best candidate ever, and no one has ever seen anything like it, or at least that’s what I’ve been told.

Wolfley: DONALD, A FRIEND OF MINE WHO HAS LIPSTICK FOR FEET AND TONGUES FOR NOSES HAS OPENED A BUSINESS WHERE HE GIVES RIDES TO PEOPLE TO THE BOTTOM. HE CHARGES $19.99 PER TRIP AND $59.99 FOR TWO TRIPS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! The only ride to the top is with my Philadelphia Eagles, and no one can be on it except for me and New Daddy. Are you excited to ride to the top with me, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Oh yeah, sounds go great, I can’t wait, yay.

Reilly: New Daddy, I knew you’d want to ride with me to the top. You’re the best New Daddy ever!

Jay Cutler: Oh wait, I forgot I had other plans. Sorry!

Reilly: Well, I know you love me, New Daddy, so you’ll ride with me another time.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about rides, Kevin, so let’s begin with rides you can find at Disney World, Kevin. We can begin with Splash Mountain, Kevin. Next is Space Mountain, Kevin. What do you think about Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, Kevin? Lots of mountains at Disney World, Kevin. How about we segue to the Tower of Terror, Kevin? We can now touch on the Carousel of Progress, Kevin. Care to share about It’s a Small World, Kevin? Because you have small man parts, Kevin, so that song must have been written about you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, MOTHER SAYS I HAVE A SMALL MAN PART BECAUSE I’M A FLOWER WHO HASN’T BLOSSOMED YET, BUT AT LEAST I DON’T HAVE A SMALL BRAIN LIKE YOU! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The first thing I look at when handicapping how Baltimore’s offense will fare is how well the opponent does against mobile quarterbacks. The Chargers have battled two mobile quarterbacks this year: Kyler Murray and Bo Nix. They’ve limited those two players to 17 and 16 points, respectively, and the real number with Nix was zero because all 16 came in garbage time. Now, I know that neither is as mobile as Jackson, so let’s look to last year’s matchup, shall we? The Chargers held the Ravens to 20 points, with Jackson scrambling for only 39 rushing yards.

The Chargers have the elite players on the edge to keep Jackson contained. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack figure to apply plenty of pressure on him. Baltimore’s offensive line isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, and yet the Chargers were able to hound Jackson in that game.

The Ravens may have issues getting Derrick Henry established as well. The Chargers have been solid against the run this year, so Henry, who has been limited in some games recently, won’t have his best outing.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The offensive line isn’t Baltimore’s greatest concern. That’s because the defense has struggled so much this year. The Ravens were ranked 30th in defensive EPA heading into Week 11. They haven’t been able to cover receivers or tight ends at all.

Justin Herbert was struggling when he took on the Ravens last year, but he’s so much better right now. Herbert is playing at the top of his game, thanks to the upgraded coaching staff and healthier supporting cast. Ladd McConkey is really coming into his own, while Quentin Johnston is not playing like a bust anymore. Will Dissly is also coming off a great game, and he should have another positive performance in this contest.

The only area in which the Chargers will fail is running the ball. While the Ravens can’t stop the pass at all, they’re stellar against the run, so J.K. Dobbins won’t be able to get revenge.

RECAP: We’ll get to see if my Overrated-Underrated NFL list is accurate at all. I’ve had the Ravens as overrated and the Chargers as underrated for most of the year.

It should come as no surprise that I’m on the Chargers. I’m not in love with fading the Ravens off a loss – they’re 20-13 against the spread in such situations in the Jackson era – but Baltimore simply continues to be overvalued. The Ravens have some major problems, particularly on defense. They can’t cover receivers or tight ends at all, and there aren’t many quarterbacks playing better than Herbert. He’ll be able to take advantage of these good matchups. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ stellar pass rush should be able to hound Jackson.

Despite these great mismatches favoring the Chargers, this line is shaded too much toward Baltimore. I personally made this line Chargers -1, while EPA has this at Chargers -5.5. The metrics have hated the Ravens all year. But really, this spread hardly makes any sense. The Ravens and Bengals battled in two games decided by just four total points, and either contest could have gone to Cincinnati. Yet, the Chargers were -1.5 against the Bengals last week, and they’re +3 now versus Baltimore in the same location. Why is there a difference of 4.5 points? It seems completely unwarranted.

One more reason to bet the Chargers: Offensive coordinator Greg Roman coached the Ravens recently. He’s very familiar with the team, including Jackson, whom he worked with very closely. This gives the Chargers a great advantage in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We may lock this in soon because the vig movement is indicating that the line may drop to +2.5. I’d like to see a couple of injury reports though.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens had some key players miss Friday’s practice, including Tyler Linderbaum and Roquan Smith. The final injury report will be interesting.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Chargers to +2.5. It sucks because we were waiting on the final injury report. Hopefully we find a viable +3, but I have my doubts.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I still love the Chargers. In fact, I think I’ll be betting the -2.5 alt line.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Ravens don’t cover the middle of the field at all. Will Dissly’s production has increased a lot recently, so I like his over receiving yards. The best number is over 43.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to parlay Dissly over 44.5 receiving yards (at FanDuel) with Quentin Johnston anytime touchdown, Gus Edwards under 25.5 rushing yards, and Justin Herbert over 263.5 passing yards. All Johnston does is catch touchdowns, and all the Ravens do is allow passing touchdowns. Gus Edwards will have issues running against the Ravens. The Chargers are throwing more, and they’re going to be battling a pass-funnel offense. This $25 parlay pays $343.46 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Chargers at +3, but not at +2.5. Luckily, there are some +3s still available, with the best line being +3 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

As promised, I’m betting the Chargers -2.5. The best line for that is -2.5 +162 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Decent action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 65% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

John Harbaugh is 15-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.