2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Steelers at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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Week 11 Analysis: The good news is that we had a monster week. The bad news is that we lost our November NFL Pick of the Month. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Browns, 8 units (loss): This looked like another instance of horrible luck with Dustin Hopkins missing three field goals, including two chip shots. The Browns still tied the game at 14 in the fourth quarter, but then showed a complete unwillingness to tackle Taysom Hill.

Rams, 5 units (win): The Rams were comfortably ahead for most of the game, but the Patriots gave us a bit of a scare at the end.

Steelers, 3 units (win): Yet another Steelers win over the Ravens.

Lions, 4 units (win): I can’t believe I only bet four units on this game. This should have been my November NFL Pick of the Month. But as a wise man once said, hindsight is 50/50.

Vikings, 3 units (win): It’s nice to see that we were right about the Vikings in Week 10, but suffered some bad luck. Hopefully this all turns around.

Texans, 5 units (win): Not only did we get this right; we also hit -13.5 +200 and -20.5 +480!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It seems odd to say this because they won, but the Steelers had a disappointing outcome against the Ravens on Sunday. I expected a much better offensive performance from them against an ailing Baltimore defense that can’t cover receivers or tight ends whatsoever, yet Pittsburgh could only kick six field goals in the game.

The Browns are a worse team than the Ravens, obviously, but they present a tougher matchup on this side of the ball. They can get after the quarterback with Myles Garrett and defend outside receivers well with their talented cornerbacks. The Steelers don’t pass protect well, so Russell Wilson may not have enough time to release his patented moon balls.

I wouldn’t expect the Steelers to run very well either. The Browns have been able to restrict running backs very well all year. I’d be worried if the Steelers acquired a fullback tight end to pummel through their defense, but Pittsburgh doesn’t even use Pat Freiermuth effectively.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns have been better offensively ever since they’ve gone to Jameis Winston. The results don’t quite show it except for the upset victory over Baltimore, but they’ve been able to move the chains more effectively since Watson’s injury.

Winston has been able to hit some deep throws against Baltimore and New Orleans, but this is a different sort of matchup. Winston saw something similar against the Chargers where he threw three interceptions and easily could have been picked on a couple of other occasions. The Steelers have a great defense and can put lots of pressure on Winston, who may not have his top two left tackles in front of him.

The Steelers won’t exactly have to worry about the run either. Nick Chubb used to be a great running back, but he’s a shell of his former self after the brutal knee injury he suffered last year. Chubb had a great matchup last week, but couldn’t even take advantage of it. The Steelers are much better versus the rush than the Saints are.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

There’s no question that the Steelers are the superior team in this matchup. Pittsburgh has a great edge in this contest with its defense battling Winston. Under normal circumstances, the Steelers would be worth a multi-unit play.

However, these are not normal circumstances. The Steelers are almost certain not to be focused. They’re coming off a huge win against the Ravens, so they’re likely to be deflated. This is also a horrible historical spot for Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 15-30 against the spread as road favorites coming off a win under Tomlin. While he’s a great coach, Tomlin has been an easy fade as a favorite following a victory.

I can’t bring myself to bet the Browns, however. They’re just at such a disadvantage on a short week. I’ll side with them for office pool purposes, and I would bet them if this game were on a Sunday, but I can’t place a wager on them in this situation.

Our Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Definite rain and mild-heavy winds are in the forecast, so don’t expect much offense. These conditions benefit the Steelers, so this is another reason to avoid the Browns, despite the great history of fading Mike Tomlin in these situations.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I don’t get Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop. Maybe ‘member berries are involved, but 52.5 is too high considering that he hasn’t topped 52 rushing yards this year. Only two running backs (Tyrone Tracy, Rico Dowdle) have beaten expectations against Pittsburgh’s run defense, so it’s not like Chubb has an easy matchup. Chubb is a shell of his former self right now. The best number is under 52.5 rushing yards +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re throwing in the Chubb rushing yard under with Russell Wilson under 10.5 rushing yards, Darnell Washington over 11.5 receiving yards, and Jaylen Warren over 12.5 receiving yards. Wilson hasn’t rushed for double-digit rushing yards yet this year, so why would he start now? Washington has been targeted more than Pat Freiermuth since Wilson took over at quarterback. And Warren is healthy now. With there being poor weather conditions, Warren could get lots of looks as a receiver out of the backfield. This $25 parlay pays $250 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which comes as no surprise. I’d love the Browns in this spot, but I don’t trust them at all. If you like Cleveland, you can actually get a +4 -111 line at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers will likely be flat off Sunday’s win versus the Ravens.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.

Computer Model: Steelers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (253,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 39 of the last 48 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Steelers are 31-16 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 47 instances.

Steelers are 15-30 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Russell Wilson is 26-19 ATS in night games.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Rain, 38 degrees. Mild/heavy wind, 14 mph.