2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Eagles at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Saquon Barkley would have enjoyed this matchup much more earlier in the year. The Rams dealt with injuries to begin the season and had issues versus the run as a consequence. They’ve limited rushers since they’ve gotten healthier, which includes restricting De’Von Achane to minimal gains on the ground a couple of weeks ago.

Barkley, however, is incredible, and could break some long gains regardless of his opponent. Still, Barkley likely won’t have one of his best games, so it’ll be on Jalen Hurts to move the chains. Hurts will be battling a Rams front seven that generates lots of pressure, so it’s key that he’s protected well because he’d have a difficult time otherwise.

The Rams have a terrific defense, but there are some weaknesses. They tend to struggle against tight ends and slot receivers. Dallas Goedert being healthy now could factor into this matchup, while DeVonta Smith could be more productive than A.J. Brown.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Eagles struggled on this side of the ball to start the year, but things have changed drastically. They now maintain the No. 1 EPA defense in the NFL.

Much of Philadelphia’s improvement has to do with the emergence of the two rookie cornerbacks, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. If they weren’t playing so well, the Rams would have a great edge in this game with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp being both healthy. However, Mitchell and DeJean should be able to limit Nacua and Kupp, respectively.

The Rams likely won’t get much on the ground either. The Eagles struggled against the run to start the year, but their front seven has greatly improved since the bye. Kyren Williams is still a special talent, so he won’t be completely shut down, but he won’t have one of his best games either.

RECAP: I hate that these teams are battling each other. I’ve been backing the Eagles in most games since they’ve gotten all of their injured players back following their bye. I’ve also been backing the Rams in every game since they’ve gotten both receivers healthy.

These are two of the better teams in the NFL, so I don’t really see a great betting angle. Philadelphia is better than Los Angeles, but the Rams have Circadian rhythms on their side with this game taking place at night. I also think the correct spread is Philadelphia -1.5 or -2, so we’re getting the slightest value with the Rams.

Despite this slight value, I’m going to side with the Eagles because I believe they’re the superior team, and they can take advantage of some of the matchups better than the Rams can. However, I definitely don’t plan on betting this game. In fact, I’d be on the Rams if this line were +3.5. That’s how close this game is for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Hurts was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but reports indicate that he’ll play. DeVonta Smith, however, missed Wednesday’s practice entirely, so we’ll have to wait on him.

SATURDAY NOTES: DeVonta Smith is out, which is the only major injury in this game aside from the Rams missing Rob Havenstein. Neither absence will affect my handicap.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Dallas Goedert looks great in this matchup. The Rams are weak to tight ends, and Goedert will get a bump with DeVonta Smith sidelined. The best number is over 48.5 -115 at BetMGM.

We’re going to throw in the Goedert prop, which is 51.5 on FanDuel, with Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown, A.J. Brown over 89.5 receiving yards, and Kyren Williams over 14.5 receiving yards. Hurts has scored in five consecutive games, and this could easily be No. 6. Brown will also benefit from Smith being out. And Williams should become the latest receiving back to beat expectations against the Eagles. This $25 parlay is 25-percent boosted on FanDuel and pays $335.76. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no strong opinion on this matchup, which is a bummer because it’s a stand-alone game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, DeVonta Smith and Rob Havenstein are sidelined. I still have no desire to bet this game, and neither do the sharps, apparently, because they haven’t taken either side. The best line is -3 +100 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 58% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Jalen Hurts is 9-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.