2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Cardinals at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: Without looking, try to guess which team currently has the No. 1 adjusted EPA offense in the NFL. OK, well, I sort of gave it away by placing that question in this location, but yes, it’s Arizona.

The Cardinals have been so explosive on this side of the ball. Kyler Murray has been outstanding, as he’s been able to take advantage of his talented weapons. He’s also protected very well. This is troubling for the Seahawks, who rank about in the middle of the pack in pressure rate. Murray figures to have plenty of time to locate Trey McBride, who has a terrific matchup.

James Conner also figures to thrive. The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses when it comes to stopping the run. Conner has been enjoying a terrific year, so he’ll pick up where he left off prior to the bye.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Cardinals were expected to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, but that hasn’t been the case. They’ve been about league average, which is good enough for the team to win if the offense is going to be so explosive.

The Cardinals happen to be mediocre in all defensive categories. This includes their ability against the run, but they’ll need to be great to contain Kenneth Walker, who is coming off a rough matchup and will be motivated to rebound.

Walker’s great running will open things up for Geno Smith, who needs all the help he can get in the wake of the surprise retirement by Connor Williams. The Cardinals generate quality pressure on the quarterback, so Smith won’t have all the time he needs to locate his talented receivers. Smith will be hoping for Noah Fant to return to action because Arizona has been soft to tight ends.

RECAP: I’m a fan of fading bad teams coming off wins. It may seem odd to suggest that Seattle is a bad team because of the 5-5 record, but the EPA figures suggest that they are the fourth-worst team in the NFL. I don’t quite have it that way, as my NFL Power Rankings have them as the 21st-best team in the NFL.

At any rate, the Seahawks are coming off a big win against the 49ers, so they seem like a decent fade against Arizona. The Cardinals are the better team, and my numbers say that they should be favored in this game. I have Arizona at -1.5. The EPA numbers have this as a baffling Arizona -10. The metrics absolutely despise the Seahawks.

I can’t say I’m too keen on backing the Cardinals off a bye, given that Murray tends to get distracted by video games. I’m not confident in his preparation for the Seahawks. However, I will be backing them for office pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two things: First, Leonard Williams missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. Second, it’s expected to rain in Seattle this Sunday, which is not good news for Geno Smith, who struggles in the rain despite quarterbacking the Seahawks.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks tend to struggle against tight ends. They haven’t battled a quality tight end in a while, but they’ll have issues stopping Trey McBride. The best number is over 51.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The red-hot Cardinals might be getting two key players back from injury, with Jonah Williams and Darius Robinson being limited all week. Despite this, I still have no play on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still leaning toward the Cardinals, but can’t quite get myself to bet the game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jonah Williams will return for Arizona. I don’t know if this is related, but there has been late sharp money coming in on Arizona. The Cardinals are now favored everywhere. The best line is -1 -108 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

Was Kyler Murray distracted during the bye?

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.

Computer Model: Cardinals -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 52% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Road team has won 13 of the past 18 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.

Seahawks are 21-9 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Rain, 48 degrees. Light wind.