2024 NFL Picks – Week 12: Lions at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions did whatever they wanted last week. They scored seven touchdowns on their first seven drives against Jacksonville. No one should have been surprised by this because the Jaguars struggle mightily against running backs and slot receivers, and that’s exactly where the Lions generate most of their production.

The Colts are far better against slot receivers, but can’t stop the run. Breece Hall just had a huge game against them, albeit in a loss, so David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should both perform well. This will obviously make things much easier for Jared Goff, who did well to bounce back from his ugly five-interception performance.

Though Amon-Ra St. Brown won’t have a great matchup, the Lions should still be able to move the ball. Jameson Williams is back, and he’ll be able to take advantage of some bad cornerback play. The Colts are also poor to tight ends, so Sam LaPorta will thrive if he can return to the field.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Unlike the Colts, the Lions stop the run extremely well. This is crucial against the Colts, who want to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor as much as possible.

Taylor won’t be able to get much on the ground, so Anthony Richardson will have to take matters into his own hands, or perhaps legs. Richardson didn’t scramble as much as expected last week, but that could change if Taylor is stymied. The Lions don’t see mobile quarterbacks very often, so that could be an advantage for Richardson.

As for Richardson’s hands, it’s always a mystery as to what we’ll see. Richardson can make some beautiful downfield throws, but he can also be very erratic as well. He was relatively accurate last week, so if that continues, he’ll have success delivering passes to Josh Downs, who has a nice matchup against a Detroit defense that surrenders lots of slot production.

RECAP: I imagine some public bettors may view this as the easiest bet on the board. Everyone just saw the Lions win 52-6. How could they not destroy another AFC South team?

Well, there are a couple of reasons to believe this game will go differently. First, the Colts are much better than the Mac Jones-led Jaguars. They haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points this year. Furthermore, they kept their two battles versus Houston to a combined four points, and we just saw the Lions barely win in Houston.

Second, this is a tough look-ahead spot for the Lions. They have to prepare for a divisional opponent in just four days. It’s just the Bears, but that game is much more meaningful for them than this non-conference clash.

It’s nice that we’re getting a bit of value with the Colts as well. The advance line was -7, but because of 52-6, this line has gone above that key number. My projected lines are Detroit -6 and -3.5 (power rankings and EPA, respectively), so if those are correct, then we were already getting good value with Detroit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sam LaPorta practiced fully on Wednesday, so he’s on track to return to action. I thought the Lions might hold him out with another game in four days, but barring a setback, he’ll play.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Amon-Ra St. Brown to score a touchdown last week, and we won with that bet. We’re going back to the well with St. Brown now having scores in eight consecutive games. St. Brown catches more passes against zone defenses, and the Colts are one of the heaviest zone teams in the NFL. The best number is -125 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Something I neglected to mention a couple of days ago was that Alex Anzalone landed on injured reserve. This isn’t enough to bump up my unit count on the Colts, which will remain at two.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps took the Colts at +7.5, causing the line to drop to +7. However, you can still get +7.5 -110 at DraftKings. I still like the Colts for two units. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Lions play against the Bears on Thanksgiving in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.

Computer Model: Lions -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Who isn’t going to bet the Lions?

Percentage of money on Detroit: 78% (153,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Lions are 8-11 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Lions -7.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.