2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Raiders at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa fantasy owners who were awaiting his return have been disappointed by the results thus far. Tagovailoa hasn’t been overly impressive since coming back from his concussion. He hasn’t even reached 240 passing yards in any of his three games.

There’s reason to believe that Tagovailoa will exceed that number in this game. He’s had two tough matchups the past two weeks, battling the Bills and Rams, both of whom have top-four EPA defenses. The Raiders are 29th. Their secondary is a mess, and they’re not getting as much pressure on the quarterback as they did last year, ranking in the middle of the pack.

The Raiders are especially weak to tight ends and pass-catching running backs. Jonnu Smith figures to do well, while De’Von Achane will run circles against the Raiders’ beleaguered defense.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders’ starting quarterback has also missed some time, though no one is awaiting Aidan O’Connell’s return. Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder both saw action in the previous game, and both were horrible.

Whether it’s Minshew or Ridder, the Raiders’ signal-caller will have to deal with lots of pressure in this game. The Dolphins don’t rank highly in pressure rate, but Zach Sieler returned from injury last week and had a huge impact. Miami puts tons of pressure on Matthew Stafford, who is protected much better than the Raider quarterbacks are.

It must be noted that the Dolphins suffered a couple of injuries to their cornerbacks on Monday night, so if Kendall Fuller and Kader Kohou can’t go, the Raiders might be able to have some success throwing the ball, especially in the fourth quarter in back-door territory.

RECAP: A great rule to follow concerning backup quarterbacks is to fade them automatically if they’re matched up against a top defense. Conversely, you can bet them if they’re going up against a mediocre or worse stop unit.

This obviously applies to the Raiders, but I don’t know what to make of Miami’s defense. The Dolphins are 22nd in adjusted defensive EPA. However, they looked so good Monday night. Perhaps this was the Rams just imploding for no reason, but the Miami stop unit looked like the real deal. It helped that Sieler was on the field and playing out of his mind. His presence is such a boon for the pass rush.

Sieler being on the field is very problematic for the Raiders, who can’t score. I know Miami’s offense has been shaky the past couple of weeks, but the Dolphins have gone up against some tough defenses, with the Bills and Rams both ranking in the top four of defensive EPA. Things will get much easier for the Dolphins, with the Raiders ranking 29th.

I’m leaning to the Dolphins at the moment, but I hate that we’re getting such poor value with the advance spread being -7. Also, there’s a chance the Dolphins could be down multiple cornerbacks, which would help the Raiders get a back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line dropped from +7.5 to +7. Tyreek Hill missed Wednesday’s practice, and Gardner Minshew was announced as the Raiders’ quarterback. Las Vegas looks better now, but I’m still leaning Miami.

PLAYER PROPS: There are no player props posted as of Friday morning. Nothing really stands out anyway.

SATURDAY NOTES: I already didn’t want much to do with the Dolphins. If Terron Armstead is out, I may switch my pick to the Raiders. Armstead didn’t practice all week. He started by just having veteran rest, but a knee issue was added later in the week. Robert Jones was also limited in practice this week, so there’s a lot to watch for Sunday morning when the inactives list is released.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp money to speak of here, which is not a surprise. This line is all over the place. If you like the Raiders, you can get +8.5 at FanDuel. You can get -7.5 -110 at Caesars if you’re on Miami. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -7.

Computer Model: Dolphins -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Miami: 80% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 32-47 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.