2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Bengals at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow did all he could last Thursday night, but it wasn’t enough. Despite 38- and 34-point efforts against the Ravens, he was swept by them in losses by a combined four points.

Seventy-two points in two games is a great figure, but it’s not really a surprising one, considering the matchup. The Ravens are 30th in adjusted defensive EPA, as they’ve been getting torched by everyone all year, dating back to Xavier Worthy in Week 1 and Gardner Minshew in Week 2. The Chargers, conversely, have a great stop unit ranked second in defensive EPA. They have two great edge rushers who will make life difficult for Burrow, especially if left tackle Orlando Brown is out again.

The Bengals might be able to get something going on the ground. The Chargers aren’t poor against the rush, but they aren’t great against it either. Chase Brown runs like he’s shot out of a cannon, and he’s getting all of the workload in the wake of Zack Moss’ injury. He’s also getting receiving work. Brown could set up some short-yardage situations for Burrow to connect with Ja’Marr Chase. The dynamic wideout projects well, as the Chargers have given up big games to No. 1 receivers in each of the past three weeks.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Bengals will probably have success offensively, and we know the Chargers will as well. This is an easy matchup for everyone involved, after all.

The Bengals are one of the worst teams when it comes to stopping the run. This is not ideal in this matchup because all John Harbaugh wants to do is run the ball. J.K. Dobbins continues to be excellent, and he should thrive against a Cincinnati defense that continues to miss D.J. Reader.

Cincinnati is even worse against the pass. The secondary is a complete disaster. It would have been ideal for the Bengals to battle the Chargers several weeks ago when Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey were both dealing with injuries, but they’re both healthy now. The best thing the Bengals do on this side of the ball is rush the passer on the edge, so that’s how they’ll aim to disrupt Justin Herbert. However, Herbert is protected well, so I’m not anticipating Herbert to be rattled at all.

RECAP: Here’s another game where a great quarterback is an underdog. Like Mahomes, Burrow is getting some number of points fewer than three.

Unlike Mahomes, however, Burrow is coming off a loss. I’m a fan of betting great quarterbacks following a defeat unless they are huge favorites. Burrow is going to be at his best, especially given that he can’t afford to fall to 4-7. I know the old saying that if a team needs to win, it’s not good enough to begin with, but the point is that Burrow is going to be dialed into this matchup.

While I plan to bet on Cincinnati, this won’t be a top play for me. I like Chargers too much. We’ve been on the Chargers quite often of late because they’ve been a severely underrated team that has dominated its competition. The Chargers have the better overall talent and coaching, and I would argue that this spread should be higher than it is, even when considering Cincinnati’s extra rest. We’re not getting the appropriate value with Cincinnati that we should be receiving.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Orlando Brown is off to a bad start this week. He missed Wednesday’s practice. He’ll be crucial to have against the talented Charger edge rushers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tee Higgins will be back, but the Bengals have two top defenders who are questionable (Trey Hendrickson, B.J. Hill). Orlando Brown is also questionable after being downgraded on Friday. This is troubling, and if all of these players are out, I won’t be betting Cincinnati. I’ll have my final thoughts posted around 7:45 p.m. Eastern on Sunday.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I thought Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop would be in the 80s, but it’s in the 70s. The Chargers have had issues against No. 1 receivers, so I like Chase’s matchup. Tee Higgins is back, but Chase tends to do better with Higgins on the field because he doesn’t see as many double teams. The best number is over 77.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

I’m going to toss in the Chase prop with the following: Chase Brown over 23.5 receiving yards, Mike Gesicki over 30.5 receiving yards, Will Dissly over 3.5 receptions. The Chargers can be beaten over the middle of the field, so I like Brown and Gesicki. Brown especially looks great, as he’s done everything since Zack Moss got hurt. As for Dissly, he’s caught four or more passes in all but one game recently. This $25 parlay with a 30-percent profit boost pays $337.03 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TEASER ADDED: I’m also teasing the Bengals and the Texans. Joe Burrow, like Kirk Cousins, will be able to keep the game close if behind in the second half. This can be found for -120 vig at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: It’s worth noting that there’s no sharp money coming in on the Chargers. Given all the public money on the Bengals, Cincinnati could be a road favorite by kickoff if the sharps don’t come in on San Angeles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp money coming in on either side. I thought Khalil Mack’s absence might change that, but it didn’t. This line is +1 almost everywhere, but you can get +1.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 87% (181,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.