2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Vikings at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: What an embarrassment. Sam Darnold was horrendous last week. He moved the chains well in between the 20s, but he self-destructed in the red zone. He threw three interceptions deep in Jacksonville territory, including two on attempts into the end zone. As a result, the Vikings scored just 12 points when they should’ve had a much greater offensive output.

Darnold will be able to redeem himself in this game. The Titans are likely to once again miss both starting cornerbacks. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should be able to take advantage of their quality matchups.

Darnold could also look to Aaron Jones as a receiving threat out of the backfield. The Titans are strong against the run, but they have weak linebackers who allow significant yardage to receiving backs.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: One reason I loved the Vikings last week was that their excellent defense was going to befuddle Mac Jones. That’s exactly what happened, as Jones led the Jaguars to just seven points. Unfortunately, Darnold sabotaged what should have been a sure cover.

I feel similarly about this matchup. Will Levis has plenty of talent, but there’s nothing upstairs. It shouldn’t shock anyone that Levis is horrendous against the blitz. His completion percentage plummets by 10.8 percentage points, while his YPA falls by 0.8. He has thrown six touchdown and four interceptions when not blitzed, but when he’s blitzed, he has one touchdown and three interceptions.

The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Brian Flores will confuse Levis all day long, and there will be interceptions to make up for the rare pick-free performance last week. Levis won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack either, as only one running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) has exceeded expectations against Minnesota this year.

RECAP: OK, let’s try this again. We bet the Vikings heavily last week against the Jaguars, but got screwed out of a cover. We’re going to bet the Vikings as a road favorite at an AFC South opponent once again.

This won’t be a five-unit wager, but it’ll be a substantial bet. If the Vikings don’t shoot themselves in the foot again, they won’t have an issue covering. The Titans are a horrible team that is quarterbacked poorly. This is an awful matchup for Levis, who will be confused by what Flores is sending at him. Tennessee won’t be scoring very much, so it’ll be up to Darnold to not throw interceptions for a change. Given that he had such an issue with it last week, I have to imagine that he’ll be more careful with the football this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: L’Jarius Sneed missed Wednesday’s practice, and if that wasn’t bad enough, Tennessee’s slot corner, Roger McCreary, also missed Wednesday’s practice. The Titans could be down their top three cornerbacks against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, which seems way too difficult to overcome.

PLAYER PROPS: You guys know where I’m going with this. Will Levis is an interception machine. He sucks against the blitz, and the Vikings blitz at the highest clip in the NFL. Minnesota also has the most interceptions in the league. What could possibly happen!? The best number is over 0.5 interceptions -145 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: We can confirm that the Titans won’t have both starting cornerbacks, which should make Sam Darnold’s life easier. The Vikings don’t have a single player on the injury report (not including injured reserve).

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action on this game. I was hoping for a viable -5.5 line. The best I see is -5.5 -120 at FanDuel. I don’t want to pay 20 cents for six. So, we’re going to take -6 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Vikings may be looking ahead to the Bears next week, but probably not.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

All Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 89% (101,0000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Titans are 30-21 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Very slight chance of rain, 66 degrees. Light wind.