2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Browns at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 24-22 ATS through nine weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Vikings -7

Falcons -3.5

Chargers -7.5

Eagles -7.5

Bills -4.5

The public lost their top two plays, but won the next three. The public is now 27-24.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Saints -1

Chiefs +2.5

Lions -13

Packers -6

Bengals +1.5

All make sense except for the Bengals. I’m a bit surprised by that, but maybe I shouldn’t be because no one recognized that the Chargers are a good team yet.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints lost Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but everything is OK now because Marquez Valdes-Scantling is here to save the day. Valdes-Scantling inexplicably scored two touchdowns last week in a surprise upset over Atlanta.

If you couldn’t tell by my sarcasm, I’d be shocked if that happens again. If the Saints are going to depend on Valdes-Scantling for their passing attack, they’re going to be very disappointed, especially against Cleveland. The Browns can bring the heat with Myles Garrett, which ruins any chance for New Orleans to have a deep passing game because Carr isn’t well protected. Carr won’t have much time in the backfield when facing down Garrett.

Carr won’t be able to lean on Alvin Kamara either. The Browns are outstanding against the run, and they also handle pass-catching backs rather well. It’s going to be a difficult afternoon for New Orleans’ offense.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Conversely, the Browns won’t have much of an issue scoring. Jameis Winston is coming off a rough three-interception performance, but he played well the prior week against the Ravens. New Orleans’ current defense is closer to Baltimore’s than the Chargers’, except that unlike the Ravens, the Saints can’t stop the run.

Nick Chubb hasn’t been very good since his return from injury, but another two weeks should help him. It’s also worth noting that he has stared down some tough run defenses (Ravens, Chargers). The Saints are woeful against the run, so Chubb should have his best performance of the season.

Chubb’s solid running will make things even easier for Winston. The Saints are down their top three cornerbacks, so Winston will have open receivers at his disposal. New Orleans is particularly poor to tight ends and slot receivers, so David Njoku and Elijah Moore figure to thrive the most.

RECAP: This is a great spot to fade the Saints. I love going against bad teams coming off victories because they have major issues sustaining success. The Saints are obviously a bad team, and they don’t have a real football coach. Not that Dennis Allen was any good, but Darren Rizzi can only give them so much. Remember, Jeff Saturday won his first game, and then failed to win after that.

The Saints have so many injuries, so it’s going to be difficult for them to be competitive most weeks. I know they just beat Atlanta, but the Falcons were unfocused, and yet they even outgained New Orleans, 468-365. The Saints, with Valdes-Scantling as the top receiving option, don’t have much of a chance, especially against a talented defense.

I also like that we’re getting a Browns team that was embarrassed prior to the bye. Cleveland beat the Ravens, but then was in an obvious down spot – the same one the Saints are in now – against the Chargers, who have crushed bad teams this year. The Browns have had two weeks to stew about this defeat, so I believe they’ll be motivated.

Furthermore, I have the Browns as the better team, so I believe they should be favored in this matchup. My line and the actual spread are only two points apart across zero, but it’s another reason to love Cleveland. I’m considering this as my November NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Cleveland players missed practice Wednesday, so that’s great news. The Saints had two DNPs of note on Wednesday: Lucas Patrick and Pete Werner.

PLAYER PROPS: The Saints are the worst team in the NFL against slot receivers. Elijah Moore has been more productive over the past three games, so I like him to go over the receiving yards total in this game. The best line is over 37.5 receiving yards -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Pete Werner is out, but Lucas Patrick and Erik McCoy could be back for the Saints. This is great for their chances to combat Cleveland’s pass rush, but they still have other problems like their receiving corps and cornerbacks. The Browns are the better team at almost every position, and every AFC North team has clobbered the NFC South opponent on the road this year. I don’t see why this game would be any different. I’m certain this will be my November NFL Pick of the Month, but I also love Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Browns. They’ve taken this line from +1.5 to -2 in many sportsbooks. Let’s hope the Browns don’t win by only one (or lose, obviously) because this is my November NFL Pick of the Month. The best line is Browns -1.5 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Saints just pulled off a big upset. The Browns were blown out prior to the bye.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

So much money on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 72% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Opening Line: Saints -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.