2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Rams at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

Our friend Nephtali is back! We talked to him last week, and the conversation continued the next day.

I can’t imagine ever bragging about betting six-team teasers. If I ever reach that stage of insanity, please lock me up in a mental ward.

Anyway, Nephtali began talking about paying for BANGER VIP plays, which sounds like a scam:

Imagine paying for a package with just three picks all year. That’s worse than betting six-team teasers.

I was trolling him at this point, but the whole thing seems sketchy. I joked about Nephtali sending nudes to this guy last week, but I may have been on to something there.

I’m referring to the Supercontest and the Circa Million. All of this can be verified on their Web sites. It’s kind of dumb to laugh at that when it can easily be fact checked. It’s like telling someone rises in the east, and then that person laughing at you because they don’t believe you.

I provided proof that I went 5-0 there, which concluded our conversation.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It was staggering to see how many mistakes the Rams committed Monday night. They’re a well-coached team, yet they constantly shot themselves in the foot with fumbles, penalties, and missed blocking assignments.

I’d be shocked if Sean McVay doesn’t fix things, even on a short week. The Chargers were guilty of a similar performance in Arizona, yet Jim Harbaugh corrected things just six days later. The Rams should be able to figure out their offensive line woes that stemmed from two talented players returning from injury. The Patriots have the 10th-worst pressure rate in the NFL despite the nine sacks they generated against Caleb Williams, so it should be easy to solve things against them.

The Patriots are also especially poor versus the run. Kyren Williams will have a huge performance, setting up Matthew Stafford in favorable passing situations. New England struggles against slot receivers, so Cooper Kupp should have a great game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots didn’t do anything special on this side of the ball in their victory over the Bears. They refrained from making mistakes and engineered some scoring drives against a dysfunctional opponent.

That’s not going to fly against the Rams. New England won’t get Rhamondre Stevenson going because Los Angeles is stellar against the run. Stevenson and Antonio Gibson were able to hit 100 rushing yards against Chicago, but getting half as many yards on the ground could be a challenge versus the Rams.

Drake Maye will be operating in long-yardage situations, which will be a big problem because the Rams can generate lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Los Angeles is actually No. 1 in pressure rate, and the Patriots have major blocking woes, so Maye will be forced into some turnovers.

RECAP: The Rams had a surprising loss on Monday night. Not that suffering a defeat as a two-point favorite was shocking, but Los Angeles made a ton of mistakes under McVay, which seldom happens.

I like getting the Rams off such a loss. They’re very well coached, so I would expect them to play at their best, even after flying across the country on a short week. The Rams have done this four times under McVay, by the way, and they’re 3-1 against the spread in these situations.

While backing a good team like the Rams off a loss sounds good, fading a bad team like the Patriots off a victory seems even better. There’s a lot of money to be made going against poor teams coming off victories because they struggle to sustain success. The Rams seem like a great play for both reasons, and we’re getting a bit of line value, with the spread dropping a point because of the Week 10 results. Not that -5.5 to -4.5 is worth much, but it’s a 2.7-percent boost in our favor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Those hoping for Rob Havenstein to return to action couldn’t be happy that he missed practice on Wednesday, but there’s still time for him to get back to the practice field.

PLAYER PROPS: Cooper Kupp had a rough return to action, but he’s been great the past two weeks. He should go over his receiving yards prop, especially given that the Patriots are one of the worst teams against slot receivers. The best number is over 67.5 receiving yards at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Rob Havenstein, but I’m not worried about that, given New England’s pedestrian pass rush. If I were on the Patriots, I’d be way more worried about them blocking the Rams. This could be like the Texans-Patriots blowout we saw a few weeks ago, to echo what Evan said on the show on Tuesday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Patriots for some reason. I don’t get it, but that just means we’re getting a much better line. The best spread is -4 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams are a good team coming off a loss on national TV. The Patriots are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.5.

Computer Model: Rams -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Growing action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 77% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sean McVay is 8-5 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: Rams -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.