2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Texans at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Dallas, the worst place in the world. Tonight, the stupid and dumb Cowboys take on the Houston Texas. Guys, I hate the Cowboys more than anything. I usually spend my allowance money on Nick Foles bobbleheads, but because I knew I was broadcasting this game tonight, I spent my allowance on Dak Prescott bobbleheads and then gave the rest of the money to a voodoo lady who would curse the bobbleheads, and then I would get my revenge for the Cowboys beating my Philadelphia Eagles last year, which, let’s face it, only occurred because of cheating! And now Dak is hurt, hahahaha!

Emmitt: Thanks, Tellah. I think you making a big missed steak by laughing at other people missed fortune. It really not funny when people get hurt on the football field because they train so hard running up hill to play football and then the injuryness make it so they cannot even play. And if you laugh at other people missed fortuneism, then he gonna get you. And by he, I mean Karmen. Karmen is a thing that mean if you bad to somebody, then the badness also gonna happen to you as well. I try to avoid Karem as best as possibles.

Reilly: Emmitt, I don’t believe in Karmen. If I didn’t learn it in Mother’s homeschooling class, then it’s not real. You’re just making stuff up because you’re a sleeper agent sent from the Cowboys to ruin my Philadelphia Eagles from going to the Super Bowl, aren’t you?

Tollefson: Reilly, Emmitt is right. Karmen is real. Ah, Karmen, the love of my life. We met about a decade ago. She would do great things around the house, and she was my best naked cook and naked cleaner. But one day, she tried to escape, and when I asked why, she said I was keeping her captive as a female slave. The nerve! So, I had to end our relationship, and I’m heartbroken. I still visit her grave in the woods sometimes.

Reilly: Tolly, I’d go with you to support your lost love, but Mother says the woods are too scary for me. Plus, she doesn’t let me talk to women, so visiting a woman’s grave might be taboo. Speaking of taboo, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I have some breaking news. Dak Prescott is injured, and I’m the first to report it because I’m a great journalist. We’re joined tonight by a man who is so orange that his skin is burning my face. Sir, who are you, and what do you want?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, my skin color is not orange, it’s tangerine, that’s the hue I chose at the tanning salon, and it’s the best hue of orange anyone has ever seen, or that’s what I’ve been told, and everyone should try to make their skin tangerine, but they can’t because it’s difficult to make your skin tangerine, only a certain number of people could do it, and by certain number, I mean one, because I’m the only one who could do it, and especially not Kamala, who is a total loser and a total disgrace, and frankly, she couldn’t pull off tangerine even if she wanted to because she is the worst candidate anyone has ever seen, and that’s why she had no chance of winning, with the other being that I was the best candidate anyone has ever seen, and no one has ever seen anything like it.

Charissa Thompson: Wait, but who are you exactly, and why do you want international games?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, everyone knows my name, and if you don’t know my name, it’s because you’re a total fraud and a total loser, much like Kamala, my weak political opponent, and she was so weak that she wasn’t even an opponent, she was pathetic, frankly, the worst candidate to ever run for office, and I was the best, and now I’m here to keep all football games in America, because America is the best country, and all other countries are the worst countries, including Puerto Rico, which is garbage, but garbage is great, and I was a garbage truck driver for one day, they hired me because they thought I’d be great at the job, and I was the best at the job, no one had ever seen anything like it, and I picked up billions and billions of garbage on the street, billions and billions of garbage, and I did it in no time at all, no one had ever seen anything like it, and I was so good they said, “Trump, you can’t pick up garbage anymore because there won’t be anymore left, you can’t do it anymore,” so I won’t be picking up garbage anymore because I was the best at it, and everyone agrees.

Reilly: Wait a second, how is Trump down there with Charissa and also up here at the same time? Are there two Trumps!? Is this how he made up the 15 million votes!? Camel Toe Harris, did you really win?

Kamala Harris: First of all, let’s be clear here. I come from a middle-class family. And in my middle-class family, I wasn’t privileged enough to have two of me. And by two, I mean the number two, which is greater than one. And being from a middle-class family, I know how to accept defeat. That’s right, I accept defeat, but I will not be defeated. I will rise to the top, even if it means bending the knee again, and I will be the best candidate, and I will be unburdened by what has been, and we will be at the top again, even if I’m not on top now because I like being on top, which is not the middle, or the bottom, but the top, which is the highest because it’s the top.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, you are not on the top, you’ll never be on top because you’re on the bottom, in fact, you are at the very bottom, frankly, and you’re even beneath the bottom because you’re a total loser and a total fraud, unlike Trump, who is on top, and not just the top, but the very top, even topper than Top Man, who was the toughest boss in Mega Man until Trump came along, Trump Man, he was the toughest boss in any Mega Man game, because he was the best, and everyone was the worst, and it was impossible to kill him, it would take billions and billions of shots from any weapon, even the Metal Blade, billions and billions of shots, and it wouldn’t be enough, billions and billions of E Tanks used, no one has ever seen anything like it, and Kamala is the opposite, she is Bottom Woman and Trump is Top Man, and that’s exactly where Kamala belongs, she belongs on the bottom, and she is on the bottom, because I put her there.

Wolfley: DONALD, IN THE MEGA MAN 3 EDITION THAT CAME TO MY HOME PLANET, TOP MAN WAS AN IMPOSSIBLE BOSS NO ONE COULD BEAT UNTIL MY FRIEND, A FOUR-EYED TIGER WITH TENNIS BALLS FOR EYES, BEAT IT, AND THEN TWO PEOPLE FROM THE FUTURE, BOTH OF WHOM HAD MEGAPHONES FOR STOMACHS, CAME TO HIM AND SAID HE WAS THE ONLY PERSON WHO BEAT THE GAME, SO THEY BROUGHT HIM ALONG TO BEAT THE BAD GUYS IN THE PAST.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! I don’t know why I have to broadcast this game, anyway. Why do I have to be here in crappy Dallas, especially with you idiots? I should be with my Philadelphia Eagles right now. New Daddy, I’m the head honcho here, so can you make sure the network heads have us broadcast nothing but games with my Philadelphia Eagles?

Jay Cutler: Nachos sound OK, but no sour cream because it reminds me of splooge.

Reilly: I said honcho; not nacho! And what is splooge anyway? New Daddy, I thought you’d be upset that you have to be in Texas as well, especially Dallas.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about cities in Texas, Kevin. You gave us a freebie, Kevin, which is Dallas, Kevin, because we’re here with you, Kevin, even though we don’t want to be, Kevin. What do you think about Houston, Kevin? You can’t forget about San Antonio, Kevin. Home of the Spurs, Kevin. Let’s segue to Austin, Kevin, which is where a lot of idiots live, Kevin. We can now move on to Arlington, Kevin. What about Fort Worth, Kevin? How about El Paso, Kevin? Why not touch on Lubbock, Kevin? Maybe it’s because there’s a university, Kevin, and you are completely uneducated, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, WE SHOULD LEAVE YOU HERE IN THIS HELL HOLE BECAUSE YOU SUCK AND YOU BELONG IN TEXAS WITH THE STUPID COWBOYS AND EVERYTHING ELSE THAT SUCKS! We’ll be back after this!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have dropped consecutive games, and it’s not difficult to understand why. Ever since they lost Stefon Diggs, they’ve been so limited offensively. C.J. Stroud’s only viable offensive threat has been Tank Dell, who isn’t 100 percent because of a recent injury and a gun shot in the offseason.

Fortunately for Stroud, Collins figures to return this week. Collins had a good chance to play against the Lions, but the Texans decided to hold him out for one more week, which was for the best. The Detroit game didn’t matter much, but now that the Texans have lost two in a row, they’re likely going to push it with Collins’ return.

Stroud will have great opportunities to connect with Collins. The Texans run at the highest clip on early downs, and they’ll have success ripping through Dallas’ soft ground defense with Joe Mixon to set up favorable down-and-distance situations.

DALLAS OFFENSE: While the Texans figure to fix their offensive woes in the wake of Collins’ anticipated return, the Cowboys won’t have nearly as much luck. Dak Prescott is done for the year, so Dallas will have to continue on with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance with poor protection, an injured top receiver, and no running game.

The Texans have an excellent defense that will dismantle Dallas’ offense. They’re terrific at generating pressure on the quarterback, which they’ll be able to do. They got after Jared Goff rather well on Sunday night, and Goff is much better protected than the Cowboy quarterbacks.

Houston is at its weakest versus the run, but Dallas doesn’t have the personnel to capitalize on that liability. Rico Dowdle is OK, but the blocking sucks, and Ezekiel Elliott is getting way too much work for some unknown reason.

RECAP: I’ve mentioned this many times this year, including earlier this week: I love fading backup quarterbacks battling top-12 defenses. Oddsmakers don’t make appropriate adjustments for this situation because the public believes that bad quarterbacks will perform the same no matter their opponent. I can’t tell you how many times I heard that Rush would thrive last week despite battling Philadelphia’s top-three defense because he beat some teams with bad defenses in 2022.

Whether it’s Rush or Lance, Dallas’ quarterback doesn’t stand a chance. The Texans have had their struggles this year, but those have come on offense. They’re 10th in adjusted EPA defense. DeMeco Ryans will have a great game plan prepared for Rush or Lance.

I love the Texans in this spot. In addition to having a severe matchup edge, they’ll also be motivated to bounce back from consecutive defeats, both of which occurred on national TV. Their offensive woes should also be resolved in the wake of Collins’ return.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If we get any positive news on Nico Collins, and I see any sort of viable -7, I’m going to lock in the Texans for five units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Good news-bad news for the Texans. The good news is that Nico Collins was full in practice on Friday. The bad news is that Will Anderson hasn’t practiced yet this week. Oh, and there’s great news: Houston is playing Dallas this week!

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in Texans -7. CeeDee Lamb is listed as questionable. My guess is that he will play, but you never know. If Lamb is ruled out, this spread will skyrocket closer to -10. We may lose these -7s soon anyway. The best line is -7 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: I discussed the possibility of a Double NFL Pick of the Month on Saturday’s video. Please subscribe so we can grow the channel!

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I thought about putting more units on this game – the best line now is -7 -114 at Bookmaker – but I’ll bet some alt lines instead. I like -13.5 +200 and -20.5 +480, which can be found on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: How can you not bet Joe Mixon tonight? The Texans run at the highest early-down clip in the NFL, and Dallas sucks against the run. The best number is over 87.5 rushing yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m tossing the Mixon over 89.5 rushing yards prop from FanDuel into a parlay. I’m using FanDuel because some of their other odds are better, including Rico Dowdle over 16.5 receiving yards. We’re also going John Metchie under 14.5 receiving yards and Cooper Rush under 177.5 passing yards. There will be lots of dumpoffs to Dowdle because Dallas will be playing from behind. Metchie had his spike game last week, but with Nico Collins back, he won’t be used nearly as much. And I don’t expect Rush to finish the game. This $25 parlay pays $253.73 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked in -7 -113 because that’s no longer available. The sharps were on the Cowboys a bit at +7.5, but not at +7. The best line is -7 -120 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -5.5.

Computer Model: Texans -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Houston: 77% (247,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Texans are 56-44 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-11 ATS as favorites).

Cowboys are 24-15 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.