2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Falcons at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix did a great job of bouncing back last week. He didn’t have a great game overall, but he engineered a masterful final drive to put the Broncos in position to win. The potential game-winning field goal was blocked, of course.

Nix should be able to put together a strong performance this week, based on the matchup. It’s certainly an easy one, as the Falcons have been a huge disappointment defensively this year. They added so much talent to this side of the ball, yet they can’t cover No. 1 receivers or tight ends, thanks to their inability to get to the quarterback. Nix will have plenty of time in the pocket, thanks to Atlanta’s second-worst pressure rate, so Courtland Sutton figures to have a big game. Lucas Krull would also have a big game if he were any good.

The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, so Denver’s running back switch won’t have too much of an impact. The Broncos have decided to swap in Audric Estime for Javonte Williams, but I don’t think there’s much of a difference in their talent levels.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Broncos are thought of as one of the better defenses in the NFL, but that’s actually not true. They’re ranked 14th in defensive EPA, as the Ravens exposed them as being overrated.

The Broncos can’t cover the middle of the field, so the Falcons have a natural edge in this game with Kyle Pitts. The former No. 4 overall pick is seen as a bust in some circles, but he’s been terrific this season, taking advantage of most of his positive matchups. He should be able to dominate against Denver.

Not everything will work for the Falcons, as Patrick Surtain II will smother Drake London. I don’t expect much from the Falcons’ other receivers, though Bijan Robinson should have a fine performance. Derrick Henry ran well two weeks ago despite Denver’s high ranking against the rush, so Robinson could pick up where Henry left off.

RECAP: I don’t like this game from a betting perspective. I’m really not a fan of either team. The Falcons have long been overrated because their defense is so bad. The Broncos have also been overvalued, as they’ve gotten their wins against teams in bad spots. For example, they got the Buccaneers right after Tampa had beaten the Lions in a playoff revenge game. They upset the Jets when New York had a flight to Europe coming up. They crushed the Saints when New Orleans was missing half of its roster.

I think the Falcons are the better team, so I’m going to side with them. There’s also a chance that the Broncos will be deflated after their blocked field goal loss to the Chiefs, but that’s just speculation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no injuries of note thus far. I’m probably going to be teasing the Falcons up to +8.5.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t like any props in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Broncos. The Falcons won’t have three of their top four cornerbacks. A.J. Terrell will play, but there’s no one else. Plus, this is an NFC South team playing out of the division.

TEASER ADDED: I’m teasing the Falcons and Texans. Atlanta may not cover the +2, but Kirk Cousins could back door the +8 if behind in the fourth quarter. The Texans are obvious. This teaser can be found for -120 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: This line didn’t quite get to -3, with it now falling down to -2. I still think the teaser is the way to go.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I have a slight lean on the Broncos. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -1.5 -110 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Falcons are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 81% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.