2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Jaguars at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff just had the worst performance of his career, and yet his team still won. That’s pretty crazy. Goff was picked on five occasions – four if you discount the Hail Mary – but the Lions rallied against the Texans with a brilliant second half.

I would not expect a repeat performance from Goff. Houston has a top-10 defense, while the Jaguars are 28th. The Texans got after Goff pretty well, but the Jaguars have the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Goff will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate his weapons.

I would anticipate that Jahmyr Gibbs will out-play everyone in Detroit skill group. The Jaguars are miserable when trying to defend pass-catching running backs, and Gibbs obviously thrives in that role. Sam LaPorta would also have a great matchup, but he could be sidelined.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Lions had a tremendous defensive effort in the second half against the Texans. Houston didn’t score a single point. Given that outcome, it’s hard to imagine the Jaguars having any offensive success in this game.

Mac Jones is likely to be the starting quarterback again, so the Jaguars will need to get some production from their running backs to score at all. The issue there is that the Lions are terrific against the rush. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby won’t get anything on the ground.

The Lions will be able to rattle Jones in third-and-long situations. Za’Darius Smith will make his Detroit debut, so the pass rush will improve against an offensive line missing some personnel because of injuries and the Cam Robinson trade.

RECAP: I still can’t believe the Jaguars covered last week. They scored just seven points and were outgained 402-143. It was ridiculous, as any one of Sam Darnold’s interceptions in Jacksonville territory transformed into a field goal would have given us the cover.

Though fading the Jaguars last week didn’t work, I’m going to do it again. Jones is a miserable quarterback and doesn’t stand a chance against a top-12 defense. The Lions are ranked 11th, and they’ll have an injection of talent with Smith taking the field this week. Detroit gets lots of turnovers, so it should force Jones into some mistakes.

The only possible issue is Detroit’s focus off a comeback win, but the team doesn’t have anything to look forward to – it plays the Colts next week – and Goff could be motivated to rebound after a ghastly five-interception performance. Besides, since the lockout, teams that have trailed by 16 or more points at halftime and then prevailed are 16-17-1 against the spread the following week, so there’s really not much to worry about regarding any possible fatigue from Detroit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m locking this in at -13.5 -110 at ESPNBet. This spread has risen to -14 in all sportsbooks except for ESPNBet, so I wanted to get the -13.5 there before it disappeared. Fourteen is the No. 4 key number, so getting -13.5 is crucial. Trevor Lawrence has been announced to be out, so this should be a lopsided game.

PLAYER PROPS: Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught touchdowns in seven consecutive games. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns this year. There’s no Sam LaPorta, so St. Brown will have a better chance of catching a touchdown. There’s a 30-percent profit boost on FanDuel, but has a $25 limit, so if you bet $100 average it out, you get +113 instead of +105. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sam LaPorta is out, but Taylor Decker is returning. I’ll take that trade any day. Also, this has nothing to do with this game, but the Lions are set to get back Emmanuel Moseley or Ifeatu Melifonwu this week or next. That’ll be a huge upgrade to the secondary, given that neither has played all year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Lions earlier in the week when the line was at -12.5 and -13. Those numbers are long gone. The best line now is -13.5 -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -14.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -10.

Computer Model: Lions -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

No surprise.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 85% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Jaguars are 65-109 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 21-53 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Lions -10.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.