2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Ravens at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have the top-ranked offense in the NFL, but there’s reason to believe that they’ll struggle to score in this game. Just look at the previous point totals Lamar Jackson has compiled when battling Pittsburgh: 10, 16, 19, 24, and 14.

How have the Steelers restricted Jackson so well? Ever since Jackson won MVP for the first time in 2019, the Steelers built their roster to contain Jackson. They have very fast edge players who can limit Jackson’s runs to the outside. And we know the plan will work again because Pittsburgh just restricted Jayden Daniels to only five rushing yards.

The Ravens now have Derrick Henry to help counter what the Steelers are doing, but I don’t know how great of a counter this will be. The Steelers are great against the run, with only one rusher (Tyrone Tracy) beating expectations against them this year.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Ravens and Steelers have engaged in some fierce defensive battles over the years, but this game may not be categorized as such this time. While Pittsburgh has maintained a great stop unit, Baltimore is ranked 30th in adjusted defensive EPA.

The Ravens are horrible against the pass. Justin Fields wouldn’t have been able to take full advantage of this liability, but a vivified Russell Wilson may be able to do so. I’m as shocked as anyone, but Wilson has been pretty decent since taking over for Fields. Perhaps this will eventually regress to the mean, but Wilson’s moon balls will have a chance to be complete to George Pickens and Mike Williams, who will see more snaps this week.

Wilson will also be able to attack the middle of the field by throwing to Pat Freiermuth. The Ravens leave the middle of the field wide open, as we just saw when Tanner Hudson went ballistic against them. It’ll all be on Wilson, by the way, given that Baltimore is still stout against the run.

RECAP: We don’t really know where the money is going yet as of Tuesday afternoon, but I’d be shocked if the public didn’t end up pounding Baltimore. Taking the Ravens at -3 seems so easy, after all. Baltimore is everyone’s darling, and no one outside of western Pennsylvania believes in the Steelers.

I’m going to be on Pittsburgh. I believe Baltimore to be overrated because of its horrible secondary. Wilson’s moon balls will have a chance to land against the Ravens’ often-torched cornerbacks. The Steelers have the better defense, and they also have Mike Tomlin. Amazingly, Tomlin is 61-34 against the spread as an underdog. He’s even better as a divisional underdog, owning a 22-10 ATS record.

Also, it must be noted that the Steelers have dominated this rivalry. Pittsburgh built its defense to beat Jackson, and this is why it has defeated the Ravens in seven of the eight matchups since Jackson’s first MVP season. Baltimore’s lone win was by two points.

I like the Steelers a fair amount. I wish we were getting +3.5, which was the advance spread, but +3 is still good enough for a moderate wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams didn’t have a key player in practice on Wednesday, with Kyle Hamilton and Alex Highsmith being DNPs. Highsmith has been ruled out already, and it would be a surprise if Hamilton plays.

PLAYER PROPS: The Ravens have a weak pass defense. They leave the middle of the field wide open, and every tight end destroys them. I like the Pat Freiermuth over receiving yards. The best number is over 25.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kyle Hamilton has no injury designation, which is obviously big for Baltimore. I still like the Steelers for a few units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, while the public has shockingly come in on the Steelers. That’s very surprising. I was hoping for a good +3.5 line. The best one is +3.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

This is a bit shocking.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 72% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 61-34 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Very slight chance of rain, 55 degrees. Light wind.