2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Colts at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: It’s November, which means it’s time for two individuals to duke it out to see who is better. I’m referring to Mega Man 2 battles, of course! Take a look at this AI fight between all of the robots:

I’m not going to spoil it, but I’m shocked by the winner. I will say though that it’s pretty unfair to match up Bubble Man versus Metal Man in Round 1. That’s like a 1 vs. 16 in the NCAA Tournament!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Cardinals don’t have a terrible defense, but I wouldn’t say they have a good one either. Thus, it’s absolutely shocking that the Jets scored only six points last week. With all of their talent, they should have been able to score into the low 20s at the very least.

The Cardinals were able to restrict ethe Jets’ offense by sending blitzes at Aaron Rodgers. This is not something Arizona does frequently, but it did last week, and it worked like a charm. Rodgers hasn’t thrown many interceptions when blitzed this year, but he automatically settles for the closest checkdown possible, which is why his YPA drops by 1.6 when blitzed.

My point in all of this is that Rodgers should have much more success this week because the Colts don’t blitz at all. I don’t trust Gus Bradley to make any adjustments either, so Rodgers will be able to rebound. Rodgers will also be able to lean on his rushing attack, given that Indianapolis is incredibly weak to the rush.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Jets didn’t have the only offense that disappointed last week. The Colts were also a disaster. They scored 20 points, but seven came in the final seconds of garbage time. Joe Flacco was largely to blame, as he threw three interceptions. He could have easily been picked on several other occasions.

Flacco was supposed to be the safe quarterback, so if he performs like this, the Colts might as well go back to Anthony Richardson. This could be Flacco’s final career start, as the Jets have plenty of talent in their secondary. Sauce Gardner and company aren’t having the best seasons, but they also won’t have to worry about Michael Pittman Jr., who is dealing with a back injury.

Like the Jets, the Colts will be able to run the ball. New York is incredibly weak to running backs – both as rushers as pass-catchers – so Jonathan Taylor figures to compile significant yardage to potentially limit Flacco’s turnovers.

RECAP: I normally have interest in good teams that get blown out the previous week. These teams tend to rebound after embarrassing performances for obvious reasons. Some may argue that the Jets aren’t a good team, but they certainly have plenty of talent. Under regular circumstances, I’d be betting them heavily in this favorable spot.

However, I just can’t pull the trigger on a wager. I wrote in my NFL Game Recaps page that the Jets’ loss to Arizona felt like a funeral for the team. Maybe I’m overreacting, but the Jets seemed completely dead. If they were coached well, they could perhaps revive and bounce back with a victory, but the problem is that they’re not coached well. In fact, they’re one of the worst-coached teams in the NFL. They can’t make any adjustments, and they’ve been out-maneuvered in every game.

Despite what I just wrote, I’m going to side with the Jets. I won’t bet them, but I have no desire to back an anemic Flacco, who has become a turnover machine. I also like that Rodgers won’t face much of a blitz this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson will start. This caused the line to drop to +3.5, but then people remembered how bad Richardson is, and the line moved back to +4.

PLAYER PROPS: Anthony Richardson will be desperate to retain his starting job, so I like him to run a lot. The Jets give up lots of rushing yards to mobile quarterbacks. The best number is over 36.5 rushing yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts won’t have two starting offensive linemen, as they’ll be without their left tackle and center. The Jets also won’t have their left tackle, with Tyron Smith sidelined with a neck injury. I still have no strong opinion on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was considering betting the Colts, but they have offensive line injuries. The sharps are on the Jets (at -3.5). This is not a surprise because the sharps have been on the Jets every week. The best line is +4 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.5.

Computer Model: Jets -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-94 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-25 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.