2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Seahawks at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Christian McCaffrey had a mixed debut. He didn’t get too much work in the first half because Kyle Shanahan deemed the conditions to be “too hot.” McCaffrey stood out more in the second half and didn’t get hurt, but then again, he didn’t improve the red zone offense, which has been a huge problem for San Francisco all year. The 49ers went 1-of-3 in the red zone.

McCaffrey should be able to handle more of a workload in his second game back from injury. He’ll have an easy matchup, too, as the Seahawks have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

Brock Purdy will benefit from McCaffrey’s presence. Purdy had a great performance against the Seahawks in the first meeting between these teams anyway. Of Purdy’s weapons, I expect Deebo Samuel to have the best showing. Samuel always torments the Seahawks, and I don’t know why this time would be any different.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks didn’t have as much success against the 49ers in that prior meeting. The score and stats may say otherwise, but the Seahawks were getting blown out in that game. They produced most of their offensive output in garbage time.

The Seahawks fell behind because they couldn’t establish Kenneth Walker on the ground or D.K. Metcalf through the air. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping the run, so I wouldn’t expect Walker’s fortunes to reverse. Walker can, however, do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield because San Francisco allows yards to pass-catching backs.

As for Metcalf, he also doesn’t project well because the 49ers are so stingy to opposing No. 1 receivers. Dating back to Week 3, no top wideout has exceeded expectations against the 49ers. No. 2 receivers have done well, so I’d expect Tyler Lockett to have a rare standout performance.

RECAP: We had a big play on the 49ers back when they played the Seahawks in Week 6. San Francisco, at -3.5, covered easily with a 12-point victory. Are we going to bet the 49ers once again? No. We’ll be on them as a selection, but this will not be a wager.

The 49ers had a couple of edges in the prior matchup that they will not possess this time. First, the initial matchup was on a short week, which is a huge benefit to the superior team. Second, Brandon Aiyuk played in that game. Sure, McCaffrey didn’t play, but it’s not like McCaffrey is 100 percent at the moment.

Speaking of McCaffrey, he was supposed to enhance San Francisco’s red zone offense, which didn’t occur last week. As mentioned earlier, the 49ers were just 1-of-3 in the red zone, and it didn’t help that Jake Moody missed three field goals. Until the 49ers fix their woeful red zone offense, I can’t bet them as a favorite or more than three points unless they’re battling a terrible team. Threes – or zeroes – won’t fly, and that’s why the 49ers couldn’t cover last week.

Then again, I’m not planning on betting the Seahawks either. I don’t think they’re a good team. Their defense sucks, while their blocking is shaky. I like that they’re coming off a bye, but this line isn’t high enough to warrant siding with them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nick Bosa and George Kittle missed Wednesday’s practice, but I won’t be worried about that unless they miss practice on Friday.

PLAYER PROPS: Deebo Samuel destroys the Seahawks every time he plays them. He did earlier this year, and he’ll do it again. The best number is over 55.5 receiving yards -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a lot here. The Seahawks are getting right tackle Abraham Lucas back, but their center, Connor Williams, announced his retirement. So, take the 49ers, right? Well, Nick Bosa barely practiced all week. Trent Williams didn’t practice at all this week. Aaron Banks, a talented guard, saw a downgrade on Friday. George Kittle is questionable. Charvarius Ward is out again. I may be betting on the Seahawks depending on what we see Sunday afternoon.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: George Kittle likely won’t play. The sharps have taken the Seahawks. I may be on Seattle if the 49ers have some unexpected injuries. Check back around 3:15-3:30 Eastern for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Kittle and Charvarius Ward are out, but all of the other questionable 49ers will play. I would stick with the 49ers even though the sharps took Seattle. You can get a solid -5.5 line for -113 vig at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Lots of action on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 68% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.