2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Chiefs at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 8: Miracle at the Las Vegas Airport.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It seemed as though the Chiefs figured out their offensive woes in their Monday night victory against the Buccaneers. Patrick Mahomes had his best game of the season in a 30-point performance. Instead, it was the Chiefs taking advantage of an injury-ravaged defense that wasn’t good in the first place.

The Chiefs laid an egg against the Broncos, but were bailed out by the blocked field goal. Granted, it was a tough matchup, but so is this one. The Bills have the league’s fourth-ranked EPA defense. That’s not even factoring in Matt Milano’s potential return, as Milano has been cleared to practice. He won’t play in this game, barring a miracle, but the Bills still match up very well against Kansas City. They’re only weak to running backs and slot receivers. Kareem Hunt has been solid in fantasy football, but he’s not good in real life. Xavier Worthy, meanwhile, has been a huge disappointment.

Kansas City will obviously want to attack with Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins. The Bills are strong against outside receivers, though they’ve been weaker to tight ends lately. Travis Kelce has been on a tear since Rashee Rice was lost for the season, so he could continue to play at a very high level.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills also have a matchup edge with their tight end. The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends. Dalton Kincaid should be able to take great advantage of this matchup. Kincaid has been a disappointment as a fantasy player this year, but every tight end has crushed the Chiefs, even Isaiah Likely back in Week 1.

The only other area in which the Chiefs are weak is to No. 2 receivers. They tend to double team top threats, so Amari Cooper isn’t expected to do much even if he’s able to return from injury. Keon Coleman would project well, but he’s also hurt. There’s also Khalil Shakir, but the Chiefs have allowed just one slot receiver (Ladd McConkey in Week 4) to beat expectations against them.

The Chiefs are stellar elsewhere. They lock down top receiving threats and the running game. James Cook won’t be able to do much, so Josh Allen may have to scramble more than he would like. Allen hasn’t run much this year compared to prior seasons, but perhaps he’s been saving his legs for big games like this one.

RECAP: I wish I had a strong opinion on this game because it’s the biggest matchup of the regular season. The defending Super Bowl champions will be battling their biggest non-divisional rival in a matchup that could decide the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Who wouldn’t want to bet on that?

The problem is that I just don’t know where to go with it. Common sense says that the Chiefs are the right play. They’re undefeated, and yet they’re 2.5-point underdogs. If all they do is win, wouldn’t it make sense to back them as underdogs?

The public certainly believes the Chiefs are easy money, but there’s a case to be made for Buffalo as well. The Bills built their roster to beat the Chiefs, which they’ve done often in the regular season. Also, Kansas City can’t possibly win every game, so the team is bound to lose eventually. If it’s going to happen, why wouldn’t it against such a great team like the Bills?

I’m going to side with the Bills, but I don’t like the idea of fading Mahomes as an underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved to +2 in some books, perhaps because Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman missed Wednesday’s practice. Amari Cooper was limited.

PLAYER PROPS: Dawson Knox over receiving yards is my favorite player prop bet of the week. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are out, while Amari Cooper is banged up. Josh Allen doesn’t have very many viable threats at his disposal. Also, the Chiefs are abysmal against tight ends. We won easily with Cade Otton two weeks ago, and I think we’ll win easily with Knox this week. The best number is over 25.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills won’t have Keon Coleman or Dalton Kincaid. I’m not too concerned about Kincaid because Dawson Knox could have a big game. Elsewhere, Amari Cooper is questionable after being limited all week. If he’s out as well, it’ll be difficult to back Buffalo.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Fading Patrick Mahomes as an underdog seems foolish, but I really think this could be a blowout. The Buccaneers could have lost to bad teams like the Buccaneers (with no Mike Evans/Chris Godwin), Broncos, and Bengals. The Bills are on a different level, and they designed their team to beat Kansas City.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Chiefs. The sharps are on the Bills. I would still lean toward Buffalo. The best line is -2.5 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.

Computer Model: Bills -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Chiefs are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 91% (130,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 93-24 SU, 63-52 ATS (49-39 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Bills are 31-44 ATS in their last 75 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 50 degrees. Light wind.