2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Redskins at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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Week 10 Analysis: We lost about $1,000 on Sunday. Despite this, I’m proud of my handicapping, save for one game. As usual, we’ve had insane levels of bad luck. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Vikings, 5 units (loss): We begin right away with one of the two horrible-luck games. We had the Vikings at -7, and they won by five. The Vikings outgained the Jaguars, 402-143. They averaged 1.6 more yards per play. They didn’t cover because Sam Darnold threw two interceptions into the end zone, as well as one other pick in Jacksonville territory. Had just one of those three possessions ended in a field goal instead of an interception, we would have covered. The Jaguars did absolutely nothing all afternoon and had no business staying within five.

49ers, 4 units (loss): Here’s the other horrible-luck game. The 49ers were -6, but won by three. They outgained the Buccaneers, 413-215, and they averaged 3.1 more yards per play. Let me repeat: They averaged 3.1 more yards per play! They didn’t cover because their kicker missed three field goals. The 49ers also gave the Buccaneers a free touchdown on a muffed punt. Tampa Bay, mostly like Jacksonville, did nothing all afternoon until the final drive where everyone saw Baker Mayfield stiff-arming Nick Bosa. Amazingly, Jake Moody hit the game-winning field goal to negate overtime and a potential push (or cover if you got -5.5) despite whiffing on three field goals beforehand, where any one of those kicks would have given us a cover/push. Unreal.

Bears, 4 units (loss): Here’s where I screwed up. I completely misread Chicago’s injury situation concerning the offensive line. I somehow missed that the Bears had cluster injuries at tackle. When I opened the Ourlads depth chart while constructing my final thoughts, I saw so much red (injury) on the offensive line that I immediately got scared off and lowered the unit count from five to four. I should have gone straight to zero. This was irresponsible on my part, and I apologize for this horrible mistake.

Chargers, 5 units (win): This was an easy one. The Chargers completely dominated the final three quarters of the game.

Eagles, 3 units (win): This was even easier. I’m disappointed that we didn’t go more than three units on the Eagles.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have possessed one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL this year, but they were a bit stymied last week. They scored 27 points, but seven came on a rare Pittsburgh special teams gaffe. Jayden Daniels hit some big pass plays, but struggled to run. He was limited to five rushing yards.

Daniels will have better success scrambling in this game because the Eagles don’t have T.J. Watt on the edge. However, the Eagles have great talent on the front and can generate lots of pressure on the quarterback. Despite the great success he’s achieved early in his career, Daniels is not protected well, so the blocking could be an issue in this game.

The Eagles tend to cover and play the run well, so I have to wonder how the Redskins will consistently move the chains in this game. Daniels will be in long-distance situations often, so he could be forced into some turnovers as he combats the league’s No. 1 EPA defense.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Redskins also generate pressure at a high clip. Jalen Hurts won’t have to worry as much about this as Daniels, however, because the Eagles have a better offensive line. It’s not as good as it used to be, but it’s a stellar unit that will keep Hurts mostly safe.

There is another reason why Hurts won’t be bothered by the pass rush, and that would be Saquon Barkley. The Redskins have a run-funnel defense, and Barkley will be able to expose this liability. Barkley didn’t even have a huge workload last week because Philadelphia was saving him for this matchup.

Barkley will set up Hurts in favorable down-and-distance situations, which will be key against an improved secondary. Marshon Lattimore didn’t play last week, but there’s a chance that Washington was keeping him out of the lineup to preserve him for this game. Lattimore will be crucial in limiting A.J. Brown, as the Redskins didn’t have a prayer against him prior to the trade deadline.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

Unfortunately, these teams are close to even. I’d give the Eagles the edge with how dominant their defense has been since the bye, but there’s not a wide enough gap between Philadelphia and Washington to designate any sort of edge in this matchup.

However, there is one thing I worry about for the Redskins, and that would be a rookie quarterback preparing for a game in just three days. Hurts has done this before, but Daniels hasn’t. We’ve seen one rookie quarterback play on Thursday night this year. Bo Nix won in a blowout over the Saints, but he didn’t play very well. Denver won in spite of Nix, dominating the severely short-handed Saints.

I’m going to side with the Eagles at -3.5, but I don’t plan on betting this game outside of player props and the same-game parlay. I would have some interest in potentially betting Philadelphia at -3, but those lines quickly disappeared.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brian Robinson and Jordan Mailata are set to return for their respective teams. I’m still leaning toward the Eagles, but don’t plan on betting this game.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Eagles preserved Saquon Barkley last week. They saved him for this matchup, and it’s a good one for Barkley. The Redskins are awful against the run, and Philadelphia figures to be playing from ahead. The best line is over 92.5 rushing yards -110 at FanDuel.

FanDuel also has a special that Evan pointed out to me: Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels to combine for 100+ rushing yards and 2+ rushing touchdowns at +700. This is a primetime game, so I expect both quarterbacks to go all out to win this big game. I’m betting 0.5 units on this.

I’m throwing in Barkley’s rushing yards prop with the following: Dallas Goedert over 33.5 receiving yards, A.J. Brown under 5.5 receptions, Zach Ertz over 33.5 receiving yards. Both tight ends have good matchups, so I think they’ll both perform well. As for Brown, he makes big plays, but has just one game with more than five catches this year. This $25 parlay pays $224.06 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Mailata and Brian Robinson will play, but the Redskins won’t have Marshon Lattimore. This would sway me to bet the Eagles at -3, but not -3.5. The thing is, -3.5 isn’t even available anymore, as some sharp action on Philadelphia brought the line up to -4 in some places. The best vig is the standard -110 found at BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 59% (269,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .