College Football Picks (Week 1, 2015): 4-1 (+$490) College Football Picks (Week 2, 2015): 2-3 (-$40) College Football Picks (Week 3, 2015): 3-2 (+$270) College Football Picks (Week 4, 2015): 4-1 (+$690) College Football Picks (Week 5, 2015): 2-3 (-$250) College Football Picks (Week 6, 2015): 2-3 (-$370) College Football Picks (Week 7, 2015): 1-4 (-$580) College Football Picks (Week 8, 2015): 2-3 (-$160) College Football Picks (Week 9, 2015): 1-4 (-$780) College Football Picks (Week 10, 2015): 2-3 (-$350) College Football Picks (Week 11, 2015): 2-3 (-$250) College Football Picks (Week 12, 2015): 4-1 (+$480) College Football Picks (Week 13, 2015): 1-4 (-$680) College Football Picks (Week 14, 2015): 3-2 (+$170) College Football Picks (Bowls 1, 2015): 3-2 (+$170) College Football Picks (Bowls 2, 2015): 4-2 (+$980)
College Football Picks (2015 Season): 42-44 (-$560) College Football Picks (2014 Season): 46-39-1 (-$325) College Football Picks (2013 Season): 52-33 (+$3,970) College Football Picks (2012 Season): 45-34-1 (+$2,500) College Football Picks (2011 Season): 36-32-2 (-$390) College Football Picks (2010 Season): 37-31-2 (+$190) College Football Picks (2009 Season): 34-34-2 (-$3,820) College Football Picks (2008 Season): 49-38 (+$3,020)
Indiana vs. Duke. Line: Indiana by 3. Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
As a disclaimer, don't go nuts with my college football picks. I'm much better at picking NFL games (which is saying a lot). Follow @walterfootball for updates.
This is a confusing spread because Duke is the better team. The public has bet up Indiana all the way to -3, so let's take advantage of that. The Hoosiers were unimpressive at times in the always-overrated Big Ten, while Duke could've been in a much better bowl if it wasn't for that ridiculous Miami game that prompted a free fall. Blue Devils head coach David Cutcliffe has a 6-2 ATS bowl record, so let's ride that to victory.
College Football Pick: Duke +3 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Nebraska vs. UCLA. Line: UCLA by 6.5. Saturday, 9:15 p.m.
At one point, it appeared as though UCLA was going to be one of the teams in the Pac-12 championship. Their dreams were dashed, and now they're playing in some stupid Foster Farms Bowl. Nebraska, meanwhile, is one of those undeserving 5-7 squads that will be happy to play in a meaningless post-Christmas bowl, so I like their chances. It's worth noting that Nebraska head coach Mike Riley is 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in bowls.
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College Football Pick: Nebraska +6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Wisconsin vs. USC. Line: USC by 3.5. Wednesday, 10:30 p.m.
I love getting the hook here, as Wisconsin is better and more motivated. The Trojans were in the Pac-12 championship, meaning they were one victory away from playing in the Rose Bowl, as if that really means anything. Instead, they're stuck taking on a Wisconsin squad that has a lot to prove after some 50-50 games didn't go their way during the regular season.
College Football Pick: Wisconsin +3.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Oklahoma vs. Clemson. Line: Oklahoma by 4. Thursday, 4:00 p.m.
And now, we get to the first of three postseason college football games that actually mean something. I have to believe that Clemson feels extremely disrespected, given that they are four-point underdogs despite being undefeated. I really don't get it. Who went and crowned Oklahoma the top team in the land? The Sooners lost to Texas and then beat up on crappy Big XII schools that were missing their starting quarterbacks. Bob Stoops always loses big games (7-9 ATS in bowls), and I can't see him coming up with a victory here.
College Football Pick: Clemson +4 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Michigan State vs. Alabama. Line: Alabama by 10. Thursday, 8:00 p.m.
Oh cool, a New Year's Eve game at 8 p.m. that every single man in a relationship won't be able to watch. Thanks, NCAA! I won't be viewing this live, but I have to imagine that the Spartans will cover. Mark Dantonio has a fantastic record as an underdog, and he also happens to be 6-3 ATS in bowl games. I've been fading the Spartans most of this year, but only when they've been in the role of a favorite. I love them getting points. My only reservation is that they happen to be a public dog, but I still believe they're the right side.
College Football Pick: Michigan State +10 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Clemson vs. Alabama. Line: Alabama by 7. Monday, 8:30 p.m.
When I heard the two ESPN announcers continuously gush about how great Alabama was in the second half of the semi-final blowout, I knew I was going to be betting Clemson. The question was for how many units.
I'd say three sounds good to me. The Tigers should not be getting a touchdown. This number is ridiculously inflated. They're the No. 1 team in the country, so they have to be feeling incredibly disrespected by this spread. They have a huge chip on their shoulder because no one believes in them.
Meanwhile, Alabama has been hearing about how great they are. They practically don't even need to show up because everyone thinks they're guaranteed a victory. The Tide is great, don't get me wrong, but not seven points better than Clemson on a neutral field. Alabama did demolish Michigan State, but so what? I've been writing how overrated the Spartans have been all year. They nearly lost to Purdue, Rutgers and other terrible teams. Clemson will be much more competitive. The Tigers could even win.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has pounded Alabama this entire time, yet the sharps have bet this down from +7 to +6.5. Bovada is still listing this at +7, so I'm still going to bet three units on Clemson. As I wrote earlier, this spread is out of control, based on what happened New Year's Eve. Could the Tide win by more than a touchdown? Sure, but these teams are closer than what this spread is. Had Alabama played a legitimate opponent rather than Michigan State in the semi-finals, this spread might be -3, or something.