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NCAA Football Weekly Predictions
Week 4



Note: I've gone 11-6 the past two weeks. That's OK, but could be better. Double Money Picks (plays 4-Units or higher) are only 7-7 this year. Blah. For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling.



East Carolina (1-2) at West Virginia (3-0)
Line: West Virginia by 24.5.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

This could be a potential flat spot for West Virginia, coming off a road victory at Maryland and looking ahead to upstart Big East opponent South Florida. East Carolina's record isn't indicative of how well they've played this year; the Pirates' two losses have come at the hands of nationally ranked Virginia Tech and Conference USA favorite Southern Miss. Both contests were close.

Prediction: West Virginia 38, East Carolina 21
East Carolina +24.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
West Virginia 48, East Carolina 7



North Carolina (1-2) at South Florida (2-0)
Line: South Florida by 13.5.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

South Florida is known for its huge upset over Auburn two weeks ago, but they barely beat Elon before that, 28-13. I'm not saying the Bulls shouldn't be nationally ranked; I just think being favored by 13.5 over an OK North Carolina squad is a bit of stretch.

Prediction: South Florida 21, North Carolina 13
North Carolina +13.5 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
South Florida 37, North Carolina 10



Army (1-2) at Boston College (3-0)
Line: Boston College by 26.5.

Saturday, 1:00 ET

After three tough victories over ACC opponents Wake Forest, N.C. State and Georgia Tech, the Eagles enjoy a break against Army. They'll obviously win, but I don't see them covering. The Cadets are only 1-2, but they've fought hard in each of their three contests, losing to the Demon Deacons last week by only 11 points.

Prediction: Boston College 27, Army 10
Army +26.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Boston College 37, Army 17



Penn State (3-0) at Michigan (1-2)
Line: Penn State by 3.

Saturday, 3:30 ET

I know that Penn State is ranked 10th in the "real" polls and sixth on this site, and Michigan has been horrible this year, but I just don't understand how the Nittany Lions can be favored, given that they haven't beaten the Wolverines since 1996. Michigan lost its first pair of games for two reasons: They couldn't stop the spread offense and Chad Henne sucked big time. Penn State doesn't utilize the spread attack, but its defense will definitely put pressure on whomever is under center for Michigan (Henne is doubtful).

Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington are scary, but Penn State has the top pair of corners in all the Big Ten, Justin King and Lydell Sargeant. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions' prolific linebacking corps will contain Mike Hart. I certainly wouldn't put too much on Penn State, given that it hasn't slayed this archrival in 11 years, but I can't side with the Wolverines.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Michigan 23
Penn State -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Michigan 14, Penn State 9



Michigan State (3-0) at Notre Dame (0-3)
Line: Michigan State by 12.5.

Saturday, 3:30 ET

At the beginning of the season, would you have ever thought that Michigan State would be a double-digit favorite at Notre Dame? I can't believe how far the Fighting Irish have fallen. Some of the pundits on TV are calling this the worst team in Division 1-A.

While I would agree this Notre Dame squad is horrific, let's concede that they've played against two really good teams (Michigan was ranked No. 5 but lost to two schools who utilize the spread offense) and another solid squad in Georgia Tech. Michigan State sucks compared to those three. The Spartans barely beat Bowling Green and Pittsburgh. The latter couldn't even throw the ball and was snapping it to its running back half the time, yet Michigan State won by a margin of only four.

This is a huge battle for the Fighting Irish. They're double-digit home dogs. They've completely embarrassed themselves three weeks in a row. And this is actually the first winnable game on their schedule.

Prediction: Notre Dame 13, Michigan State 10
Notre Dame +12.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 14



Kentucky (3-0) at Arkansas (1-1)
Line: Arkansas by 6.5.

Saturday, 6:00 ET

I'm lazy. Let me just copy-paste what I've written the past three weeks for my Kentucky selection:

"I've mentioned this so many times my wrists and fingers are starting to hurt. Kentucky is one of the most underrated teams in the nation, and I plan on betting on them until the public realizes how good they are."

Still no respect for the team that houses arguably the best quarterback in the country. I love getting 6.5 with Andre' Woodson over Casey Dick. In fact, this reminds me of last week's Boston College-Georgia Tech battle. Matt Ryan, despite being superior to the Yellow Jackets' signal caller, was a 7-point dog. Same situation here.

Prediction: Kentucky 34, Arkansas 24
Kentucky +6.5 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
Kentucky 42, Arkansas 29



New Mexico State (2-1) at Auburn (1-2)
Line: Auburn by 17.

Saturday, 7:00 ET

I feel it is my duty as an American citizen to bet against Brandon Cox, the worst quarterback in Division I-A. I swear, this guy's color-blind; he just throws it to whomever is closest to him. His first two passes against woeful Mississippi State were interceptions. Horrible. I barely know anything about New Mexico State - Chase Holbrook aside - but if the Aggies don't cover the 17 they should just give up on life.

Prediction: New Mexico State 17, Auburn 16
New Mexico State +17 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Auburn 55, New Mexico State 20



Washington (2-1) at UCLA (2-1)
Line: UCLA by 6.5.

Saturday, 10:15 ET

Ohio State dominated Washington on the scoreboard, but the Huskies dropped two interceptions and returned a fumble for a touchdown that was foolishly overturned by inept referees. The Huskies could have won that game, and I think they'll cover the 6.5 on the road. I like Jake Locker over Ben Olsen, and I also favor Ty Willingham over Karl Dorrell.

Prediction: Washington 24, UCLA 20
Washington +6.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
UCLA 44, Washington 31


Second-Half Bets
Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

  • Navy -10 +110 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Miami of Ohio +7 -120 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
  • Northwestern +10 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Rice +14 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Oregon -13 +100 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200





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