College Football Picks (Weeks 1-2, 2008): 6-6 (-$50) College Football Picks (Week 3, 2008): 3-2 (+$780) College Football Picks (Week 4, 2008): 3-2 (+$340) College Football Picks (Week 5, 2008): 2-3 (+$10) College Football Picks (Week 6, 2008): 3-2 (-$370) College Football Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-1 (+$470)
By the way, the second-annual Walter/Joker Annual Challenge is on, as I'll be competing with the Joker's College Picks. We each pick five games and see who does the best each week.
BYU (6-0) at TCU (6-1) Line: TCU by 1. Thursday, 8:00 ET
If you've been following my college picks for a while, you know that I love this system. Going with a live home dog on a weeknight under the lights with the money going against them almost always works out. BYU opened up as a 1.5-point favorite. Despite the fact that about 80 percent of the action is on them, the line has moved, and TCU is now favored.
It almost seems too easy for casual bettors - the Cougars, talked about as national title contenders, are underdogs! Easy money, right? Not really.
Vanderbilt (5-1) at Georgia (5-1) Line: Georgia by 14.5. Saturday, 12:30 ET
Vanderbilt's a publicly backed underdog, so it doesn't really have a good chance of covering. The Commodores suffered their first loss of the year last week, meaning their season no longer has any meaning, given that they have no shot at the national title. They won't show up, and Georgia will simply overpower them.
Kansas (5-1) at Oklahoma (5-1) Line: Oklahoma by 20.5. Saturday, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma lost, so its national championship hopes have been flushed down the toilet. Coming off such an emotional defeat, how are the Sooners supposed to get up for this game? This contest means much more to Kansas' program than it does to Oklahoma's. I think the Sooners win this contest, but sleepwalk through it.
Michigan (2-4) at Penn State (7-0) Line: Penn State by 23. Saturday, 4:30 ET
Penn State has Ohio State next week, so there's no way they're going to be focused for this game. Michigan keeps this close!
Unless you're a Penn State fan, you may not realize how much a victory here means to the Nittany Lions. Michigan has been a thorn in Penn State's side for more than a decade now. The Wolverines were the only team to knock off the Nittany Lions in 2005 when former head coach Lloyd Carr paid off official Dave Witvoet to give his team more time on the clock. Chad Henne connected with Mario Manningham with one second on the clock to seal an unwarranted victory.
Penn State hasn't beaten Michigan since 1995. Well, this season, Michigan is complete garbage. Like a shark smelling blood in the water, the Nittany Lions will devour an abysmal Wolverines squad when it's down. This one could get very ugly.
Prediction: Penn State 73, Michigan 0 Penn State -23 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400 Penn State 46, Michigan 17
LSU (4-1) at South Carolina (5-2) Line: LSU by 3. Saturday, 8:00 ET
Most sportsbooks have this line at -2.5, but as I'm writing this, you can get +3 at Bodog, Skybook and WSEX.
I need to decide on my October College Football Pick of the Month. I doubt I'm going to like anything next week as much as I like this contest. I'll list why I believe South Carolina is the right side:
1. LSU Flat: The Tigers just lost their first game of the year. They were a national title contender, but a huge loss to Florida pretty much put an end to that. So, what does LSU have to play for? A meaningless Sugar Bowl? Who cares? College football is such a farce that top 25 teams that lose their first game of the year can't recover the following week.
LSU is in such a situation. I never believed in them this year anyway. I went against them when they played Auburn, and unfortunately for me, they achieved a lucky win. From then on, they failed to cover against Mississippi State and obviously Florida.
I can't see the Tigers bringing any sort of intensity to the table here.
2. South Carolina Hyped: On the opposite end of the spectrum, this game means a lot to the Gamecocks. Their season is already over - they realized this back in September when they lost to Vanderbilt on the road - but beating a top-ranked team like LSU could somehow validate their 2008 campaign.
South Carolina is playing a night game in front of tens of thousands of drunk fans. They'll clearly outmatch LSU in emotion and intensity - which is what football is all about.
3. The Vegas: With 80 percent of the money on LSU, this line has dropped in many sportsbooks from -3 to -2.5. The public is pounding the Tigers like they know the score of this game.
"Taking awesome LSU who's due to bounce back to beat crappy South Carolina by just a field goal? Easy money! Happy time!"
If so much action is already on LSU's side, why would Vegas want even more money on the visitor? It's like the books know something the public doesn't. How's that for a concept?
Prediction: South Carolina 20, LSU 14 South Carolina +3 (7 Units - October College Football Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$770 LSU 24, South Carolina 17