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College Football Picks: Week 3, 2009



College Football Picks (Week 1, 2009): 3-2 (+$350)
College Football Picks (Week 2, 2009): 2-3 (-$710)
College Football Picks (Week 3, 2009): 1-3-1 (-$590)

College Football Picks (2009 Season): 6-8-1 (-$950)
College Football Picks (2008 Season): 49-38 (+$3,020)

By the way, the third-annual Walter/Joker Annual Challenge is on, as I'll be competing with the Joker's College Picks. We each pick five games and see who does the best each week.



California (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0)
Line: California by 14.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

Week 3 Notes: Argh. I've had some tough beats the past two weeks (not bad beats; tough beats):

  • I had Florida Atlantic +20.5 and they trailed just 17-16 at halftime. Florida Atlantic lost by 22.
  • I had Louisiana Tech +7.5. They were up 14-0, but didn't score a single point after that and lost 32-14.
  • I had California -14. They were up 14-0 and 21-7, but they decided to stop giving the ball to Jahvid Best. Cal pushed.

    I'm not saying I deserved to win those games, but it was very frustrating to lose like that. Hopefully I'll have more luck going forward.

    The last time Cal traveled out East, they arrived in Maryland the night before the game. They ate dinner, went to sleep and played the game the next morning. They got out to a slow start and ultimately lost 35-27.

    This year, Jeff Tedford is heading out to Minnesota on Thursday to have his players more prepared.

    Either way, Cal has the talent to rip Minnesota to shreds. I hate the idea of laying double digits on the road, but the disparity in talent between these two teams is enormous.

    Prediction: California 45, Minnesota 14
    California -14 (2 Units) -- Push; $0
    California 35, Minnesota 21






    Ohio State (1-1) at Toledo (1-1)
    Line: Ohio State by 20.5.

    Saturday, 12:00 ET

    This is a tough spot for the Buckeyes. Their national championship hopes came crashing down in an emotional loss to USC. Now, they have to go a high-powered Toledo squad that just knocked off Colorado at home.

    Ohio State may sleepwalk through this game. I think back to the Buckeyes' similar loss against Texas in 2005, and how they failed to cover against San Diego State the following week. We could see a similar performance here.

    Prediction: Ohio State 27, Toledo 17
    Toledo +20.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Ohio State 38, Toledo 0





    Michigan State (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-1)
    Line: Notre Dame by 10.

    Saturday, 3:30 ET

    Notre Dame should have beaten Michigan. If Shaquille O'Evans catches the ball on a third-down play of the Irish's penultimate drive, the game ends. However, Michigan was able to put together a great winning drive to ruin Lou Holtz's dream of watching Notre Dame win the championship.

    It's going to be tough for Notre Dame to come back from that sort of a defeat.

    Meanwhile, this game means a lot to Michigan State. This is a huge rivalry in which the underdog usually covers (7-4 ATS last 11 years). I love getting double digits in a heated matchup like this one.

    Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 31
    Michigan State +10 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Notre Dame 33, Michigan 30






    Connecticut (1-1) at Baylor (1-0)
    Line: Baylor by 10.5.

    Saturday, 5:00 ET

    The Huskies had a 10-0 lead late in the game against North Carolina last week, but blew it, ultimately losing on a safety, 12-10.

    Bouncing back from a tough defeat like that is going to be difficult, especially against an underrated Baylor team that has some phenomenal athletes.

    Prediction: Baylor 31, Connecticut 10
    Baylor -10.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Connecticut 30, Baylor 22



    Florida Atlantic (0-1) at South Carolina (1-1)
    Line: South Carolina by 20.5.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    This is a weird game. South Carolina just played an ACC team and an SEC team, and now they get this random Florida Atlantic squad coming in out of nowhere.

    I just don't see how the Gamecocks can get up for this matchup, especially after an emotional loss at Georgia. Seriously, no one's going to pat South Carolina on the back for a victory here, and it's not like they need a tune-up game after two tough contests.

    Florida Atlantic has a very good quarterback in Rusty Smith, so they're not just some deadbeat squad. South Carolina, meanwhile, doesn't have an offense that can score consistently, so asking them to beat a 20.5-point spread could be too much.

    Prediction: South Carolina 24, Florida Atlantic 14
    Florida Atlantic +20.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    South Carolina 38, Florida Atlantic 16



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    2004 Against the Spread: 57-51-2 (52.8%)
    2006 Against the Spread: 112-103-4 (52.1%)
    2007 Picks Against the Spread: 73-65-3, 52.9% (+$1,030)
    2008 College Football Picks: 49-38, 56.3% (+$3,020)
    2009 College Football Picks: 35-38-3, 50.0% (-$4,770)
    2010 College Football Picks: 37-31-2, 54.4% (+$190)
    2010 College Football Picks: 3-2, 60.0% (+$50)

    2004 2-3 Unit College Picks: 20-13-1 (60.7%)
    2006 2-3 Unit College Picks: 60-56-1 (51.7%)
    2007 2-3 Unit College Picks: 43-36-2, 54.4% (+$1,280)
    2008 2-3 Unit College Picks: 23-20, 53.5% (+$650)
    2009 2-3 Unit College Picks: 20-19-3, 54.1% (-$780)

    2006 4-5 Unit College Picks: 13-16 (44.8%)
    2007 4-5 Unit College Picks: 20-17-2, 54.1% (+$810)
    2008 4-5 Unit College Picks: 13-10, 56.5% (+$860)
    2009 4-5 Unit College Picks: 9-16, 39.1% (-$4,140)

    2006 NCAA Picks of the Month: 1-0 (100%)
    2007 NCAA Picks of the Month: 2-1-1, 66.7% (+$580)
    2008 College Football Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,260)
    2009 College Football Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career College Football Picks: 471-429-15, 52.3% (+$40)
    Career 2-3 Unit College Picks: 192-160-6, 54.5% (+$2,810)
    Career 4-5 Unit College Picks: 60-64-2, 48.4% (-$2,650)
    Career Picks of the Month: 9-6-1, 60.0% (+$930)


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